Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[kingseanjohn]

3 minutes ago, candyman93 said:

Maybe I’m wrong, but in theory, if there’s a cheap cure like the antibody I mentioned, society could return to normal correct? 

It’s unrealistic to expect everything to be shut down until a vaccine comes out.

Too early for that really. It has to be tested so we know what side effects there will be. Could be another Fen-Phen or heroin.

I wouldn't call it unrealistic to stay shut down. Society need to adapt to change. I think it's more unrealistic to expect everything to go back exactly the way it was without consequence.

[candyman93]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EXqve8aXkAYASUO?format=jpg

 

So those are the 3 possible scenarios.

Peaks and Valleys would be brutal on the economy and some really harsh choices would need to be made.

 

Fall peak is catastrophic like the Spanish flu.

 

Slow burn is best case scenario.

[mission27]

2 minutes ago, candyman93 said:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EXqve8aXkAYASUO?format=jpg

 

So those are the 3 possible scenarios.

Peaks and Valleys would be brutal on the economy and some really harsh choices would need to be made.

 

Fall peak is catastrophic like the Spanish flu.

 

Slow burn is best case scenario.

The Spanish Flu was killing young people

[candyman93]

4 minutes ago, mission27 said:

The Spanish Flu was killing young people

Let me rephrase, similar in that it’s 2nd wave was more deadly.

[rob_shadows]

46 minutes ago, kingseanjohn said:

Too early for that really. It has to be tested so we know what side effects there will be. Could be another Fen-Phen or heroin.

I wouldn't call it unrealistic to stay shut down. Society need to adapt to change. I think it's more unrealistic to expect everything to go back exactly the way it was without consequence.

It's absolutely unrealistic to stay shut down, people need to be able to get back to work and get their income back. We can't just keep giving people 900 a week on unemployment forever.

[mission27]

4 minutes ago, candyman93 said:

Let me rephrase, similar in that it’s 2nd wave was more deadly.

Yeah definitely possible

If I had to guess, I think we're headed for the 2nd wave (probably in November or December) and reported case numbers may be higher because we'll likely be testing millions a day by then, but the true scale of the outbreak and deaths wont be as bad as the first time around with advances in testing, treatment, etc. and we will be able to avoid large scale lockdowns 

At least I hope thats the case 

[mission27]

Just now, rob_shadows said:

It's absolutely unrealistic to stay shut down, people need to be able to get back to work and get their income back. We can't just keep giving people 900 a week on unemployment forever.

And beyond that, people are just not going to tolerate it.  You already see people going out more regardless of the restrictions.  

The focus should be on ramping testing, PPE, masks, etc. as much as possible because people aren't going to stay home forever.

[candyman93]

7 minutes ago, rob_shadows said:

It's absolutely unrealistic to stay shut down, people need to be able to get back to work and get their income back. We can't just keep giving people 900 a week on unemployment forever.

I’ll be really curious to see what happens come September. I feel the government will open things up during the summer. Then shut things down again if and when things pick up again.

 

Things I don’t see opening again anytime soon due to possible legal ramifications:

Schools

Entertainment venues

Places of worship

Cruise lines - This is tricky because it’s not just a USA decision. Other countries may tell us to F off and not go near them.

[mission27]

Just now, candyman93 said:

I’ll be really curious to see what happens come September. I feel the government will open things up during the summer. Then shut things down again if and when things pick up again.

 

Things I don’t see opening again anytime soon due to possible legal ramifications:

Schools

Entertainment venues

Places of worship

Cruise lines - This is tricky because it’s not just a USA decision. Other countries may tell us to F off and not go near them.

The one silver lining is its probably not September, its probably later.  New York City, Chicago, etc. temps don't get consistently into the danger zone of 35-50 F until late October or November and then it will take a number of weeks to see the explosive growth we saw in March.  So 4-5 months between the end of this lockdown and the start of a potential lockdown 2.0. 

My strong hope is there is no second lockdown due to either better public health response, better therapeutics, or a vaccine (outside shot) but not holding my breath. 

[candyman93]

10 minutes ago, mission27 said:

And beyond that, people are just not going to tolerate it.  You already see people going out more regardless of the restrictions. 

Your statement reminds me of something I’ve stated in real life. We as Americans have been incredibly spoiled. Our generation has never been tested up to this point. The last time Americans genuinely felt a sense of fear for their life was probably the Cold War Era.

 

The virus has shown me how good I’ve had it and how good we’ve all had it. We don’t have to be afraid of another country invading us. There’s no neighbors that act hostile towards us.

[kingseanjohn]

18 minutes ago, rob_shadows said:

It's absolutely unrealistic to stay shut down, people need to be able to get back to work and get their income back. We can't just keep giving people 900 a week on unemployment forever.

As is, I agree. Government/budgets would need to adapt. It's possible but as long as budgets and rules are the way they are, it can't last. I'll just say that I have experienced not being able to buy a $60 part off Amazon because of a government contract. Instead we have to pay $200+ per part through contracting. But government budgets and rules isn't something I want to get into here.

[kingseanjohn]

24 minutes ago, mission27 said:

And beyond that, people are just not going to tolerate it.  You already see people going out more regardless of the restrictions.  

The focus should be on ramping testing, PPE, masks, etc. as much as possible because people aren't going to stay home forever.

I fully agree. But the testing and PPE isn't happening quickly enough. Until it does, the shut down should continue imo.

[mission27]

4 minutes ago, kingseanjohn said:

I fully agree. But the testing and PPE isn't happening quickly enough. Until it does, the shut down should continue imo.

