BigTrav Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 There hasn't been a loss for Patrick where the opposition hasn't scored at least 30. To beat us you need to put up 40 points roughly. Can Tampa do that? Possibly. Our D is underrated though (I mean some of you really do have eggs on your faces this post season...our defense is pretty good when it needs to be) and Brady will throw picks now. KC - 34 TB - 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jotun_Fan Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 I don't watch a whole lot of football lately, but Shaq Barrett abused the Giants last year, he really impressed me. Not sure if he would have matched up against Fisher but if he's going against a backup...good luck KC. Watching the NO game last week, really impressed with young playmakers on that Bucs D. Really think this is a good matchup, should be fun. Maybe could be a rout (either way) but I think it will be entertaining and close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KManX89 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 12 hours ago, Broncofan said: Truthfully, you couldn't really go wrong with any of the 4 teams who played today. But outside of some real weirdness of TAM not being able to drive in the 1Q, and their absolute wretched bad team matchups vs. NO (which they overcame with a +4 TO differential 7 days ago), they were the most complete team in the NFC. KC is the best team in the AFC, and they earned their 1 seed. They earned being the 3 pt favorite here, too, even though the game is actually being played at TAM. -The news that Eric Fisher is out, though - is massive. And while BUF didn't make Mahomes pay - the BUF lack of pass rush, and their set up for run D problems, and giving up the short stuff, KC mercilessly exploited. TAM's D sets up a lot better than BUF's did. This is compounded by Mahomes having turf toe. BUF did not take advantage, but it's pretty clear Mahomes was limited. And turf toe isn't going away with 2 weeks of rest. Frankly, a fully manned KC OL and Mahomes beats TAM pretty soundly IMO - but that's not the situation. And the KC run game that had success against BUF, has a much different animal to face in TAM's run D. Those injuries combined with Mahomes' limited mobility, man this is an issue. -Injury-wise, TAM will get 2 guys back who will be huge - AB (wasn't as much to miss him vs. GB, since GB can't cover well with their 2nd / 3rd CB's, and Alexander doesn't travel) & S Antoine Winfield Jr. The Bucs did OK with Winfield's backup playing, but when they lost their SS Whitehead, GB's comeback was based on just abusing #26 (I don't even know who he is lol). Getting Winfield Jr. back, even if it's with Mike Edwards as FS and Winfield moving to SS - is a big key to restoring their already-successful pass D. And the last part - Vita Vea showed rust in the 1H, getting pushed around for the GB TD drive in the 2Q - but then came out with key pressure moments that helped the EDGES get to A-Rod. Vea now gets 2 weeks to get in full game condition - and I can't stress how huge that is. Inside pressure on pass downs, and an absolute anchor to solidify TAM's already stout run D. -Now, when TAM O's is on the field, KC's secondary is going to pose a lot more problems for TAM than GB's secondary did - but unlike BUF, TAM can roll 3-4 WR, or 3-WR and 2-TE to take the underneath stuff. Allen really struggled with those choices - Brady shouldn't. And the bigger difference - TAM has the run game that can balance the D a lot more than what BUF did (why they didn't run Allen more is a mystery, though). So in the end, I think the 3-pt spread is very well calculated - but with the game at TAM, and suddenly Fisher out (joining Osemele, Schwartz, and Duvernay-Tardif sitting out) - we've got a Giants - Pats type setup here - except Tam's O is more potent than NYG's. Or the CAR-DEN game (where CAR was favored by 5.5 pts at gametime) - and while Mahomes is meta-levels above Cam 2015 (duh), it's less-mobile Mahomes, and a TAM O that is also meta-levels above DEN's O with the corpse of Peyton Manning 2015. A KC W won't surprise me at all, but I think we're in for a classic. If Mahomes didn't have turf toe and limited mobility, and KC's OL wasn't decimated, I'd see a KC 7-pt win. As it is, this might be one for the ages - maybe our 2nd OT game, maybe a last-drive winning / D stand type situation. I said it before with TAM-GB, but it applies 10x here.... KC also has deep threats to abuse TB's 21st-ranked pass defense and not heavily-reliant on the underneath stuff like GB's offense, who, need I remind you, got abused by Washington's 3rd string QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, KManX89 said: KC also has deep threats to abuse TB's 21st-ranked pass defense and not heavily-reliant on the underneath stuff like GB's offense, who, need I remind you, got abused by Washington's 3rd string QB. If KC's going to win, it's going to be with the deep shots, for sure. That's why Fisher & Schwartz going out, and KC already working with G's replacing Osemele / Duvernay-Tardif (for all season in the latter, Week 6 former) matters. And Mahomes' turf toe. TAM's ability to get to the QB early is their best hope of negating the deep ball. KC won't beat TAM with the short game, nor the run game. Like I said before - if the OL was intact, and Mahomes was healthy, I'd easily see a 7-10 pt KC W. But that matchup above, combined with TAM's run game / ability to have 4 WR's (or 3 WR and either Gronk/Brate), combined with Brady's willingness to take what KC gives him, makes this a pick 'em. I truly think it's a 3-pt game. I don't get the thinking that this is a KC blowout. TAM gets Vea 2 more weeks to get his motor up to full speed (and his lack of motor affected him badly in 1H, he really surged in 2H), AB back to work short areas, and most importantly, Winfield Jr. (+/- Whitehead, but Edwards is OK to back up either position, WInfield might even move to SS - they just can't have #26 Adams play any meaningful snaps). BUF's pass D played bend but don't break...but didn't get sustained pressure. TAM's DL and LB blitzes do a better job of getting to the QB, way better than both BUF / CLE (all metrics confirm this). Against KC's regular OL, I'm not as optimistic they could maintain it. Against this OL? Different story. If KC wins this, it won't surprise me. They deserve to be the favorites. But there's a reason they're only 3-pt favorites, and it's always about matchups. I went on full record in the NO-TAM game in that TAM-NO thread saying that TAM could not win vs. NO without winning the TO matchup, getting to Brees, and finding TB12 time - because NO was THAT bad of a matchup. +4 TO's and the