Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Xenos]

Making sense of all the different models and hopefully provide a more accurate picture by combining them all together aka Voltron. Just missing The MOL

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/13/855038708/combining-different-models-new-coronavirus-projection-shows-110-000-deaths-by-ju

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The team unveiled the first version four weeks ago and ever since has been adding in more forecasts and updating the projections weekly. The latest update — released Tuesday — incorporates eight models, including some oft-cited ones, such as those built by the Imperial College London, the University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Columbia University and Northeastern University. (The team also sends each week's release to the CDC, which publishes a version with a slight time lag.)

 

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"The most pessimistic model a few weeks ago was the model from Los Alamos National Laboratory," notes Reich. "Now Los Alamos is one of the most optimistic." Meanwhile, the models produced by IHME and University of Texas at Austin respectively have substantially increased their projected deaths tolls — becoming among the most pessimistic.

There are a range of reasons for these changes. The scientists are getting new data; they are updating their methods as they calibrate their models against the reality to date; and Americans have stopped social distancing to the same degree as they had been in March and April — requiring models that assumed a longer stay-at-home period to adjust their forecasts upward.

But how do we make sense of these COVID-19 projections if the models can see-saw so abruptly from week to week? That's where Reich's "ensemble" model may be helpful. It's a strategy that forecasters use regularly to model not just disease outbreaks, but other phenomena ranging from weather to electoral outcomes.

 

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Reich thinks he can still improve his ensemble model. For instance, at the moment Reich is giving equal weight to each of the forecasts that go into it. But soon he hopes to give more weight to those that are proving more accurate — an approach that he uses in his ensemble models for flu.

"Model accuracy is one thing that we're tracking and we're hoping to release some information over the next few weeks," says Reich. "We've been sort of building the car as we're driving it at 90 miles an hour down the highway. And we're learning as we go."

 

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That said, Reich's setup compares projections through the next four weeks only — since many of the models don't offer forecasts beyond that point. This is why the latest update his team released projects deaths up to June 6.

Still, in that first week of June about 7,000 people are projected to die. The clear implication, adds Reich: The cumulative death toll of 110,000 forecast through June 6 will unquestionably rise much higher in the weeks beyond.

 

[mission27]

2 hours ago, Xenos said:

Making sense of all the different models and hopefully provide a more accurate picture by combining them all together aka Voltron. Just missing The MOL

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/13/855038708/combining-different-models-new-coronavirus-projection-shows-110-000-deaths-by-ju

Interesting.  MoL is now very close to IHME - although I think our model is too conservative tbh.  

[mission27]

5/13/2020 MoL Scores:

Methodology and disclaimer: MoL score is a simple metric for measuring rate of spread of the novel coronavirus within communities.  The metric was developed by mission and TLO and has not been subjected to academic peer review.  The MoL looks at a trailing average of daily new cases and compares this to trailing active cases within the community.  These rankings do not represent the opinion of anyone other than mission and TLO and should not be taken as advice of any kind.  Please note while the numbers themselves are objective calculations, smugness and Taylor Swift lyrics may factor into our commentary and decisions on tiers.  The MoL reserves the right to make changes to this methodology at any time.  Please follow all relevant governmental and/or WHO/CDC guidance.  We will defeat this virus.

"Looking at it now
Last December (last December)
We were built to fall apart
Then fall back together (back together)"

- Taylor Swift

Today USA numbers continue to get better and Canada nears some important milestones!

Tier 1: Outbreak under control, safe to begin relaxing social distancing measures

Tier 1 countries are pretty,... pretty... pretty good

How to safely open up in Tier 1? Take a look at the MoL method for proper easing, otherwise known as the MoL public health cost benefit matrix.

Israel: 0.6

Netherlands: 0.8

France: 1.0

Japan: 1.1

Czech Republic: 1.2

Italy: 1.2

Portugal: 1.2

Hong Kong: 1.5

Belgium: 1.5

South Korea: 1.8

China: 1.8

Australia: 1.9

Switzerland: 2.0

UK: 2.4

USA: 2.5

Philippines: 2.9 (into tier 1!)

