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in This aint sports talk!

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WizeGuy

WizeGuy

Posted
Posted (edited)

With SKs recent outbreak due to opening clubs it only reinforces the idea the NY will likely shift between phase 2 and phase 3 for the foreseeable future.

 

Summer time shouldn't be too terrible. Just camp, play golf, boat, etc...I'd be surprised if we get to the point where bars can be open regularly this summer unless treatment is improved drastically or the virus weakens. 

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vikesfan89

vikesfan89

Posted
Posted

I went to get some takeout from a restaurant that opened up not long before the shutdown. I wasn't sure if they were going to make it but it was good to see how busy they were.

On a side note, how has there not been a shortage of to go containers?

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N4L

N4L

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, vikesfan89 said:

Are you saying that people should go outside?

They even mention the immune system

Yes, people absolutely should go outside and get sunshine while being completely isolated and/or wearing a mask

Even if the science didn't show vitamin D could potentially decrease the mortality rate, I would say people should go outside and get sunshine for their mental wellbeing. it is known that vitamin d deficiency is very poor for your mental health (which is very closely associated with your physical health btw)

 

Going outside and getting sunshine =/= everything 'opening up'

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vikesfan89

vikesfan89

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, N4L said:

Yes, people absolutely should go outside and get sunshine while being completely isolated and/or wearing a mask

Even if the science didn't show vitamin D could potentially decrease the mortality rate, I would say people should go outside and get sunshine for their mental wellbeing. it is known that vitamin d deficiency is very poor for your mental health (which is very closely associated with your physical health btw)

 

Going outside and getting sunshine =/= everything 'opening up'

I didn't say it did, but "stay inside" is being pounded into our heads. I always felt like everyone being couped up inside wasn't a great option. Obviously places like New York it's probably pretty hard to get outside and keep your distance.

I think they were a little quick to shut down outdoor areas but Minnesota has opened up parks etc

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naptownskinsfan

naptownskinsfan

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, vikesfan89 said:

I went to get some takeout from a restaurant that opened up not long before the shutdown. I wasn't sure if they were going to make it but it was good to see how busy they were.

On a side note, how has there not been a shortage of to go containers?

There are a ton of restaurant suppliers.  In addition to that, most restaurants had some sort of "to go" containers already in stock.  Also, with them not being at their normal levels of business for just carryout, it's allowing for restaurants who are open to get what they need. 

Also, the restaurant supply chains are used to allocations on what they can and can't buy due to the volatile nature of the business- especially produce items- so they are well-versed in making things work.  

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N4L

N4L

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, vikesfan89 said:

I didn't say it did, but "stay inside" is being pounded into our heads. I always felt like everyone being couped up inside wasn't a great option. Obviously places like New York it's probably pretty hard to get outside and keep your distance.

I think they were a little quick to shut down outdoor areas but Minnesota has opened up parks etc

this is why I felt the need to clarify the point I was making so that you wouldn't misconstrue. It was clear that you were referring to the 'stay inside' vs 'opening up the economy' debate. I was simply saying that people should find a way to get vitamin D because it is good for them 

The people in NYC that cant go outside for sunshine, or people in seattle/London that don't get a lot of sunshine, can still get a lot of vitamin D by taking supplements

California opening up parks as well. I want to go camping. hopefully some of the state/national parks' campsites open soon, should be safe with the exceptions of the bathrooms. 

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mission27

mission27

Posted
Posted

5/9/2020 MoL Scores:

Methodology and disclaimer: MoL score is a simple metric for measuring rate of spread of the novel coronavirus within communities.  The metric was developed by mission and TLO and has not been subjected to academic peer review.  The MoL looks at a trailing average of daily new cases and compares this to trailing active cases within the community.  These rankings do not represent the opinion of anyone other than mission and TLO and should not be taken as advice of any kind.  Please note while the numbers themselves are objective calculations, smugness and Taylor Swift lyrics may factor into our commentary and decisions on tiers.  The MoL reserves the right to make changes to this methodology at any time.  Please follow all relevant governmental and/or WHO/CDC guidance.  We will defeat this virus.

"But she wears short skirts
I wear T-shirts
She's cheer captain
And I'm on the bleachers
Dreaming about the day when you wake up
And find that what you're looking for has been here the whole time"

- Taylor Swift

Today the US breaks a key milestone and the MoL is smug. 

Tier 1: Outbreak under control, safe to begin relaxing social distancing measures

giphy.gif

Tier 1 countries are pretty,... pretty... pretty good

How to safely open up in Tier 1? Take a look at the MoL method for proper easing, otherwise known as the MoL public health cost benefit matrix.

