Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[mission27]

30 minutes ago, vikesfan89 said:

Does wearing make effect people with asthma and other breathing problems?

Maybe if you're having an active asthma attack otherwise probably not a huge deal

[seriously27]

5 hours ago, theJ said:

This is the wrong take.  The people who we should be mad at are those applying pressure to DeWine to reverse the order.  

Disagree. This guy is an appointed leader. It's his decision in the end and an appointed leader who succumbs to bad leadership because of pressure is just as much to blame as anyone, if not more so. 

[kingseanjohn]

4 hours ago, TLO said:

I really thought this post was gonna end with the tailored suit not fitting you post quarantine tbh

It still could tbh. He hasn't picked it up and put it on yet.

[mission27]

9 hours ago, mission27 said:

Warning to everyone

Deaths will be higher today than they were the last two days. More deaths are reported every day other than Sunday or Monday.  And Tuesday seems to be a big day every week (likely because some states are processing backlog of reported deaths from the weekend).

Please be aware of this when you read the headlines tonight of "deaths spike again"

The only valid point of reference is 7 day trailing averages and looking at what deaths were on Tuesdays of previous weeks:

4/28: 2,470

4/21: 2,683

4/14: 2,566 

If we are anywhere below 2,500 deaths that will be a good number.

Deaths came in at 2,350 today which is a good number.  Trailing 7 day average deaths of 1,857 now are the lowest since April 9th and now 16% below the peak on April 21st.   

For tomorrow, we would need to see a similar or slightly lower number to continue the downward trend in the trailing average. 

[N4L]

1 hour ago, vikesfan89 said:

Does wearing make effect people with asthma and other breathing problems?

Not as much as not wearing a mask could 

[TVScout]

I don't remember if this has already been posted..............

CEPI publishes analysis of COVID-19 vaccine development landscape

https://cepi.net/news_cepi/cepi-publishes-analysis-of-covid-19-vaccine-development-landscape/

[mission27]

5/5/2020 MoL Scores:

Methodology and disclaimer: MoL score is a simple metric for measuring rate of spread of the novel coronavirus within communities.  The metric was developed by mission and TLO and has not been subjected to academic peer review.  The MoL looks at a trailing average of daily new cases and compares this to trailing active cases within the community.  These rankings do not represent the opinion of anyone other than mission and TLO and should not be taken as advice of any kind.  Please note while the numbers themselves are objective calculations, smugness and Taylor Swift lyrics may factor into our commentary and decisions on tiers.  The MoL reserves the right to make changes to this methodology at any time.  Please follow all relevant governmental and/or WHO/CDC guidance.  We will defeat this virus.

"Can't remember what song he was playing when we walked in
The night we snuck into a yacht club party
Pretending to be a duchess and a prince"

- Taylor Swift

Today the MoL would like to be smug about the Mexico on Cinco de Mayo but unfortunately that'll have to wait for another time tbh because they are getting killed.  But we are smug about the USA getting back on track and even more so our favorite country, Canada. 

Tier 1: Outbreak under control, safe to begin relaxing social distancing measures

Tier 1 countries are pretty,... pretty... pretty good

How to safely open up in Tier 1? Take a look at the MoL method for proper easing, otherwise known as the MoL public health cost benefit matrix.

Hong Kong: 0.2 (a day away from another perfect score if they can keep it up)

South Korea: 0.5

China: 0.6 (another all-time low for China)

France: 0.7

Portugal: 0.9

Israel: 0.9 (crazy to see them below 1 when we thought Passover might lead to a spike, Benny did a good job I guess?)

Czech Republic: 1.0

Netherlands: 1.0

Belgium: 1.4 

Italy: 1.5 (the march downwards continues and good to see folks getting back to their lives here)

Switzerland: 1.7

Austria: 1.9

Australia: 2.0 (this is more a result of active case count falling than anything but still Shady we're gonna need you to pull yourself together my friend)

Japan: 2.1

Germany: 2.3 (all-time low for Merkel again!)

Sweden: 2.5 (wow... Sweden breaks into Tier 1 and appears to have peaked, without instituting a lockdown. deaths are higher here than many other places but you do have to give them credit for doing an excellent job, outside of the nursing home debacle. good for them. I'd say its time to ease distancing but there's nothing to really ease tbh)

Turkey: 2.6 (new all-time low for Turkey as well)

Spain: 2.8 (steady, which is not bad at all at this level)

Tier 2: New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1

Tier 2 countries aren't  doing as well as Tier 1 countries, but eh, we'll give 'em a pass, why not!  Especially since Larry doesn't want to get fatwahed again.

