Official 2022 QB Thread

[THE DUKE]

Willis' passes will look super impressive as they sail into the hands of the free safety.

[Ragnarok]

2 minutes ago, THE DUKE said:

Willis' passes will look super impressive as they sail into the hands of the free safety.

I dont think free safeties play that far back.

[Daniel]

14 hours ago, AkronsWitness said:

I havent been paying close attention at all to the draft this year, but I agree. Unfortunately teams will reach because of need and pressure. 

I dont understand Willis' meteroric rise to the potential #2 overall pick. He is 6'0 tall--which is actually shorter than Baker Mayfield who everybody and their mother knocked for his height. Maybe he some sort of small school prodigy like Josh Allen? Well....no, hes not that either. He has a poor completion % his passing stats dont jump off the page at all. He was also 36th in CFB QBR.

He is like the far less talented and worse version of Kyler Murray.

I just dont get it with him--or any of these prospects for that matter. They are all Day 2-3 talents in my mind and I would be scared to death if my team had to pick a QB this year.

If I had to pick 1 QB that stands the best chance at success, it would be Desmond Ridder, but even then I dont think he is a top 15 pick.

Well, there's your first problem.  It seems like you're just looking at his stats.

Willis is a traits guy, pure and simple.  He has what will be one of the strongest arms in the NFL while also being one of the fastest runners in the NFL.  Those two things by themselves are valuable.  Teams are willing to gamble that they can polish up his mechanics, because if they do, they'll have a little Michael Vick clone running around.

You also keep comparing him to Baker, and OK fine.  Baker went first overall.  If they're remotely comparable, then I don't see why it's such a stretch to put Willis in the first round.

11 hours ago, Trojan said:

I absolutely do not understand why people are so low on Sam Howell. Gil Brant's "Hot Prospects" article on NFL.com has Howell like 74th or something like that. Is that consensus-ish? He's a third rounder to people if you remove positional value? I feel like 30-40 overall with positional value removed is much more correct and take as early as needed is fine given positional value. If I was a Lions fans and they took him #2 overall I wouldn't be mad about it, and 32nd overall I would say it's a bargain as it's near BPA and with positional value and 5th year option is a steal. I get he isn't going to truck (most) NFL players, but I feel like people then make his athleticism a negative or something because it's not what his rushing numbers would imply. His arm talent is definitely first round caliber. His football character is elite. His college system is goofy, but others have transitioned fine it's not the old "Mike Leech QB = can't transition to pro-style". Because of the system reads might take a bit to develop, but what QB doesn't need to develop that entering the NFL?

edit: Additionally maybe people think he's too small at 6 foot or 6'1" or whatever and 220ish, but then in a following breathe people suggest wait for Bryce Young... what's up with that?

I'm not a Howell fan because he lacks a lot of traits you'd like to see in a prospect while also doing a lot of things in college that he won't be able to do in the NFL.

His hands, height, and arm length are all less than what you want with an adequate arm, decent ability to read a field, and acceptable accuracy.  He made some throws into tight windows, but not very many.

I hear his intangibles are great, so OK, sure.  But his offense had him mostly throwing to wide open receivers, he had ball security issues, and bad pocket awareness in the tape I watched.  He also tried to run through contact, which he was able to do in college and it looked impressive and all, but that will not translate to the NFL.  He'll have to elude contact more, and that's something I remember Jake Locker struggled with a lot early in his career.  Led to lots of injuries.

Lots of detriments IMO, and not a ton of upside.

[MWil23]

26 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Willis is a traits guy, pure and simple.  He has what will be one of the strongest arms in the NFL while also being one of the fastest runners in the NFL.  Those two things by themselves are valuable.  Teams are willing to gamble that they can polish up his mechanics, because if they do, they'll have a little Michael Vick clone running around.

IMO he's ideally suited for the late first round to a team who needs a raw prospect at QB who can be groomed by a vet. That would be a team LIKE the Colts, Bucs, etc.

TBH, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Colts snag him if they think he can thrive in that RPO system and running game under Reich. It would certainly give them another dimension and solve their "hey look, another QB!" issue they've had the past 5-6 years.

[CWood21]

3 hours ago, AkronsWitness said:

lol no he doesnt. Baker has a cannon--his ability to read defenses and adjust is terrible and he has a lot of knocks, but arm strength is not one of them. He also holds the record for longest pass in NFL history.

Just seems like a lot of people trying to talk theirselves into Willis when in reality....even in a average QB draft he is a late 2nd round QB talent.

Willis definitely has the stronger arm, although that's not a knock on Mayfield by any stretch.

[MWil23]

2 hours ago, THE DUKE said:

Mayfield also has better accuracy and can, you know, read an NFL defense, something i'm not very confident in for Willis.

Baker cannot read a defense, especially pressure. He can't even read 1 vs. 2 high safety looks (see: New England).

[Forge]

13 hours ago, Trojan said:

I absolutely do not understand why people are so low on Sam Howell. Gil Brant's "Hot Prospects" article on NFL.com has Howell like 74th or something like that. Is that consensus-ish? He's a third rounder to people if you remove positional value? I feel like 30-40 overall with positional value removed is much more correct and take as early as needed is fine given positional value. If I was a Lions fans and they took him #2 overall I wouldn't be mad about it, and 32nd overall I would say it's a bargain as it's near BPA and with positional value and 5th year option is a steal. I get he isn't going to truck (most) NFL players, but I feel like people then make his athleticism a negative or something because it's not what his rushing numbers would imply. His arm talent is definitely first round caliber. His football character is elite. His college system is goofy, but others have transitioned fine it's not the old "Mike Leech QB = can't transition to pro-style". Because of the system reads might take a bit to develop, but what QB doesn't need to develop that entering the NFL?

edit: Additionally maybe people think he's too small at 6 foot or 6'1" or whatever and 220ish, but then in a following breathe people suggest wait for Bryce Young... what's up with that?