Austria: 3.1

Turkey: 3.3

Sweden: 3.4

Spain: 3.6

Germany: 3.7

Ireland: 4.4

Tier 2: New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1

Tier 2 countries aren't  doing as well as Tier 1 countries, but eh, we'll give 'em a pass, why not!  Especially since Larry doesn't want to get fatwahed again.

Global: 3.4

Singapore: 4.0 (our two favorite countries are getting close to tier 1!)

Canada: 4.0 (our two favorite countries are getting close to tier 1!) 

Denmark: 5.4

Russia: 7.6

Tier 3: Countries in this group that are showing increased MoLs have the potential to go deep into the danger zones, but countries with falling MoLs may only be a couple of days from tier 2 status and may have already peaked in gross # of new cases

These countries could really do a lot better if they followed common decency standards, like washing their hands or respecting wood 

India: 10.0

Iran: 11.6

Brazil: 13.4

Tier 4: Aggressive growth, still likely have not peaked in single day cases, and likely a week or two minimum from peak in deaths (however many of these countries are still slowing down)

We feel very bad for the last Tier 4 country remaining on our list, the Mexico.  Its like that time Funkhauser became an orphan at 60 (RIP Funkhauser).

Mexico: 26.2

USA State Level MoLs

Wow, great job!  Numbers converging with worldometers. 

MoL Deaths

There have been 5,133 deaths since May 10th compared to an MoL projection of 5,967.  Wow, great job! 

Canada

Wow, great job!  Quebec below 5!

@JBURGE

The MoL would like to thank everyone for their contributions to this important work including @ET80 @acowboys62 @dtait93 @Dome @naptownskinsfan @kingseanjohn @Malfatron @Shady Slim @malagabears @daboyle250 @vikesfan89 @ramssuperbowl99 @sdrawkcab321 @Nazgul @kingseanjohn @mistakey @TwoUpTwoDown @Xenos @Nex_Gen @FinneasGage @TVScout @seriously27 @N4L and the others who love us so much

We'd even like to thank @pwny @Glen and others for their critical attitude because of the attention it brings to the great work MoL is doing 

@TLO

The message of this gif is that the MoL is signing out until tomorrow (although we reserve the right to **** on anyone who questions our authority on these matters)

[vikesfan89]

So did anything worthwhile come out of the testimonies?

[vikesfan89]

I think governor Walz was feeling the heat enough that some restrictions will be lifted next Monday

[mission27]

USA vs Netherlands death curves, including the next 14 days of MoL forecast (USA is about 14 days behind Netherlands)

Upswing and downswing was a little less steep but similar curve

Edited May 14, 2020 by mission27

[mission27]

3 minutes ago, mission27 said:

USA vs Netherlands death curves, including the next 14 days of MoL forecast (USA is about 14 days behind Netherlands)

Upswing and downswing was a little less steep but similar curve

And here is a REVISED MoL forecast, which tracks almost exactly with Netherlands

Under the revised MoL, we would get to 109k deaths by the end of July compared to a previous forecast of 135k

We'll see what happens

[Shady Slim]

there may well be a spike in australia's numbers from this friday onwards, because that is two weeks from when we started to get open... be interesting to see how things go but we're opening up more progressively as well moving forward, depending on how the data goes from these early stages of opening up

we really don't want to have to go backwards, obvs, so hopefully the people can stick to distancing while businesses open up and keep wearing masks and washing their hands etc so we don't have to go back to more restrictions

[naptownskinsfan]

9 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

I would assume most of the previously noted non-insane states have put re-starting surgeries as part of their first phase of re-opening. 

Considering you have state of the art sterilization procedures already in place, as long as the hospital isn't overrun that's one area we should be able to get up and running. Even if it would take investment to do so, it's a critical area of society to get back to normal ASAP right up there with the food supply.

I don't think many people would be on the other side of that stance either tbh.

I absolutely agree with that.  Also, most elective surgeries will eventually become necessary, so it's best to get this going sooner rather than later to avoid a backlog.  

