CW21's 2018 NFL Draft Review (Browns Up)

[Calvert28]

Gotta disagree with the Roquan being best value pick for the Bears. I thought he was a reach in the top 10. If i'm paying that much for a LB it should be a guy that can play any spot on the 2nd level as well as cover TE's on top of being able to blitz. Not one who is scheme dependent and more of a liability in coverage in a passing league which is strange considering his athletic ability it should be a strength of his. I would have went with Daniels as their best value considering his job of adjusting line assignments and protecting Mitch. I also think he has a much better shot at having a lasting career then Roquan with the way Smith throws himself around at his size.

[jrry32]

35 minutes ago, ttitansfan4life said:

I thought the Titans had a very good draft despite it only having 4 picks. Titans didn’t have a lot of needs and they attached their top 2 needs with their first 2 picks. Usually I’m pretty hesitant to give the Titans a good grade but honestly I think they had a very good draft. That has a lot to do with with landing Landry at 41 who imo is a top 20 talent. Obviously Robinson felt other teams were after Evans so he had to make the trade. It was reported the Steelers were after Evans hard. Cruikshank will be a developmental safety.  Highly doubt we see him at CB at all unless it’s in a joker type role but I expect that to be a while down the line. Maybe he takes Cyprien’s job down the line in which that would be a steal.  The Falk pick didn’t really bother me. He has his issues but his job is to develop into Mariota’s backup QB and LaFleur has done great work with QBs everywhere he’s been. Titans only had 4 picks but IMO they landed some UDFA’s that should’ve been drafted such as Wadley and Burnett. Both has a strong chance to make the roster now especially Wadley as the 3rd back.

Rashaan Evans will be a good LB, and Harold Landry has the potential to be 10+ sack per year rusher. I think y'all did very well. Landry was a top 20 prospect in my book.

[stl4life07]

@CWood21 I think people make too big of a deal of not having 1st or 2nd round picks. Like the Rams didn’t have a 1st round pick last year and still ended up having one of the best draft classes in terms of production when the season ended. I give the Rams B grade just because I think some are under selling a guy like Kiser. He is a tackling machine. Him and Kuechly are the only two players to lead the ACC in tackles for three straight seasons. Having a guy like Suh in front of him will allow him to get easy access to running backs to tackle them. Unlike Tree, Kiser won’t get ran over often and miss tackles. That will certain help the run defense. Kiser will start either day one or soon into the season. Okoronkwo is perfect for Wade. Wade is going to turn him into a pass rush demon. Then you look at the oline with guys like Noteboom and Allen. Those guys are very good developmental guys who in a few years working with Coach Kromer and learning from Whitworth and Sullivan will turn into good starters. Then I believe Kelly is the guy McVay wanted Dunbar to be last year when he signed him but Dunbar couldn’t stay healthy. I heard Kelly actually is a better receiver than Kamara. If that’s the case, he fits perfectly in McVay system because the Rams run a lot of screen and throws passes out of the backfield. So again don’t be surprised if the Rams draft class once again be very productive with guys like Okoronkwo, Kiser, Young, Howard, and even to an extent Kelly and by seasons end most will say the Rams had another successful draft.

[Broncofan]

4 hours ago, RuskieTitan said:

In terms of the grade I'd argue it's a B+ as we landed the two guys we felt will help our roster, so perfect from that perspective, but can't hit an A status when it's just largely two picks for the draft class.

If we were grading TEN on a per-pick basis, it would get an A for sure.   But yeah, it's hard when it's 2 impact guys.   Every team should expect 1 unless they've traded away early picks.   

Having said that, Landry was an absolute steal IMO.    Getting Evans-Landry and then Malcolm Butler in the secondary, well at the very least, it will help Deion Sanders sit up and take notice of that D and its best players this season.   Hopefully.

 

[Forge]

4 hours ago, stl4life07 said:

 I think people make too big of a deal of not having 1st or 2nd round picks.