The scariest thing for me with Howell is that he has the pocket awareness of a cabbage in a pretty easy offense. The Baker comp is legit in my opinion. I see a guy that is going to really have issues dealing with pressure at the next level

[tyler735]

57 minutes ago, Daniel said:

Well, there's your first problem.  It seems like you're just looking at his stats.

Willis is a traits guy, pure and simple.  He has what will be one of the strongest arms in the NFL while also being one of the fastest runners in the NFL.  Those two things by themselves are valuable.  Teams are willing to gamble that they can polish up his mechanics, because if they do, they'll have a little Michael Vick clone running around.

You also keep comparing him to Baker, and OK fine.  Baker went first overall.  If they're remotely comparable, then I don't see why it's such a stretch to put Willis in the first round.

I'm not a Howell fan because he lacks a lot of traits you'd like to see in a prospect while also doing a lot of things in college that he won't be able to do in the NFL.

His hands, height, and arm length are all less than what you want with an adequate arm, decent ability to read a field, and acceptable accuracy.  He made some throws into tight windows, but not very many.

I hear his intangibles are great, so OK, sure.  But his offense had him mostly throwing to wide open receivers, he had ball security issues, and bad pocket awareness in the tape I watched.  He also tried to run through contact, which he was able to do in college and it looked impressive and all, but that will not translate to the NFL.  He'll have to elude contact more, and that's something I remember Jake Locker struggled with a lot early in his career.  Led to lots of injuries.

Lots of detriments IMO, and not a ton of upside.

Gave a football for the 1st part regarding Willis. Have some qualms with the 2nd regarding Howell. I think he has a better arm than you give him credit for. I think he has a pretty good arm to go along with some plus athletic ability. That said, I also have some questions about him in regards to pocket awareness, being able to handle more complex reads, and anticipating throws/throwing his guy open. 

[Danger]

Just running through some comparisons I have thought of recently.

Desmond Ridder -> Jordan Love
Matt Corral -> Kirk Cousins

Doesn't mean their careers will take the same trajectories, but I feel like they're pretty sound.

[jebrick]

48 minutes ago, Danger said:

Just running through some comparisons I have thought of recently.

Desmond Ridder -> Jordan Love
Matt Corral -> Kirk Cousins

Doesn't mean their careers will take the same trajectories, but I feel like they're pretty sound.

I think Corral -> Alex Smith but Cousins works.

Corral scares me because it seems that he does not have confidence in his arm to fit the ball into tight windows.

[Falconof Shadows]

On 4/7/2022 at 2:39 PM, jebrick said:

I think Corral -> Alex Smith but Cousins works.

Corral scares me because it seems that he does not have confidence in his arm to fit the ball into tight windows.

I don't think I can agree with this. Watching his tape I've seen him thrown plenty of tight throws. My concerns are the lack of throws outside the numbers. Not just him not throwing to WRs outside allot but the lack of routes I see. I think I saw 3 out routes in 5 games. Is that Corral, the scheme, or the scheme because of Corral

[NYRaider]

Willis had more broken tackles than any player in college football last season. 

[NYRaider]

What do you guys think about Carson Strong? 

[NYRaider]

On 4/6/2022 at 5:07 PM, AkronsWitness said:

I dont understand Willis' meteroric rise to the potential #2 overall pick. He is 6'0 tall--which is actually shorter than Baker Mayfield who everybody and their mother knocked for his height. Maybe he some sort of small school prodigy like Josh Allen? Well....no, hes not that either. He has a poor completion % his passing stats dont jump off the page at all. He was also 36th in CFB QBR.

He is like the far less talented and worse version of Kyler Murray.

I just dont get it with him--or any of these prospects for that matter. They are all Day 2-3 talents in my mind and I would be scared to death if my team had to pick a QB this year.

If I had to pick 1 QB that stands the best chance at success, it would be Desmond Ridder, but even then I dont think he is a top 15 pick.

He has an absolute cannon for an arm and is special as a runner/making plays outside the script of the offense. In two years as a starter Allen had 44 TD/21 INT/56% comp, while Willis had 48 TD/18 INT/62% comp. 

[AkronsWitness]

1 hour ago, NYRaider said:

He has an absolute cannon for an arm and is special as a runner/making plays outside the script of the offense. In two years as a starter Allen had 44 TD/21 INT/56% comp, while Willis had 48 TD/18 INT/62% comp. 

I'm sorry I just don't see it. In last year's draft he would have been arguably the 7th QB taken in probably the 3rd round as a project.

He's 6ft tall, has a poor college career completion percentage and had 5 games with less than 175 yards passing last year. People want to make it sound like his attributes outweigh his measurements and production when in reality they don't IMO.

If your going to be successful as a 6ft tall QB out of a nothing school you better be a special athlete, but he's not Kyle Murray athletic. If your not a freak athletic you better have incredible touch/accuracy from the pocket, but hes nowhere close to Brees as a traditional passer.

Do we know if he can go through multiple reads? Read a defense? Make tight window throws in coverage? Because right now it just sounds like everybody is trying to sell the fact that he is fun outside the pocket and has a cannon. Which sounds like Trey Lances film which was nothing but running around in circles and throwing deep balls to wide open WRs against Juco level opponents.

Like where does he fall? Because right now I think he is a dollar store Kyler Murray. He's Kyler Murray as a prospect but considerably worse at everything. Am I wrong on that?

Maybe my dislike with him is too strong and I'm completely wrong, idk. Correction: I don't dislike him--i just think people are trying to hype him into being a prospect he isnt 

Edited April 11, 2022 by AkronsWitness