latter 2 events later, TAM wins. I was one of the few voices confident enough to call a straight TAM victory in the TAM-GB thread, because the matchups were so much better. Again - a healthy OL / healthy & fully mobile Mahomes, I don't like the matchups nearly as much as I do now (but it also must have Winfield Jr. back, KC would just keep exposing #26 Adams again over & over like GB did in the last 20 mins of yesterday's game). In a matchup between healthy units - KC wins by 7-10. But that's not the case - especially since turf toe is clearly affecting Mahomes' mobility, and unlike ankle sprains (Winfield Jr.), or conditioning from fractures (Vea), or a cranky MCL (AB), turf toe's not going to go away dramatically with only 2 weeks of rest. Now, that alone wouldn't be enough. But you add AB/Winfield Jr.'s return, Vea's increase in time, and now Fischer's injury (paired with Schwartz), that's a different animal. I'm happy to call a 3 pt game, so I'm sticking with the dogs in that scenario. Should be an absolute banger. Edited January 25, 2021 by Broncofan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nads786 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 hours ago, BigTrav said: Our OL might be suspect, but did you not see Allen slipping and sliding around for his life? At times he had less than 2 seconds to throw. Brady can't escape and rat out of it like Allen can, so if our pass rush is on point again - it will probably be a hard day for TB considering they like their longer developing routes. Could be closer than CGs, defense will matter more this time. Chris Jones abused the Bill interior, I think that will be a big key to the Super Bowl. Brady cannot stand that kind of pressure with his immobility. This could be a low scoring defensive match up, which nobody will expect. 23-20 toss up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nads786 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 hours ago, lancerman said: To me this is the key to the game. That Bucs front absolutely abused arguably the best line in football twice and the Chiefs if they have a weakness is their banged up offensive line. You can't stop the receivers of KC, but you can make every throw to them rushed and uncomfortable and beat up on Mahomes. Packers were without their all pro LT FYI. It wasn't like they dominated the GB line that was fully healthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bucsfan333 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, Nads786 said: Packers were without their all pro LT FYI. It wasn't like they dominated the GB line that was fully healthy. Having Vita Vea back was the biggest difference. Dude pushed the pocket back into Rodgers' face more than any QB is comfortable with. And now he has two weeks to get in better shape. He's gonna have to have a big game if the defense is gonna try to slow down the buzz saw that is the Chief's offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chiefer Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 15 minutes ago, bucsfan333 said: Having Vita Vea back was the biggest difference. Dude pushed the pocket back into Rodgers' face more than any QB is comfortable with. And now he has two weeks to get in better shape. He's gonna have to have a big game if the defense is gonna try to slow down the buzz saw that is the Chief's offense. Glad to see him back, dude looks like a menace out there! This is gonna be the biggest test for the Chiefs OL yet and the only starter left is the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bucsfan333 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 5 minutes ago, Chiefer said: Glad to see him back, dude looks like a menace out there! This is gonna be the biggest test for the Chiefs OL yet and the only starter left is the center. I am not confident. Andy Reid with two weeks to come up with some crazy bull**** nobody's ever seen the Chiefs do is scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mw2noobbuster Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 What is this TAM people get referring to? Am I missing something obvious here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indifference Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Antonio Brown will be a huge distraction for the Buccaneers so Chiefs will win by 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nabbs4u Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 hour ago, bucsfan333 said: I am not confident. Andy Reid with two weeks to come up with some crazy bull**** nobody's ever seen the Chiefs do is scary. Andy's record coming off a bye use to be Rediculous with the Eagles. Fairly certain it hasn't gotten worse with KC. Then again so is Tom's I'd imagine? 🤷♂️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChazStandard Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 4 hours ago, BigTrav said: Our OL might be suspect, but did you not see Allen slipping and sliding around for his life? At times he had less than 2 seconds to throw. Brady can't escape and rat out of it like Allen can, so if our pass rush is on point again - it will probably be a hard day for TB considering they like their longer developing routes. Could be closer than CGs, defense will matter more this time. The Chiefs pass rush was pretty good, but Allen made it worse with some truly awful pocket presence. At times he simply didn't see the free rusher at all, and rarely felt the rush. He always went back, instead of stepping up and letting he rush past him. He was bad. Whatever else happens on SB night, and expect the Chiefs to win, Brady will not be taking 18 yard sacks or getting blindsided by free rushers he didn't see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sad People Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Very excited for this game. This could go down as a classic for all we know. A game a fan never forgets As a football fan how could you not be excited for a matchup like this? TB12 the goat vs Patty Cakes a 25 year old MVP who’s been to 3 AFCCGs, 2 SBs and a SB MVP in his young career I went with the Bucs in this one. People keep on saying that there’s no way the Bucs D can contain KCs WRs but how in the heck can KC contain Mike Evans, Godwin, AB and Tyler Johnson? Also didn’t mention Cameron Brate and Gronk. Just something I noticed in the thread so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mizter_Clean10 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Everyone is acting like Mahomes is playing on a dang peg leg. Sure his toe is injured but he avoided pressure last night and moved around the pocket just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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