Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Malfatron]

39 minutes ago, TVScout said:

The gist of that article is Thinkihadititis:

Thinkihadtytyis

[MacReady]

@ramssuperbowl99, it's not about preventing the disease, it's about the cost of preventing it versus preventing it.

Quote

I, for one, am looking forward to this magic universe some people exist in where laws and restrictions aren't needed, and people will simply cooperate when provided the information needed to justify the cooperation.

Meanwhile, on planet Earth, we're stuck here babysitting and regulating and restricting, not because we want to, but because we have to. But that magic universe sure sounds nice.

You can insult and mock and deride all you want, but I'm not the one ignoring the effects of all these measures. 

I'm the one accepting that opening everything back up will kill people.  It will not save a single life.  Not one.  Yes, this is semantics.  All of these measures WILL PROLONG THE LIVES OF AT-RISK INDIVIDUALS.

At the same time, all of these measures WILL LESSEN THE LIVES OF LOW-RISK INDIVIDUALS.

Save an average of 5 years of life for the elderly and at-risk at the expense of lessening the lives of low-risk individuals makes no sense to me. 

You might be fine.  I'm fine.  I'm financially secure.  You're financially secure.

Now imagine the entire country and the entire world and the effects of going 6 months, 12 months, 18 months without a job, without school, without interaction and multiply the effects of that poverty and mental health and ask yourself if it's worth extending 70,000 lives now at the expense of lessening millions of lives in the future. 

 

[MacReady]

I don't want to argue this anymore.  I want to get back to arguing about which movies are crap and why you don't take receivers, interior offensive linemen, inside linebackers or tight ends in the top 24 of the draft.  With those I know for a fact I'm right, but lives aren't on the line if I'm wrong.  With this, I know for a fact I'm right, but lives will be lost either way.  This crap is old.  Let's go back to manspreading and micro aggressions being the biggest issues we have to think about. 

[ramssuperbowl99]

3 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

You can insult and mock and deride all you want, but I'm not the one ignoring the effects of all these measures.

You are choosing to operate in a world where if society says "let's all take responsibility for ourselves", everyone will. There's no kind way to say it, but that world doesn't exist and has never existed. You're welcome to keep lashing out at the people in the world for not taking responsibility, but all that's going to do is make you mad and give people opportunities to post the picture of Grandpa Simpson yelling at a cloud.

In the meantime, elected officials have to make decisions based on how people are.

[mistakey]

2 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

I, for one, am looking forward to this magic universe some people exist in where laws and restrictions aren't needed, and people will simply cooperate when provided the information needed to justify the cooperation.

Meanwhile, on planet Earth, we're stuck here babysitting and regulating and restricting, not because we want to, but because we have to. But that magic universe sure sounds nice.

i knew u were an anarchist

[ramssuperbowl99]

1 minute ago, mistakey said:

i knew u were an anarchist

It was my Guy Fawkes mask that gave it away wasn't it?

[mistakey]

Just now, ramssuperbowl99 said:

It was my Guy Fawkes mask that gave it away wasn't it?

charlie kelly avy

[mission27]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/17/us/coronavirus-testing-states.html

Article from April 17th, remember we needed close to half a million tests per day to safely re-open?  At the time (less than a month ago) we were generally between 130-150k tests per day. 

Today we tested 350k people.  We've average over 250k test pers day the last two weeks. 

Still not there yet, but getting a hell of a lot closer to having the testing capacity we need.

[Xenos]

Someone mentioned testing? I guess the parameters keep changing. Not that I don't think increased testing isn't a good thing (so many double negatives in this sentence).

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/07/851610771/u-s-coronavirus-testing-still-falls-short-hows-your-state-doing

Quote

One prominent research group, Harvard's Global Health Institute, proposes that the U.S. should be doing more than 900,000 tests per day as a country. This projection, released Thursday, is a big jump from its earlier projection of testing need, which had been between 500,000 and 600,000 daily.

 

Quote

Two ways to assess whether testing is adequate

To make their state-by-state estimates, the Harvard Global Health Institute group started from a model of future case counts. It calculated how much testing would be needed for a state to test all infected people and any close contacts they may have exposed to the virus. (The simulation estimates testing 10 contacts on average.)

"Testing is outbreak control 101, because what testing lets you do is figure out who's infected and who's not," Jha says. "And that lets you separate out the infected people from the noninfected people and bring the disease under control."

This approach is how communities can prevent outbreaks from flaring up. First, test all symptomatic people, then reach out to their close contacts and test them, and finally ask those who are infected or exposed to isolate themselves.

 

Quote

The targets are floors, not goals

States that have reached the estimated target should think of that as a starting point.

"We've always built these as the floor, the bare minimum," Jha says. More testing would be even better, allowing states to more rapidly tamp down case surges.