[naptownskinsfan]

10 hours ago, dtait93 said:

Do they have millions and millions of test kits lying around for them though? That would be quite the feat to test that many people in a week..no country has even come close to sniffing that

Maryland acquired 500,000 from South Korea.  We also have the capacity to test 30,000 per day at the last report I read.  They shut down the MVA emissions testing stations and turned them into drive-thru testing facilities, as well as using Fed Ex Field for testing.  I think the biggest issue is as you alluded to, having the test kits made.  Raw materials are the concern right now. 

[naptownskinsfan]

8 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

No you are not,  and those testifying in front of Congress this week are delivering that exact message

The Atlantic has been compiling info on testing and lack of testing for months. Here's their critical article on it from May 8th.

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/05/theres-only-one-way-out-of-this-mess/611431/

"....experts say that if the country hopes to get its outbreak under control, it must double or triple the number of daily tests. But to an almost astonishing degree, the U.S. has no national plan for achieving this goal. There is no effort at the federal level that has mustered anything like the funding, coordination, or real resources that experts across the political spectrum say is needed to safely reopen the country. "

Caitlin Rivers, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, also struggled to articulate the lack of any federal plan this week.
For the past few months, Rivers has helped write a series of reports for the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank, about how to reopen the economy amid the pandemic. But testifying to Congress on Wednesday, she emphasized how little those plans had been followed and how much work remained to be done. The U.S. needs a federal team relentlessly focused on assessing and expanding its ability to test for the coronavirus, she said.

 

It's unfortunate, but I have a feeling that the federal government has left the governor's out to dry on this, and in turn, at least in Maryland, it appears that our governor is doing the same thing, leaving it to every county executive/city mayor to decide what they want to do.  The abdicating of responsibility has started at the top and trickled all of the way down.  

[naptownskinsfan]

Here is an update on Maryland's Phase One, which lifts the stay at home order as well as the following: 

Quote

In Phase One, the following restrictions have been eased, beginning 5 p.m. Friday:

• The stay-at-home order has been modified to a “safer-at-home” advisory.
• Retail businesses can reopen up to 50% capacity with strict safety precautions.
• Manufacturing can resume operations with the state issuing guidelines encouraging multiple shifts and physical distancing, among other safety precautions.
• Some personal services, such as barber shops and hair salons, may reopen at 50% capacity, and by appointment only.
• Churches and houses of worship may begin to hold religious services. Outdoor services are strongly recommended, and indoor services will be limited to 50% capacity, with requirements for masks and social distancing.
• Restaurants, movie theaters and gyms will remain closed during Phase One.

https://wtop.com/coronavirus/2020/05/maryland-coronavirus-update-may-13/

Different county executives are saying their areas are not ready, and will adopt none or some of the restrictions.  

[kingseanjohn]

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Health officials are looking into a rare inflammatory syndrome and how it could be impacting children during the coronavirus pandemic.

Now 15 states, including New York, are investigating cases that could be linked to Kawasaki disease ⁠– a rare inflammatory condition that often impacts children aged five years or younger ⁠– and toxic shock syndrome, Governor Andrew Cuomo said during his press briefing on Wednesday.

New York has discovered 102 cases in children that show symptoms similar to the rare disease and are now looking to see if there is a connection with Covid-19...

He added that 14 other states and five European countries were also looking into the rare syndrome to see if there was a link to those symptoms and the novel virus.

About 60 per cent of the 102 cases in New York tested positive for the coronavirus. Of those cases, 70 per cent were admitted into the ICU and 19 per cent resulted in intubation.

Either COVID related or just a terrible coincidence.

 

[beekay414]

The Wisconsin Supreme Court overturned our stay at home orders/plan and denied a stay on the order which opens up the entire state immediately without a single safeguard in place. I literally got numerous texts from "friends" at the bar already. I hope this country burns.

[naptownskinsfan]

11 minutes ago, beekay414 said:

The Wisconsin Supreme Court overturned our stay at home orders/plan and denied a stay on the order which opens up the entire state immediately without a single safeguard in place. I literally got numerous texts from "friends" at the bar already. I hope this country burns.

They struck down the six day request to try and negotiate things too.  This doesn't bode well for many of the places turning their stay at home orders into safer at home orders.