USA: 3.3 (ALL TIME LOW!  could we dip into tier 1? potentially, although MoL will be reluctant to move US up until probably next week or week after when we see sustained MoLs in the very low 3s or 2s, through a full weekly cycle)

UK: 3.4 (with UK, because they are not properly booking recoveries, we will need to see a much lower MoL to drop them into Tier 1, potentially 2 or below)

Philippines: 3.6 

Global: 3.8 (matches an all-time low)

Singapore: 4.5 (#seasonality for #singapore makes MoL smug af)

Ireland: 4.6 

Denmark: 6.0

Canada: 6.2 (remember this would be a point lower without the Quebec spike and I don't think its unreasonable to expect them to fall to around 5 or below within a week, potentially right on the heals of US and UK)

Iran: 7.7* (they stopped fudging their numbers and look what happens? MoL spikes. karmas a *****)

Tier 3: Countries in this group that are showing increased MoLs have the potential to go deep into the danger zones, but countries with falling MoLs may only be a couple of days from tier 2 status and may have already peaked in gross # of new cases

These countries could really do a lot better if they followed common decency standards, like washing their hands or respecting wood 

Russia: 11.0 (good call by the MoL to leave Russia in this tier, tbhwy)

India: 12.3 

Brazil: 14.8 

Tier 4: Aggressive growth, still likely have not peaked in single day cases, and likely a week or two minimum from peak in deaths (however many of these countries are still slowing down)

We feel very bad for the last Tier 4 country remaining on our list, the Mexico.  Its like that time Funkhauser became an orphan at 60 (RIP Funkhauser).

Mexico: 31.8 (we'd like to tell you they are doing just fine on their big day but frankly the growth rate here is not great, hopefully this is mostly a result of bumps in testing and will slow down, although Mexico's crowded cities, poverty, and lack of healthcare infrastructure are concerning even if seasonality has kept this spike at bay for longer)

USA State Level MoLs

Using the state by state numbers, the US actually jumps into Tier 1.  These two data sets are released a few hours apart but so there can be differences and I expect them converge over the coming days, but these numbers are generally very encouraging.  All the important states - NY, CA, NJ, FL, MA, etc. - are in Tier 1, with the exception I suppose of Illinois and Texas.  And both are slowing a bit.  Minnesota continues to be a problem child but numbers are slowing there too and in our two Tier 3 states.  And this is despite huge increases in testing over the last few weeks.  I think its fair to say a lot of these states saw flat or rising MoLs over that period due to testing and unless we see another spike in testing over the next few weeks (which would be great!) these numbers should stay solid.

MoL Deaths

US deaths continue to trend down and trend down big league, read our death thing if you are curious how to interpret deaths.

The MoL would like to thank everyone for their contributions to this important work including @ET80 @acowboys62 @dtait93 @Dome @naptownskinsfan @kingseanjohn @Malfatron @Shady Slim @malagabears @daboyle250 @vikesfan89 @ramssuperbowl99 @sdrawkcab321 @Nazgul @kingseanjohn @mistakey @TwoUpTwoDown @Xenos @Nex_Gen @FinneasGage @TVScout @seriously27 @N4L and the others who love us so much

We'd even like to thank @pwny @Glen and others for their critical attitude because of the attention it brings to the great work MoL is doing 

@TLO

The message of this gif is that the MoL is signing out until tomorrow (although we reserve the right to **** on anyone who questions our authority on these matters)

[mission27]

https://public.tableau.com/profile/peter.james.walker#!/vizhome/Coronavirus-ChangeovertimeintheUSA/00_Overlay

There were 243k tests in the US today, an all-time high.

27k or 8.6% were positive, an all-time low.

This is progress.  Not too long ago we were testing half that number and still seeing high 20s to 30+ thousand cases a day.  Clearly on the downward slope, though slow and steady.

[mission27]

The MoL did a deep dive on the state by state cases, deaths, and testing trends.  Below are some thoughts.  There are really only a few places that are getting worse, a few places that are flat or getting better slowly, and a bunch of places where things seem to be getting a lot better and flat or rising cases are pretty explainable given increases in testing. 

Places MoL is worried about: 

1. Minnesota - Has topped the MoL for a few days or weeks, percentage of tests coming back actually steadily climbing as they expand testing which is a very strong sign that the outbreak is growing there.  Unfortunate because they had this relatively under control until the last 2-3 weeks.