In fact, other experts have proposed that the U.S. do even more testing. Paul Romer, a professor of economics at New York University, proposed in a recent white paper that if the U.S. tested every resident, every two weeks, isolating those who test positive, it could stop the pandemic in its tracks.

Jha warns that without sufficient testing, and the infrastructure in place to trace and isolate contacts, there's a real risk that states — even those with few cases now — will see new large outbreaks. "I think what people have to remember is that the virus isn't gone. The disease isn't gone. And it's going to be with us for a while," he says.

 

[diehardlionfan]

6 hours ago, acowboys62 said:

Yes, and that part has been accomplished across the board right?  So we should be loosening restrictions across the board right?  Not necessarily happening for many, many officials have no changed the goal. 

I do not agree with what they did, but they exercised a right not an entitlement, ether you agree with that right or not is obviously not for discussion here. 

It is a concern because at what point does that factor in?  We keep everything shut down and shut in and all of a sudden you have more death as a result of the "cure"...just like we were all shut down based on models/judgement calls, the same can be true for poverty and starvation.  Those are some of the reasons sure, but there are other reasons that are self imposed. 

I doubt it, also you can do both.  I moved into a bigger houses 2 years ago because I wanted to, I buy things I probably do not need because I want to and can...I also am getting ready to make a run to my local lunch break to drop off a bunch of food and supplies and will continue to do a monthly shop for them along with donating to animal causes.  You make it seem like people with $$ are the issue...who do you think makes those locations even possible?  Hint, it is not the people living pay check to pay check.  I do agree that not ALL people or are well off help, but don't act like none do. 

Right vs entitlement, equality vs equity.  It is not selfish for people to want to go out and work and make money, it just isn't.  I don't care if they make $10 /hour or $250,000 a year...there is zero selfish about working.  Going out to the bar to get hammered..yes that is selfish in the current environment. 

And what about those who were not in a position to have those things and have been forced out of work?  What about those who took a risk and sank their life savings into a business but now are told they can't work...what do you say to them about accountability? 

And that includes you, cause this post was riddled with mostly complaining. 

Ok, well this is where we live so that is what we base our opinions, wants, needs on...why would I live my life a certain way because some part of the world is not able?  That makes no sense. 

Yea it is people using it as an excuse to keep things locked down and closed. 

Please list number opportunities when you get a chance. 

Yes you can, but you can have multiple things be true in all scenarios, at all times.  

Sorry, but you and I completely disagree. There is always opportunity. Those that want to work can certainly do so. Perhaps not at their original jobs but meat plants, couriers, Amazon, insta cart,  many restaurants, flower shops etc. all have issue getting staff right now.Landscapers, shipping departments all looking for employees. Anyone can get into affiliate selling. Anyone can drop flyers off offering yard cleanup, general maintenance (outdoors) etc.  If I had any interest in working I could have numerous jobs tomorrow. Far to many people simply ***** and moan. Others get off their butt and do something. 

A local florist got off his butt and has opened a drive through flower shop. You drive through flower displays, phone the store to place an order then get a time for contactless pick up or delivery.

My nephew from day one has kept all his staff employed, and paid, by offering curb side pickup and he has built a website and offers global shipping. His store revenues haven’t fallen. His number one seller is puzzles. He can’t keep them in stock and won’t ship them as he reserves them for locals. 

A local rancher I know has changed his business. He can’t sell all his cattle due to meat packing restrictions. So, they built a pad, constructed a small building and he now offers custom cutting and meat delivery. 

My point wasn’t about not opening certain sectors it was a response to complaints about old people and individuals perception of their suffering due to grandma. The post I was responding to was talking about old people taking responsibility and that’s true but it’s no less true for those that have lived carelessly and over extended themselves. I find it laughable people want those least able to take care of themselves to be accountable without extending that same responsibility to everyone. I also take great offence at people who blame others especially an identifiable group as the reason for their problems.

To someone who just opened a business I ask two questions.

1.:Why did you choose to open a business without adequate capitalization? We’ve only been at this for two months and any business that can’t survive two months was under capitalized.

2. Why didn’t you buy loss of business insurance?

I know someone will comeback with a comment about act of god which is a way insurance companies try to weasel out of obligations but thats standard practice for insurance companies. We have courts for those companies. Many insurance companies are already paying interim claims.

You live in a country with the most egregious tax structure that I’ve ever seen. It’s bogus and it’s very design is to reward wealth. Last month Americans saved 2.4 trillion dollars. I bet that number is fairly concentrated within a segment of society which is in keeping in a country with huge disparity of wealth and income. I would love to go further, but can’t.