China: 0.3 (sticking at the all-time low)

Hong Kong: 0.3 

South Korea: 0.6 (every day that goes by that South Korea doesn't have a major resurgence is great news for the world)

Israel: 0.6

Netherlands: 0.9

Czech Republic: 1.2

Italy: 1.3 (Italy back at their all-time low)

France: 1.3

Portugal: 1.4

Belgium: 1.5

Switzerland: 1.6

Japan: 1.8

Austria: 2.2

Australia: 2.4 (Shady's progress unfortunately reversed today)

Turkey: 2.9

Sweden: 3.0

Germany: 3.1

Spain: 3.3 (a big of a bump the last few days, but we'll keep them here for now)

Tier 2: New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1

source.gif

Tier 2 countries aren't  doing as well as Tier 1 countries, but eh, we'll give 'em a pass, why not!  Especially since Larry doesn't want to get fatwahed again.

USA: 2.9 (could the US be a day away from Tier 1? tune in tomorrow for TLOs two cents)

UK: 3.2 (another all-time low, again UK isn't properly closing recovered cases so this skews low, we will wait until they are in the mid-2s in all likelihood) 

Philippines: 3.3

Ireland: 3.5

Global: 3.8 (holding steady, been pretty flat the past 11 days or so, as Europe has stabilized at very good numbers, US continues to drop, and part of the developing world are struggling mightily) 

Singapore: 4.3 (#seasonality for #singapore makes MoL smug af)

Canada: 4.7 (Canada's a lot better off than they were a week ago, with a full 2 point drop; tomorrow they transition to the full 7 day MoLs we have used for the rest of the world, hopefully its a low reporting day)

Denmark: 6.4

Tier 3: Countries in this group that are showing increased MoLs have the potential to go deep into the danger zones, but countries with falling MoLs may only be a couple of days from tier 2 status and may have already peaked in gross # of new cases

giphy.gif

These countries could really do a lot better if they followed common decency standards, like washing their hands or respecting wood 

Russia: 9.9 (staying put for now)

Iran: 10.8* (karmas a ***** and MoL was right to keep them here)

India: 12.0

Brazil: 17.4

Tier 4: Aggressive growth, still likely have not peaked in single day cases, and likely a week or two minimum from peak in deaths (however many of these countries are still slowing down)

source.gif

We feel very bad for the last Tier 4 country remaining on our list, the Mexico.  Its like that time Funkhauser became an orphan at 60 (RIP Funkhauser).

Mexico: 24.1 (another drop, good for them)

USA State Level MoLs

image.png

State by states continue to look solid with a few exceptions, supporting the US case to be moved into Tier 1 shortly; testing was above 300k cases today and all-time low of percent positive

MoL Deaths

Another meaningful drop, now 19% below the all-time high of less than 3 weeks ago, would be closer to 25% lower if not for the New York City delayed reporting and cases dropped each day this week with the exception of the NYC reporting day.

image.png

MoL.png

The MoL would like to thank everyone for their contributions to this important work including @ET80 @acowboys62 @dtait93 @Dome @naptownskinsfan @kingseanjohn @Malfatron @Shady Slim @malagabears @daboyle250 @vikesfan89 @ramssuperbowl99 @sdrawkcab321 @Nazgul @kingseanjohn @mistakey @TwoUpTwoDown @Xenos @Nex_Gen @FinneasGage @TVScout @seriously27 @N4L and the others who love us so much

We'd even like to thank @pwny @Glen and others for their critical attitude because of the attention it brings to the great work MoL is doing 

@TLO

source.gif

The message of this gif is that the MoL is signing out until tomorrow (although we reserve the right to **** on anyone who questions our authority on these matters)

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mission27

mission27

Posted
Posted
Just now, animaltested said:

Well, we can preview what post quarantine life will be like :

https://www.businessinsider.com/seoul-bars-and-clubs-closed-after-covid-19-cases-linked-2020-5

Racing around chasing down 7000 because one dude tested positive after a night of club hopping.

Do you honestly believe the US has the resources and willpower to do this? DOUBT.

Eh I dont think it will be like that here... 

South Korea has like 15 cases a day, we have 2,000x as many and maybe 20,000x as many in reality

We are never going to get anywhere near that low so chasing down 1 case is never going to be a priority

The priority will be surveillance testing to prevent outbreaks.  But the genie is out of the lamp, everyone here has a high likelihood of getting COVID at some point, the priority is going to be preventing healthcare system overload and large scale outbreaks 

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