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naptownskinsfan

naptownskinsfan

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, diehardlionfan said:

I’m retired and we do some travelling. It will now be in our vehicle. Im concerned about how they get aircraft flying. I’ve heard they are removing all middle rows on aircraft. There’s a bunch of other steps however the seat reduction will either kill revenue or cause significant price increases. The entire industry faces a large restructuring.

What I wouldn’t give to be able to pluck a peach right from the tree. We used to live in the interior of B.C. which is fruit and wine country. Of all things I’ve ever tasted a peach fresh off the tree is one of the most amazing. Nothing like the 🍑 in stores.

Yeah, the place where I go has pick your own fruit throughout the summer and fall.  Strawberries, cherries, apples, multiple peach rotations, nectarines and pumpkins.  Go a little further north onto the MD/PA border and there are a ton of other places to get fresh fruit in the same way.  I make the trip every few weeks, it also helps they have an antique mall where I got bobbleheads and memorabilia at, as well as a shopping mall where prices are cheaper than Annapolis, so I can get work clothes for less than half of the price of shopping at home.  

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Glen

Glen

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, Danger said:

Sigh....

montco-map-2.jpg

 

Not a single day has gone by in the entire month of April in which my country has been in the "safe" region. The threshold would be 30 cases per day for us, and the lowest in all of April was 31 on April 1st. We'd need to be below 415 new cases in a 2 week period, but we're currently at... 2612. Also consider that adjacent counties also are factored in so if they aren't doing ok then you may not be able to open still regardless. Philadelphia itself is at 592 new cases per day and needs to be below 57. 

It's entirely possible that we don't open until pretty late this year, and who knows how bad it'll be if we get a 2nd wave? If I don't see light at the end of the tunnel in the next month or two, then things are going to get ugly.

Montgomery country represent. Have some friends who own restaurants/bars in Bucks county that say they're looking at September as the absolute earliest they can open. Have been telling all my friends we're likely not going to get back to normal till next year given I'm expecting a second wave come the fall.

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mission27

mission27

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, diehardlionfan said:

I’m retired and we do some travelling. It will now be in our vehicle. Im concerned about how they get aircraft flying. I’ve heard they are removing all middle rows on aircraft. There’s a bunch of other steps however the seat reduction will either kill revenue or cause significant price increases. The entire industry faces a large restructuring.

What I wouldn’t give to be able to pluck a peach right from the tree. We used to live in the interior of B.C. which is fruit and wine country. Of all things I’ve ever tasted a peach fresh off the tree is one of the most amazing. Nothing like the 🍑 in stores.

Yeah I guess the good / bad news is there will be less demand for air travel for a while, so blocking off middle seats may be more realistic than it would during normal times

Personally I think its less of a game changer than people seem to be suggesting.  If you are 1.5 feet away from someone with COVID instead of right next to them, you could still get sick. It probably helps a little.  Masks probably help.  I think the biggest thing though is leveraging the fact that you know everyone on a plane and where they sat to do aggressive tracing if someone tests positive - its super important that we have teams in place with all the airlines to contact people who are most likely to have had contact and the testing capacity easily available (e.g. at pharmacies) for those people to get immediately tested

I personally will be back on planes as soon as there is somewhere worth going (either for work or to see friends) that isn't in lockdown, but I'm young and relatively low risk and completely understand why others feel differently.  And if I'm going to Boston, Montreal, or DC maybe better off driving than flying despite the headache.  But if I need to be in LA or Vegas or something?  Wouldn't really think twice, life is too short

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mission27

mission27

Posted
Posted
21 hours ago, Danger said:

Sigh....

montco-map-2.jpg

 

Not a single day has gone by in the entire month of April in which my country has been in the "safe" region. The threshold would be 30 cases per day for us, and the lowest in all of April was 31 on April 1st. We'd need to be below 415 new cases in a 2 week period, but we're currently at... 2612. Also consider that adjacent counties also are factored in so if they aren't doing ok then you may not be able to open still regardless. Philadelphia itself is at 592 new cases per day and needs to be below 57. 

It's entirely possible that we don't open until pretty late this year, and who knows how bad it'll be if we get a 2nd wave? If I don't see light at the end of the tunnel in the next month or two, then things are going to get ugly.

The issue is that as we expand testing, case numbers will go up as a result of that. 50 per 100k residents is 50 reported cases. And we know testing is very sparse still. 50 reported cases could mean 2000 actual cases. So if that's the appropriate level now, the appropriate level if we are testing 10x more people needs to be higher. 

Tbh we need to see how things go over the next few weeks and as we get into mid-May, if its clear we aren't going to get to these milestones, we need new milestones because people are already getting extremely antsy and wont accept staying home much longer. Flattening the curve is great but we can only do so much and have to be realistic

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TLO

TLO

Posted
Posted

4/26/2020 MoL Scores:

Methodology and disclaimer: MoL score is a simple metric for measuring rate of spread of the novel coronavirus within communities.  The metric was developed by mission and TLO and has not been subjected to academic peer review.  The MoL looks at a trailing average of daily new cases and compares this to trailing active cases within the community.  These rankings do not represent the opinion of anyone other than mission and TLO and should not be taken as advice of any kind.  Please note while the numbers themselves are objective calculations, smugness and Taylor Swift lyrics may factor into our commentary and decisions on tiers.  The MoL reserves the right to make changes to this methodology at any time.  Please follow all relevant governmental and/or WHO/CDC guidance.  We will defeat this virus.

