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Danger

Danger

Posted
Posted

Sigh....

montco-map-2.jpg

 

Not a single day has gone by in the entire month of April in which my country has been in the "safe" region. The threshold would be 30 cases per day for us, and the lowest in all of April was 31 on April 1st. We'd need to be below 415 new cases in a 2 week period, but we're currently at... 2612. Also consider that adjacent counties also are factored in so if they aren't doing ok then you may not be able to open still regardless. Philadelphia itself is at 592 new cases per day and needs to be below 57. 

It's entirely possible that we don't open until pretty late this year, and who knows how bad it'll be if we get a 2nd wave? If I don't see light at the end of the tunnel in the next month or two, then things are going to get ugly.

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Forge

Forge

Posted
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57 minutes ago, Danger said:

Sigh....

montco-map-2.jpg

 

Not a single day has gone by in the entire month of April in which my country has been in the "safe" region. The threshold would be 30 cases per day for us, and the lowest in all of April was 31 on April 1st. We'd need to be below 415 new cases in a 2 week period, but we're currently at... 2612. Also consider that adjacent counties also are factored in so if they aren't doing ok then you may not be able to open still regardless. Philadelphia itself is at 592 new cases per day and needs to be below 57. 

It's entirely possible that we don't open until pretty late this year, and who knows how bad it'll be if we get a 2nd wave? If I don't see light at the end of the tunnel in the next month or two, then things are going to get ugly.

I used to live in Delaware county (Darby), and they don't even have a health department. Figured things probably weren't going to go well in some areas over there. 

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TLO

TLO

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4/25/2020 MoL Scores:

Methodology and disclaimer: MoL score is a simple metric for measuring rate of spread of the novel coronavirus within communities.  The metric was developed by mission and TLO and has not been subjected to academic peer review.  The MoL looks at a trailing average of daily new cases and compares this to trailing active cases within the community.  These rankings do not represent the opinion of anyone other than mission and TLO and should not be taken as advice of any kind.  Please note while the numbers themselves are objective calculations, smugness and Taylor Swift lyrics may factor into our commentary and decisions on tiers.  The MoL reserves the right to make changes to this methodology at any time.  Please follow all relevant governmental and/or WHO/CDC guidance.  We will defeat this virus.

"Because these things will change
Can you feel it now?
These walls that they put up to hold us back will fall down'"

- Taylor Swift

Today the MoL is smug, particularly revolving around Singapore. In honor of the previous 4/20 holiday, some of TLO’s comments below will be in green.

Tier 1: Outbreak under control, safe to begin relaxing social distancing measures

South Korea: 0.3 - tbh I’d say there are more pressing issues in this region of the world given how steady and low their numbers are. Refer to the other thread in TAST for more on this.

Hong Kong: 0.6 - I am smug about being right about the protesting being back on the table tbh

Australia: 0.6 - they are doing solid on the back of @Shady Slim

China: 1.3 - very promising levels here tbh

Czech Republic: 1.8 

Austria: 1.9

Switzerland: 2.4 

France: 2.4 - the french are making great strides and we love them very much

Tier 2: New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1

Italy: 2.6 

Portugal: 2.6 ()

Netherlands: 2.6

Philippines: 3.1 (#seasonality)

Israel: 3.3

Germany: 3.7

Belgium: 4.2

Japan: 4.4

UK: 4.4 ()

Turkey: 4.5

Spain: 4.8 

USA: 4.7 - still think we are in the midst of the plateau here. We gotta keep grinding here to really power through. Knock on wood if you’re with me.

Global: 4.9 ()

Sweden: 5.4 ()

Iran: 6.1* ()

Denmark: 6.6

Canada: 7.6 - I wonder if @JBURGE got it. It would serve him right for failing to deliver the goods tbh

Ireland: 9.6 - Leps ain’t doing too bad @FinneasGage

India: 10.6 ()

Tier 3: Countries in this group that are showing increased MoLs have the potential to go deep into the danger zones, but countries with falling MoLs may only be a couple of days from tier 2 status and may have already peaked in gross # of new cases

Russia: 12.7 ()

Singapore: 13.0 - Tbh the MoL was right once again. Hopefully everyone has come to expect nothing less

Brazil: 17.0

Mexico: 18.6

Tier 4: Aggressive growth, still likely have not peaked in single day cases, and likely a week or two minimum from peak in deaths (however many of these countries are still slowing down)

Nothing here rn, MoL will go in search of new countries

USA State Level MoLs

image.png

Minnesota and Iowa are getting schlonged here tbh. They are also pretty flea states, and the states the MoL frequents continue to be strong.