Its great you bought a bigger house. That’s your choice as it is everyone’s but people that get underwater by using inadequate down payments, have insufficient emergency funds aren’t going to get sympathy from me. We are two months into this and anyone that doesn’t know that a minimum three months emergency fund is required lives under a rock. 

Its also important to realize you live in a country where large groups have either no, or inadequate health insurance. Perhaps one of the discussions that should be entertained (not here);is providing health insurance to everyone so that once again the poor and disadvantaged don’t shoulder the majority of risk and negative outcomes.

Its not selfish to want to work? I would agree except when someone’s desire to work puts others in harms way. That extends well beyond work and exists in all aspects when you live in a society.

Being thankful for what you have is philosophical and those that think they’re hard done by now probably won’t like what’s coming over the next three or so years. Luck is where preparation meets opportunity and unfortunately there’s many people that have never prepared for economic upheaval. 

Personally I don’t care what they do as far as reopening. I have no control over that just like I have no control over much of anything except my own actions. I know through experience, planning etc. that my wife, children and grandchildren will come through this. It’s simply an obstacle that will be overcome with time. We prepared for this possibility and no one should be surprised by a pandemic. I do hope, for the sake of those that are poor society steps up with a level of commitment that isn’t just putting people in harms way. Meat packing plants are a perfect example. You need meat but there are people out there paying a heavy price due to irresponsible corporations and governments. 

There could already be a number of additional activities and businesses opened but for whatever reason preparation for this was sadly lacking. Two months in and testing is still inadequate without any signs of significant improvement. So, the result is many decisions will be based on nothing but assumptions and prayers. Neither of which accomplish anything.

So how about they get testing in order.

Provide some protection for those we expect to be in harms way.

Provide a safety net for those that are disadvantaged due to poverty, health etc.

As it stands the working poor, without insurance, are paying a terrible price like they always do during tough times.

Unfortunately I expect self interest and greed to win out and not much will change.

 

 

 

 

 

[TVScout]

Free:

Blood thinners show promise for boosting the survival chances of the sickest covid patients

New York hospital system’s observational study looked at 2,733 patients in and out of the intensive care unit.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/05/07/blood-thinners-coronavirus-clots/?utm_campaign=wp_for_you&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_personalizedforyou

[TVScout]

More free stuff:

Live Updates

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/07/coronavirus-update-us/?utm_campaign=wp_for_you&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_personalizedforyou

[seriously27]

7 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

They'd have serial blood samples to test for neutralizing antibodies in the phase I group, that would give them some efficacy insight.
For Moderna, they are dosing with mRNA which causes our own cells to produce the viral proteins, which in turn elicit an antibody response to those viral proteins.  This is an area where @seriously27 can shed some light on how they measure efficacy in a non- challenge vaccine trial.

Key challenges:
Using mRNA to create medicines is a complex undertaking and requires overcoming novel scientific and technical challenges. We need to get the mRNA into the targeted tissue and cells while evading the immune system. If the immune system is triggered, the resultant response may limit protein production and, thus, limit the therapeutic benefit of mRNA medicines. We also need ribosomes to think the mRNA was produced naturally, so they can accurately read the instructions to produce the right protein. And we need to ensure the cells express enough of the protein to have the desired therapeutic effect. 

It's crazy to think people are considering using challenge trials since is hasn't been done since the 1700s. But here we are!

Controlled human challenge trials of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates could accelerate the testing and potential rollout of efficacious vaccines. By replacing conventional phase 3 testing of vaccine candidates, such trials may subtract many months from the licensure process, making efficacious vaccines available more quickly. 

Measuring the efficacy of a drug or vaccine normally requires years and thousands of patients. For the vaccine, patients are given a drug and then the doctors wait to see if they get sick. That can take months and years of time because no one wants to be given the virus on purpose. 

Efficacy is a measurement of the maximum desired response of a drug. With a vaccine the measurements are actually easier than normal drugs because your desired response is for the virus to be killed upon entering your body or blood stream. So you measure this in percentages of people in your trial who become sick. Very simple in that regard. What is difficult is when you talk about effectiveness. This is all the other factors that occur to the patients in your trial while taking the drug. This is normally tested over years as well and is the reason why some drugs that show high efficacy are not used because the negatives outweigh the positives.

With a challenge trial....you won't have much data on the effectiveness of the vaccine. Of course vaccines don't normally have a lot of side effects like other drugs Soo...( Don't @ me antivaxers.) 

[seriously27]

6 hours ago, ET80 said:

I've been summoned.

I've been summoned again.