"'This is a big world, that was a small town
There in my rearview mirror disappearing now
And its too late for you and your white horse
Now its too late for you and your white horse, to catch me now"

- Taylor Swift

Today, as with many days, the MoL is smug. 

Tier 1: Outbreak under control, safe to begin relaxing social distancing measures

South Korea: 0.3  - They will have a Blank Space pretty soon regarding cases iyam

Hong Kong: 0.4 - The people of Hong Kong continue to drive their numbers down in Style. 

Australia: 0.7 - I was Enchanted to see this number @Shady Slim

China: 1.4 - Perhaps they have found Wonderland?

Czech Republic: 1.5 - Their numbers continue to go All Too Well tbh

France: 1.8 - They have had The Best Day tbh

Austria: 2.1

Italy: 2.5 - Loving Italy's numbers is Red tbh

Portugal: 2.5 

Netherlands: 2.5

Switzerland: 2.8 

Tier 2: New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1

 

Israel: 3.2

Philippines: 3.6 (#seasonality)

Turkey: 3.7

Germany: 3.9

Japan: 3.9

Belgium: 4.0

UK: 4.3 

Spain: 4.4 

USA: 4.7 - Hopefully we can break through this level so we don't have a Cruel Summer of Social D

Global: 4.7  - This number is solid, but the world would go Back to December and do some things differently if it could tbh

Sweden: 5.1 

Iran: 6.1* 

Denmark: 6.7

Canada: 7.2 

India: 10.1 

Ireland: 10.6

Tier 3: Countries in this group that are showing increased MoLs have the potential to go deep into the danger zones, but countries with falling MoLs may only be a couple of days from tier 2 status and may have already peaked in gross # of new cases

Russia: 11.6 - 

Singapore: 10.9 - This number is what is primarily driving our current unhinged smugness. As long as the numbers Stay Stay Stay, we will be smug.

Brazil: 18.3 - Not to best number, so we are hoping to see our friends in Brazil start to turn a corner until we can get to a point where Everything Has Changed there.

Tier 4: Aggressive growth, still likely have not peaked in single day cases, and likely a week or two minimum from peak in deaths (however many of these countries are still slowing down)

Mexico: 22.5 - I don't know about you, but Mexico is feeling 22.

USA State Level MoLs

image.png

LA is still putting putting up pretty concerning numbers. This is probably payback for that horrific Bobby Jindal SOTU response a few years back.

MoL.png

The MoL would like to thank everyone for their contributions to this important work including @ET80 @acowboys62 @dtait93 @Dome @naptownskinsfan @kingseanjohn @Malfatron @Shady Slim @malagabears @daboyle250 @vikesfan89 @ramssuperbowl99 @sdrawkcab321 @Nazgul @kingseanjohn @mistakey @TwoUpTwoDown @Xenos @Nex_Gen @FinneasGage and the others who love us so much

We'd even like to thank @pwny @Glen and others for their critical attitude because of the attention it brings to the great work MoL is doing 

@mission27

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N4L

N4L

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 4/24/2020 at 3:04 PM, mistakey said:
On 4/24/2020 at 10:54 AM, theJ said:

I live out in the country.  3 ambulances have gone by my house in the last 2 days.  Don't remember the last time one went past before that.

Hard to think that at least one, probably all three, aren't COVID cases.

Haunting isnt it?

imagine that nearly 24-7.  That was what it was like about 1 or 2 weeks ago in nyc (cant really remember time isnt a thing anymore )

They are training all staff to drive... All firemen are learning how to drive the trucks, all EMTs are learning how to drive ambulances. There is no one on the road and the perfect time for all of these people who have never driven the vehicle with the sirens on to learn. Just in case they need to know how in a few months (also gas is cheap)

So, yes, it's covid related, but it's not necessarily due to someone actually being sick 

At least that's how it is here in the bay area. After the 3rd or 4th ambulances I saw with female drivers stopped at redlights with their sirens on, I figured that's what it had to be. I know several EMTs and firemen here and they confirmed it

Maybe that's not how it was in NYC, but that's what it is here. 1 million people with 1 thousand confirmed cases so there really isn't a reason for me to hear 10+ sirens a day like I have been. 

It's been almost 6 weeks of quarantine and cops are starting to really try and enhance the shut downs here. Heavy handed fines. I guess these cities need revenue.

EDIT: for example, a plumber I know got a $550 "parking" ticket because he was parked on a main Street on the coast. He was there making necessary and essential plumbing repairs, and the cops ran his plate, saw he was more than 5 miles from his house, gave him a ticket. It was his personal truck and not work truck, but still. $550 is too much imo

Edited by N4L
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Leader

Leader

Posted
Posted

BBC News (World) -  People in Germany will have to wear facemasks as new rules come into force to curb the spread of coronavirus.

/////

Meanwhile...home on the ranch...Americans are flocking to the beaches in droves.

 

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