MoL.png

The MoL would like to thank everyone for their contributions to this important work including @ET80 @acowboys62 @dtait93 @Dome @naptownskinsfan @kingseanjohn @Malfatron @Shady Slim @malagabears @daboyle250 @vikesfan89 @ramssuperbowl99 @sdrawkcab321 @Nazgul @kingseanjohn @mistakey @TwoUpTwoDown @Xenos @Nex_Gen @FinneasGage and the others who love us so much

We'd even like to thank @pwny @Glen and others for their critical attitude because of the attention it brings to the great work MoL is doing 

@mission27

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TVScout

TVScout

Posted
Posted

Coronavirus Antibody Tests: Can You Trust the Results?

A team of scientists worked around the clock to evaluate 14 antibody tests. A few worked as advertised. Most did not.

Quote

Tests made by Sure Biotech and Wondfo Biotech, along with an in-house Elisa test, produced the fewest false positives.

A test made by Bioperfectus detected antibodies in 100 percent of the infected samples, but only after three weeks of infection. None of the tests did better than 80 percent until that time period, which was longer than expected, Dr. Hsu said.

The lesson is that the tests are less likely to produce false negatives the longer ago the initial infection occurred, he said.  In the new study, the Innovita test detected antibodies in 83 percent of infected people and yielded a false-positive rate of 4 percent.  

Dr. Marson and his colleagues have acquired tests from nearly 100 manufacturers, and plan to continue comparing them. The scientists also hope to expand their sample set to include people who were mildly ill or did not feel ill at all, and to stratify their data by age and the presence of chronic conditions.

“This is just the beginning,” Dr. Marson said. “Our goal would be to keep going till we feel there’s adequate supply in the market.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/health/coronavirus-antibody-tests.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20200426&instance_id=17959&nl=morning-briefing&regi_id=127802529&segment_id=26000&te=1&user_id=0ec3b530f45ff5c070e34ae9b6fc8ea1

 

 

Plus this:

https://covidtestingproject.org/

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naptownskinsfan

naptownskinsfan

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, diehardlionfan said:

I’m going to be very interested in aviation numbers post lockdown. 

I mean, I am ready to go out and do some things but there is no way I would get in an airplane or travel right now.  I'm really going to miss the trips an hour north of me to get fresh strawberries and peaches right now- my grandmother makes jams and ice cream out of them.  

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naptownskinsfan

naptownskinsfan

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Posted
1 hour ago, Runaway Jim said:

Nice draft. Will football even be played in 2020?

PGA Tour is playing at the start of June without crowds.  MLB is coming closer to some sort of plan to play without crowds, depending on who you talk to.  It came across my phone this weekend that the NHL is planning on resuming the season at some point soon as well.  I think it's very possible we get pro football in some form.  I'm really concerned about the college season. 

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naptownskinsfan

naptownskinsfan

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Xenos said:

Someone mentioned about glasses fogging up with a mask. Here's some solutions:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2020/04/16/how-to-stop-face-masks-from-fogging-up-your-glasses/?fbclid=IwAR3DhPCDhVZgufvBX7DzcHrN-a7Ig_afNtWgFsZWmSVg7-X2HcGzy1LW4hw#6fa48a482e6a

That was me.  Thanks for sharing.  Haven't found anything that works yet though.  

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diehardlionfan

diehardlionfan

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, naptownskinsfan said:

I mean, I am ready to go out and do some things but there is no way I would get in an airplane or travel right now.  I'm really going to miss the trips an hour north of me to get fresh strawberries and peaches right now- my grandmother makes jams and ice cream out of them.  

I’m retired and we do some travelling. It will now be in our vehicle. Im concerned about how they get aircraft flying. I’ve heard they are removing all middle rows on aircraft. There’s a bunch of other steps however the seat reduction will either kill revenue or cause significant price increases. The entire industry faces a large restructuring.

What I wouldn’t give to be able to pluck a peach right from the tree. We used to live in the interior of B.C. which is fruit and wine country. Of all things I’ve ever tasted a peach fresh off the tree is one of the most amazing. Nothing like the 🍑 in stores.

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