2. DC Metro Area - Cases are steadily rising and percentage of tests positive is steady to rising across MD, VA, and DC. 

3. Nebraska - Currently getting killed, if they were a state I cared about they'd be higher up on the list, sorry @LuckyNumber11
 

On the right track, but not out of the woods:

1. Boston - Finally seem to be on the way down, they probably peaked 3rd or 4th week of April

2. Chicago - Cases are plateauing even as testing is rapidly scaled up, my guess is they peaked around same time as Boston, still a bit higher % of tests positive than we'd like but seems like they're on the way down to me 

3. Connecticut / NJ / PA - Similar to Massachusetts but % of new cases coming back positive is still way too high, states needs to ramp up testing and maybe give it a little more time before re-opening unfortunately, at the same time a clear slowdown in cases 

4. Iowa and Indiana - Was emerging as a potential problem area but now on the right track

5. New Mexico - Get a lot of press as a potential hot spot, there's one town that could be an isolated case of that, but overall their case numbers don't look bad in comparison to huge increase in testing 

6. Wisconsin - Rams people are doing what they need to expanding testing but they are likewise finding new cases, my guess is they've really hit a bit of a plateau 

7. Arizona - Rise in cases largely driven by increase in testing which is good, but there's no real sign here of slow down and the percentage of tests that are positive is still too high.

8. North Carolina - Cases have generally risen, outside of last two days, but this has been coupled with a lot of increased testing.  I dont think they are likely to be a huge problem area but also no signs of this slowing down yet.

 

Clearly over the hump and plenty of testing: 

1. California - Rise in case driven by testing, % of tests coming back positive now below 5%

2. Florida - Same situation as California, only 2.5% of tests today came back positive, cases well below a month ago with much more testing in place 

3. Colorado - Steady drop in cases over the past two weeks even as they've expanded testing 

4. Deep South - Very few cases and vast majority of tests are coming back negative, which is a great sign.  Maybe partly seasonality. 

5. Hawaii / Alaska - Numbers are outstanding here, but makes sense given their isolation, easier to do effective lockdown. 

6. Louisiana - There was a big dip in testing once the initial New Orleans outbreak waned but they've scaled up testing and so far, so good (there was a small increase in new cases which was reflected in the MoLs, but less than 5% of tests are coming back positive) 

7. Michigan - Case numbers falling even as they rapidly scale up testing 

8. Dakotas - Big increases in testing and rise in cases has ceased and reversed 

9. Nevada - Hasnt had bad numbers to begin with, but they're showing some real signs of slow down finally when looking at new cases and testing 

10. New York - Clearest signs of almost anywhere of cases falling

11. Ohio - Starting to see cases come down amid a real ramp in testing 

12. South Carolina / Georgia - Numbers are low when you account for testing, huge ramp up in testing in Georgia with no sign of new cases 

13. Tennessee - People talking about this as a problem area and certainly it has suffered in the MoL, but its all testing.  1.6% of tests came back positive today which is great.  

14. Texas - Cases flat for last month as testing has increased by 200-300%, great sign

15. Pacific Northwest - Seattle outbreak has clearly slowed, although there are still cases

[Malfatron]

34 minutes ago, mission27 said:

6. Wisconsin - Rams people are doing what they need to expanding testing but they are likewise finding new cases, my guess is they've really hit a bit of a plateau 

Malf is also doing his part to make sure this goes well

[naptownskinsfan]

5 hours ago, vikesfan89 said:

Does wearing make effect people with asthma and other breathing problems?

Those people are covered at least in Maryland by the executive order to not wear one.  Though I don't know what stops everyone from saying "I have asthma, I'm not wearing it". One of the many reasons I'm just not a fan.  

[mission27]

30 minutes ago, Malfatron said:

Malf is also doing his part to make sure this goes well

MoL knows we can count on you, but rams is a loose cannon, lets hope he doesn't throw you all back to the dark ages.

[mission27]

Just now, naptownskinsfan said:

5 hours ago, vikesfan89 said:

Does wearing make effect people with asthma and other breathing problems?

Those people are covered at least in Maryland by the executive order to not wear one.  Though I don't know what stops everyone from saying "I have asthma, I'm not wearing it". One of the many reasons I'm just not a fan.  

Something like 10% of people have asthma seems like a pretty big loophole lol

Personally, as someone with asthma, I've never been a fan of stuff covering my face but you get used to it.  If someone had really serious asthma or a flare up I could see how it could be an issue.

[mission27]

Btw I'll point out all 3 of our problem areas are about 50 degrees at this very moment so they are still right on the edge of that danger zone temperature wise, but should be warming up into consistent 60s or 70s over the next month and a half.  Should help some.

[mission27]

CFR from Iowa Tyson plant so far ~0.4% (444 cases, 2 deaths).  Could rise a little still because its only been 2 weeks since the last positive case was confirmed but you also have no under-18s in that group which skews CFR up.  Right in the range we've seen elsewhere.