They don't. The percentages still show better play from higher picks on average. You couldn't do that consistently and field a very good team. That being said, a year without picks in round one and two likely won't cripple a team, and it is still very possible to have a productive or even very good draft without them. Not likely, but very possible

[onejayhawk]

10 hours ago, CWood21 said:

The Bills got knocked twice on their Allen selection so to speak.  Personally, I felt they overpaid to move up to select Josh Allen.  I don't think that moving up 5 slots was worth 2 second round picks.  For me, that was their first strike.  The second strike was that I didn't like Josh Allen, and thought he was poor value at 12 let alone 7.  They reached for a player I didn't value nearly as high as the Bills clearly did, and I thought they gave up poor value for the 7th pick.

Again, don't confuse poor value with overpayment. They did not overpay. Indeed, they got a bargain because the price of the actual trade was less than they offered to the Browns and Broncos. 

J

[-Hope-]

fair review for the titans here. really boils down to whether the top two picks end up being home runs like we expect them to. it's a risky move, but frankly what our team needs most at this point isn't necessarily more mid-round picks, depth players, etc that we would've gotten by staying put or trading down. we need some athletic blue-chippers to push us over the top, and that's what we're banking on here, so i can appreciate the philosophy behind the draft even if it is pretty boom-or-bust.

[stl4life07]

10 hours ago, Forge said:

They don't. The percentages still show better play from higher picks on average. You couldn't do that consistently and field a very good team. That being said, a year without picks in round one and two likely won't cripple a team, and it is still very possible to have a productive or even very good draft without them. Not likely, but very possible

I don’t mean consistently without high picks I mean in general. It feels like as soon as a team don’t have a 1st or 2nd round pick in a year they automatically get a lower grade for it. Like the Rams had 3 all-pros in 2017 that they drafted round 3, round 5, and undrafted. 2 rookies that made the all-rookie team in 2017 both went in round 3. I know hindsight is 20/20 but that’s why in general people shouldn’t just lower a grade because a team didn’t have a 1st or 2nd round pick, especially if that team knows how to draft well under the GM, Head Coach, and just overall front office. 

[Techbert]

Some comments on some players that affect me:

1. Tremaine Edmunds, although he can play all 4 LB spots (and prolly SS, but I digress), quarterbacked VPI's challenging 46 defense effectively. Sean McDermott's defense needs such a defensive quarterback to be truly effective. Edmunds is effective in pass defense and has unlimited range. To say this is a position that is not worth a mid-first round pick is saying Luke Kuechly was not good value when he was picked. Not saying Edmunds is Luke Kuechly, as he is Tremaine Edmunds, but speaking about your comment about positional value. I also believe that if Edmunds was more valuable outside, such as under his next coach, he could effectively pass rush. He shows great closing speed and I saw good bend on the one or two plays it was appropriate.

2. The Bears better hope James Daniels can be effective at og, since that appears to be where they are putting him. Whitehair is the center. But with the ease that Daniels moves, he should be a superior pass pro guard.

3. I don't get the skepticism of Anthony Miller's ability to play outside. Memphis moved him around a lot to keep other teams from focusing on him, but I expect him to be okay inside or outside once he settles into one role in the pros and can focus on the fine points of either inside or outside. His long speed is good but not great, but it is pro level good. PFF did a graphic of the qb efficiency rating when thrown to when running the different routes and Miller won them all: post. hitch, comeback, out, and screen. The QBR was 139.6 on posts, which tells me he can play outside. (And other posters have properly defended the draft trade.)

4. I expect Ogbo Okoronkwo to be a strong special teams player and fill-in at olb, which is a typical expectation of a 5th round pick. So I do not see this pick as a "gamble." He may work himself into a productive starter someday, which is again a typical ceiling of a 5th rounder.

Bonus: "indepthly" is totally a bigly word and is worthy of your draft covfefe.

[Uncle Buck]

I'm looking forward to seeing your review of the Vikings draft class, CWood21.  It will be nice to get an unbiased review of how we did.  A lot of us were disappointed when we didn't take an offensive lineman in the first round, but it seems like a lot of people are coming around to feeling good about how everything turned out.  I didn't do much research leading up to the draft this year, so I don't really know what to think.