Say it one more time and you are coming through their computer like Candyman 

[mission27]

5/7/2020 MoL Scores:

Methodology and disclaimer: MoL score is a simple metric for measuring rate of spread of the novel coronavirus within communities.  The metric was developed by mission and TLO and has not been subjected to academic peer review.  The MoL looks at a trailing average of daily new cases and compares this to trailing active cases within the community.  These rankings do not represent the opinion of anyone other than mission and TLO and should not be taken as advice of any kind.  Please note while the numbers themselves are objective calculations, smugness and Taylor Swift lyrics may factor into our commentary and decisions on tiers.  The MoL reserves the right to make changes to this methodology at any time.  Please follow all relevant governmental and/or WHO/CDC guidance.  We will defeat this virus.

"The first date man I didn't kiss her when I should have,
And when I got home, before I said amen,
Asking God if He could play it again."

- Taylor Swift

Today US deaths take a bit of a dive but the MoL is mostly smug about our smugness and the hater and losers.

Tier 1: Outbreak under control, safe to begin relaxing social distancing measures

Tier 1 countries are pretty,... pretty... pretty good

How to safely open up in Tier 1? Take a look at the MoL method for proper easing, otherwise known as the MoL public health cost benefit matrix.

 

China: 0.4 (China in a tie for first!  WOW)

South Korea: 0.4

Hong Kong: 0.5 (Hong Kong appears to be holding cases for 5 days to keep hitting those perfect 0 MoL scores)

Israel: 0.6 

Netherlands: 0.9

Belgium: 1.3

Italy: 1.3

Portugal: 1.4

France: 1.4

Czech Republic: 1.4

Switzerland: 1.6

Japan: 2.0

Austria: 2.2

Australia: 2.6 (oh boy, RIP shady)

Sweden: 2.8

Turkey: 3.0

Spain: 3.0

Germany: 3.1

Tier 2: New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1

Tier 2 countries aren't  doing as well as Tier 1 countries, but eh, we'll give 'em a pass, why not!  Especially since Larry doesn't want to get fatwahed again.

USA: 3.1 (staying put here, state numbers moved up a bit and converging, early next week could be the time US hits tier 1!)

UK: 3.2 (all-time low, too bad Canada isn't quite there yet although gaining) 

Ireland: 3.7

Global: 3.8 (back at an all-time low, as some of the big boys get better)

Philippines: 3.9

Singapore: 4.2 (#seasonality for #singapore makes MoL smug af)

Canada: 5.6 (heading on down, down 0.5 from yesterday, and would be closer to 4.5 without the Quebec mess up, which it could be tomorrow! Montreal is the one issue here but mostly an issue in senior living facilities, lets hope we see some improvement)

Denmark: 6.6

Tier 3: Countries in this group that are showing increased MoLs have the potential to go deep into the danger zones, but countries with falling MoLs may only be a couple of days from tier 2 status and may have already peaked in gross # of new cases

These countries could really do a lot better if they followed common decency standards, like washing their hands or respecting wood 

Russia: 9.9 (MoL wont repeat the mistake we never made of moving them up yet)

Iran: 10.4* (karmas a *****)

India: 12,1

Brazil: 16.0

Tier 4: Aggressive growth, still likely have not peaked in single day cases, and likely a week or two minimum from peak in deaths (however many of these countries are still slowing down)

We feel very bad for the last Tier 4 country remaining on our list, the Mexico.  Its like that time Funkhauser became an orphan at 60 (RIP Funkhauser).

Mexico: 21.6 (well, the MoL called the top coming on Cinco De M, lets hope the seasonality saves them and everything is fine in a few weeks, lets go AMLO!)

USA State Level MoLs

The numbers are converging, Minnesota is the one rough spot, these numbers need to be put in context that we just did 350k tests today, an all-time high, up from 100-150k a few weeks ago, outstanding. 

MoL Deaths

US deaths tick down again, now 15.5% below the all-time high trailing average.  If you exclude the 700 delayed reporting NY nursing home deaths that got lumped in yesterday, we'd be close to 80% below the all-time high trailing average.  Deaths are dropping and now dropping even outside the NYC.  And remember, this is a 2 week lagging indicator.  

The MoL would like to thank everyone for their contributions to this important work including @ET80 @acowboys62 @dtait93 @Dome @naptownskinsfan @kingseanjohn @Malfatron @Shady Slim @malagabears @daboyle250 @vikesfan89 @ramssuperbowl99 @sdrawkcab321 @Nazgul @kingseanjohn @mistakey @TwoUpTwoDown @Xenos @Nex_Gen @FinneasGage @TVScout @seriously27 @N4L and the others who love us so much

We'd even like to thank @pwny @Glen and others for their critical attitude because of the attention it brings to the great work MoL is doing 

@TLO

The message of this gif is that the MoL is signing out until tomorrow (although we reserve the right to **** on anyone who questions our authority on these matters)

Edited May 8, 2020 by mission27