I agree, but its sort of happening as quickly as you can expect thb.  We'd all love to see the quantum leap in testing Dr Birks has talked about and that may well happen, but its not something you can snap your fingers and expect.  In the absence of that, what is happening... a steady, linear growth in availability of tests all across the country... is about as much as you can ask for.

We're testing about 300k a day now, a month ago that number was 100k a day, in a month it could be a million a day (except there will probably be so few positive cases that there just wont be that much demand, unless we start testing everyone at airports, nursing homes, and large facilities, which would be great).

[Xenos]

On a personal note, my wife's company was finally able to get a loan from the PPP after the second try. Same thing with some of our friends from church. So super grateful that this happened

Edited May 11, 2020 by Xenos

[TLO]

5/10/2020 MoL Scores:

Methodology and disclaimer: MoL score is a simple metric for measuring rate of spread of the novel coronavirus within communities.  The metric was developed by mission and TLO and has not been subjected to academic peer review.  The MoL looks at a trailing average of daily new cases and compares this to trailing active cases within the community.  These rankings do not represent the opinion of anyone other than mission and TLO and should not be taken as advice of any kind.  Please note while the numbers themselves are objective calculations, smugness and Taylor Swift lyrics may factor into our commentary and decisions on tiers.  The MoL reserves the right to make changes to this methodology at any time.  Please follow all relevant governmental and/or WHO/CDC guidance.  We will defeat this virus.

"Nice to meet you, where you been?
I could show you incredible things
Magic, madness, heaven, sin"

- Taylor Swift

It’s good to be back here with you folks on this Mother’s Day, and I am happy to report good news. Unfortunately TLO is on his phone and commentary may be limited today.

Tier 1: Outbreak under control, safe to begin relaxing social distancing measures

Tier 1 countries are pretty,... pretty... pretty good

How to safely open up in Tier 1? Take a look at the MoL method for proper easing, otherwise known as the MoL public health cost benefit matrix.

Israel: 0.6 - A new country overtakes they top spot! We’ll see if they alternate back and forth for the top spot, but all of these countries at the top are looking good, so I wouldn’t be too worried about who’s number 1. 

China: 0.6 

Hong Kong: 0.6

Netherlands: 0.8

South Korea: 0.9 

Italy: 1.2

Czech Republic: 1.2

France: 1.3

Japan: 1.5

Portugal: 1.5

Belgium: 1.5

Switzerland: 1.6

Austria: 2.2

Australia: 2.2 - USA coming for you @Shady Slim

USA: 2.8 - USA! USA! USA! We have broken into tier 1. While the mission of the initial stay at home order may be accomplished, there is work to do to not give away our advancements. We’ve certainly seen that before....

Turkey: 3.0

Sweden: 3.1

Germany: 3.1

Spain: 3.4 

Tier 2: New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1

Tier 2 countries aren't  doing as well as Tier 1 countries, but eh, we'll give 'em a pass, why not!  Especially since Larry doesn't want to get fatwahed again.

Philippines: 3.0

UK: 3.1

Ireland: 3.1 - @FinneasGage closing in on tier 1 tbh

Global: 3.7

Canada: 4.3 - mission is particularly eager to get back to see his cast of characters in Montreal. They are making strides, but I think they still may be a couple weeks away from busting through to tier 1. Until then, Ernesto, Lou K, Gallagher, etc can wait.

Singapore: 4.4

Denmark: 6.3

Tier 3: Countries in this group that are showing increased MoLs have the potential to go deep into the danger zones, but countries with falling MoLs may only be a couple of days from tier 2 status and may have already peaked in gross # of new cases

These countries could really do a lot better if they followed common decency standards, like washing their hands or respecting wood 

Russia: 9.2 - they’ve gotten their numbers down, but we think they’re still a little ways off from tier 2.

Iran: 11.4*

India: 12.0

Brazil: 17.2

Tier 4: Aggressive growth, still likely have not peaked in single day cases, and likely a week or two minimum from peak in deaths (however many of these countries are still slowing down)

We feel very bad for the last Tier 4 country remaining on our list, the Mexico.  Its like that time Funkhauser became an orphan at 60 (RIP Funkhauser).

Mexico: 24.7 - the mexico continues to post bad numbers. Interested to see how cinco de mayo potentially impacts the number over the coming weeks.

USA State Level MoLs

CA should be into tier 1 for the annual Ronnie G memorial summit at nobu.

Canada Province Level MoLs

Tbh I only care about Quebec getting into tier 1. The rest of these Mounties can just enjoy their maple syrup in peace for the time being.

MoL Deaths

They looked at the death count early in the pandemic and it was very good before, but now it’s not, so this is why it can be misleading to track.
 

nevertheless, we expect the MoL forecast to be incredibly accurate.

 

There have been 750 deaths since the MoL posted their MoL death forecast compared to 970 deaths projected over this time frame. 

The MoL would like to thank everyone for their contributions to this important work including @ET80 @acowboys62 @dtait93 @Dome @naptownskinsfan @kingseanjohn @Malfatron @Shady Slim @malagabears @daboyle250 @vikesfan89 @ramssuperbowl99 @sdrawkcab321 @Nazgul @kingseanjohn @mistakey @TwoUpTwoDown @Xenos @Nex_Gen @FinneasGage @TVScout @seriously27 @N4L and the others who love us so much

We'd even like to thank @pwny @Glen and others for their critical attitude because of the attention it brings to the great work MoL is doing 

@mission27

The message of this gif is that the MoL is signing out until tomorrow (although we reserve the right to **** on anyone who questions our authority on these matters)