[CWood21]

1(30) - Mike Hughes [CB; UCF]
2(62) - Brian O'Neill [OT; Pittsburgh]
4(102) - Jalyn Holmes [EDGE; Ohio State]
5(157) - Tyler Conklin [TE; Central Michigan]
5(167) - Daniel Carlson [K; Auburn]
6(213) - Colby Gossett [OG; Appalachian State]
6(213) - Ade Aruna [EDGE; Tulane]
7(225) - Devante Downs [LB; California]

Coming off an impressive 2017 season and signing Kirk Cousins, hope was high in Minnesota.  They had a chance to continue to add pieces to the puzzle and hopefully put Minnesota in a place to compete for a title after coming up short in 2017.  Upgrading the offensive line seemed like a high priority going into the offseason, and when their biggest FA signing for the offensive line was adding Tom Compton to add depth on the OL, most felt that the Vikings would target OL early and often.  Instead, at 30 they stuck to their big board and grabbed Mike Hughes.  In terms of value, there's really no reason to hate.  He was a late 1st, early 2nd depending on whether or not you chose to hold the character concerns against him.  But the bigger question I have is that they used another high pick on a corner.  You need 3 starting-caliber corners in the NFL, and they have Xavier Rhodes as one of their boundary corners and he's locked up for the foreseeable future.  They drafted Trae Waynes early in the first round of the 2015 draft, and then followed it up by taking Mackensie Alexander in the second round of the 2016 draft.  And they still have veteran Terrance Newman under contract.  So at first glance, it appears they drafted a guy who projects to be their dime corner.  While I admired them sticking to their board and drafting BPA, they left a LOT of OL on the board with Will Hernandez, Austin Corbett, James Daniels, and Connor Williams still on the board.  But they stuck to their board, and in the second round they looked to address their OL finally by drafting Brian O'Neill.  Unfortunately, he's a bit of a project and quite frankly I don't think he improves the Vikings' OL in the slightest as a rookie short of an injury forcing him into the lineup.  He's a bit raw in terms of projection, and they're clearly playing the long game with him but given the big commitment they just made to Kirk Cousins would the Vikings have been better off flipping their selections and grabbing an OL first and then going for a corner in the second? That's probably going to be a question the Vikings fans are going to ask themselves if their picks flop.  I know it really doesn't have any bearing on this, but this selection brought back bad memories of the discussion regarding T.J. Clemmings back in 2015.  And it's not like the Vikings have a history of developing OL.  The Vikings have done a good job of developing pass rushers in the middle rounds of the draft, and they're hoping to keep that trend continuing with their selection of Jalyn Holmes.  He's not an explosive athlete and in terms of production, he was dead last among the draft eligible DL for Ohio State.  My question is this, how high would he have been drafted if he played for a non-powerhouse D1 school?  My guess is he'd go undrafted.  I'd like to give Minnesota the benefit of the doubt given their history, but it's hard to see this one panning out.  Getting Tyler Conklin in the 5th round was really solid value.  I'm not sure he'll ever be a starting TE, but I think he can be a steady #2.  Add in the bloodlines, and it's hard to hate this pick even if it doesn't really push the needle for the Vikings.  I've never really been a supporter of drafting specialists, unless we're talking about a guy whose an "elite" specialist or a returner.  I'm not sure Daniel Carlson is that.  Last year, Kai Forbath was 16th in FG% but 30th in XP%.  The Vikings clearly felt they needed to improve, especially in terms of XP but if you're looking to add competition then I probably would have waited a bit later.  They were the first one to draft a kicker, which means they weren't really chasing a run.  The Vikings grabbed another OL late with Gossett, but he's probably nothing more than a developmental type who spends the year on the PS.  Ade Aruna is an interesting guy.  He was incredibly explosive in the 10 yard split, but his 3 cone was terrifyingly bad.  Makes me question how much lateral agility he has, and as a pass rusher that's HUGE.  At 262 pounds, Aruna ran a 7.53 3 cone.  For context, Bradley Chubb at 269 pounds ran a 7.37 3 cone.  That's a drastic difference.  Add on the the difference in production, and while I don't hate the gamble I think expecting anything out of him is unrealistic.  Devante Downs wasn't even on my radar at the time, so I don't really have much for him.  Overall, the Vikings had an incredibly interesting draft.  I had expected them to target their OL of choice in the first, whether it be Will Hernandez or Connor Williams who were my two highest ranked OL at the time.  My question would be this, would the Vikings be better off going with Hernandez/Williams in the 1st and taking Carlton Davis in the 2nd.  And that's the question I think Vikings fans are going to be asking a few years from now.

Best Value Pick: Tyler Conklin [TE; Central Michigan]
Worst Value Pick: Jalyn Holmes [EDGE; Ohio State]
Grade: C

[CWood21]

@Heimdallr @SemperFeist @Klomp @vike daddy @CriminalMind @disaacs @SteelKing728 @TENINCH @rpmwr19 @Krauser @since72 @Uncle Buck @Ozzy @JDBrocks @VikeManDan @Magnus-Viktor @Eric dunn @gopherwrestler @vikingsrule @marshpit23 @Robb_K @solidvikingfan

[CWood21]

On 5/6/2018 at 6:06 PM, TitanLegend said:

A B is probably what I'd assign the Titans as well. The lack of picks really is what keeps it from being any higher.

Honestly, that's what probably what killed it for me.  The Titans have essentially hedged their bets on Rashaan Evans and Harold Landry.  Quite frankly, I don't think it's a good business model but for one year it shouldn't kill them.  The problem is if even one of them flops, they're up a creek.  For what they had, I thought they did pretty damn good even if I wasn't a huge Evans fan.  More of an early 2nd round value, but they were clearly in a group of teams who would have considered taking him.  Don't hate the draft, but don't love the risk they took.  Probably in the upper half of the drafts.

[CWood21]

On 5/6/2018 at 6:35 PM, ttitansfan4life said:

I thought the Titans had a very good draft despite it only having 4 picks. Titans didn’t have a lot of needs and they attacked their top 2 needs with their first 2 picks. Usually I’m pretty hesitant to give the Titans a good grade but honestly I think they had a very good draft. That has a lot to do with with landing Landry at 41 who imo is a top 20 talent. Obviously Robinson felt other teams were after Evans so he had to make the trade. It was reported the Steelers were after Evans hard. Cruikshank will be a developmental safety.  Highly doubt we see him at CB at all unless it’s in a joker type role but I expect that to be a while down the line. Maybe he takes Cyprien’s job down the line in which that would be a steal.  The Falk pick didn’t really bother me. He has his issues but his job is to develop into Mariota’s backup QB and LaFleur has done great work with QBs everywhere he’s been. Titans only had 4 picks but IMO they landed some UDFA’s that should’ve been drafted such as Wadley and Burnett. Both has a strong chance to make the roster now especially Wadley as the 3rd back.

LIS, I don't hate the draft.  I just think it creates a TON of inherent risk.  If Evans/Landry develop as expected, nobody is going to blink about the picks they gave up to move up.  But the Titans added no real depth to the roster, and they essentially put all their eggs in Evans/Landry's basket.  I had Evans as a clear third tier behind Smith/Edmunds who were in a tier by themselves, and then LVE who was in a tier by himself.  I guess the saving grace for me was there was a bigger difference between Evans tier and the next tier than there was between LVE and Evans.

[CWood21]

On 5/6/2018 at 7:02 PM, Calvert28 said:

Gotta disagree with the Roquan being best value pick for the Bears. I thought he was a reach in the top 10. If i'm paying that much for a LB it should be a guy that can play any spot on the 2nd level as well as cover TE's on top of being able to blitz. Not one who is scheme dependent and more of a liability in coverage in a passing league which is strange considering his athletic ability it should be a strength of his. I would have went with Daniels as their best value considering his job of adjusting line assignments and protecting Mitch. I also think he has a much better shot at having a lasting career then Roquan with the way Smith throws himself around at his size.

Honestly, I think the Bears' board matched up pretty damn similar to mine.  Didn't quite like Smith that high, but if you take him in that 11-15 range I'd be stoked.  He's going to be a good player, which sucks for me as a Packers fan.  Like I mentioned, they need to keep him clean which given their current DL situation I'm not fond of.  I don't have any issues with his coverage abilities.  I don't think he's ever going to be an elite cover LB, but I think he'll hold more than his own.  Quite frankly, I hated the trade for Miller WAY more than the pick itself.