Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[animaltested]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/wisconsin-bars-packed-supreme-court-overturns-stay-at-home-ruling/

So when Wisconsiners call themselves Cheeseheads, it literally means their brains are Swiss cheese right?

[vikesfan89]

1 hour ago, animaltested said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/wisconsin-bars-packed-supreme-court-overturns-stay-at-home-ruling/

So when Wisconsiners call themselves Cheeseheads, it literally means their brains are Swiss cheese right?

They want to take the high score from Minnesota in the mol

[mission27]

2 minutes ago, vikesfan89 said:

They want to take the high score from Minnesota in the mol

Currently, South Dakota and Minnesota are the only states in the nation above an MoL of 10.  However the Dakotas are clearly puppet states of Minnesota tbh so they are in no danger of losing the title as of yet.

Edited May 15, 2020 by mission27

[Xenos]

Why are they testing positive again?

https://news.yahoo.com/sailors-sidelined-carrier-virus-second-172942709.html

[mission27]

30 minutes ago, Xenos said:

Why are they testing positive again?

https://news.yahoo.com/sailors-sidelined-carrier-virus-second-172942709.html

False negatives

We went through this whole shebang a few weeks ago in Korea, highly highly unlikely virus is being reinfected or reactivated

Edit: given we know some of these tests only catch 50% of the positives, its not surprising.  And if they had been isolated for 14 days theres very little chance they were still contagious anyway so not a huge deal either way imo

Edited May 15, 2020 by mission27

[vikesfan89]

There is a lot of people on the lake

[rob_shadows]

58 minutes ago, vikesfan89 said:

There is a lot of people on the lake

I had drive to through South Bend today on the way to pick up my new kitten and it was pretty busy, people stopped caring a while ago tbh. Although to be fair a good number of them were wearing masks.

[candyman93]

Kinda curious how Detroit is doing. That was a city I was really worried about.

 

Obviously I feel awful for large cities like NYC, Chicago, and LA. However, they will recover.
 

 

I don’t know how Detroit does.

[rob_shadows]

House passed the new stimulus bill but it's considered almost a certainty that it's DOA when it reaches the Senate

[mission27]

5/15/2020 MoL Scores:

Methodology and disclaimer: MoL score is a simple metric for measuring rate of spread of the novel coronavirus within communities.  The metric was developed by mission and TLO and has not been subjected to academic peer review.  The MoL looks at a trailing average of daily new cases and compares this to trailing active cases within the community.  These rankings do not represent the opinion of anyone other than mission and TLO and should not be taken as advice of any kind.  Please note while the numbers themselves are objective calculations, smugness and Taylor Swift lyrics may factor into our commentary and decisions on tiers.  The MoL reserves the right to make changes to this methodology at any time.  Please follow all relevant governmental and/or WHO/CDC guidance.  We will defeat this virus.

"Dive bar on the East Side, where you at?
Phone lights up my nightstand in the black
Come here, you can meet me in the back"

- Taylor Swift

Today TLO smugly dodged a bullet or did he

Tier 1: Outbreak under control, safe to begin relaxing social distancing measures

Tier 1 countries are pretty,... pretty... pretty good

How to safely open up in Tier 1? Take a look at the MoL method for proper easing, otherwise known as the MoL public health cost benefit matrix.

Israel: 0.4

France: 0.5

Netherlands: 0.5

Portugal: 0.8

Japan: 0.9

Italy: 1.1

Belgium: 1.2

Hong Kong: 1.6

Czech Republic: 1.4

UK: 1.7

Switzerland: 1.9

Australia: 2.0

USA: 2.3 (all-time low and BELOW China and South Korea now, great job!)

China: 2.6

South Korea: 2.6

Philippines: 2.9

Spain: 3.1

Sweden: 3.3

Germany: 3.4

Turkey: 3.4

Austria: 3.6

Tier 2: New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1

Tier 2 countries aren't  doing as well as Tier 1 countries, but eh, we'll give 'em a pass, why not!  Especially since Larry doesn't want to get fatwahed again.

Global: 3.2

Canada: 3.7 (ALL-TIME LOW!  QUEBEC INCHING TOWARDS 4)

Singapore: 3.8 (all-time low for S as well)

Denmark: 4.6

Ireland: 5.1 (headed back in the right direction)

Russia: 6.7

Tier 3: Countries in this group that are showing increased MoLs have the potential to go deep into the danger zones, but countries with falling MoLs may only be a couple of days from tier 2 status and may have already peaked in gross # of new cases

These countries could really do a lot better if they followed common decency standards, like washing their hands or respecting wood 

India: 9.4

Iran: 11.9

Brazil: 13.5

Tier 4: Aggressive growth, still likely have not peaked in single day cases, and likely a week or two minimum from peak in deaths (however many of these countries are still slowing down)

We feel very bad for the last Tier 4 country remaining on our list, the Mexico.  Its like that time Funkhauser became an orphan at 60 (RIP Funkhauser).

Mexico: 20.9

USA State Level MoLs

Wow, great job!  Per the state numbers we're even lower.

MoL Deaths

There have been 8,443 deaths since May 10th compared to an MoL projection of 8,853.  Wow, great job!   

Deaths declined again week over week, although more modestly than the first five days of the week, in part because last Fridays number had already been a pretty good number.  Tomorrow may be hard to beat last week by much as well, but we'll see. 

Canada

Wow, great job!  Quebec dropping like a rock, great job 

@JBURGE

The MoL would like to thank everyone for their contributions to this important work including @ET80 @acowboys62 @dtait93 @Dome @naptownskinsfan @kingseanjohn @Malfatron @Shady Slim @malagabears @daboyle250 @vikesfan89 @ramssuperbowl99 @sdrawkcab321 @Nazgul @kingseanjohn @mistakey @TwoUpTwoDown @Xenos @Nex_Gen @FinneasGage @TVScout @seriously27 @N4L and the others who love us so much

We'd even like to thank @pwny @Glen and others for their critical attitude because of the attention it brings to the great work MoL is doing 

@TLO

The message of this gif is that the MoL is signing out until tomorrow (although we reserve the right to **** on anyone who questions our authority on these matters)

[Xenos]

4 hours ago, mission27 said:

False negatives

We went through this whole shebang a few weeks ago in Korea, highly highly unlikely virus is being reinfected or reactivated

Edit: given we know some of these tests only catch 50% of the positives, its not surprising.  And if they had been isolated for 14 days theres very little chance they were still contagious anyway so not a huge deal either way imo

I wonder if the false positive was from the first testing since this only came up because the 5 sailors said that they had influenza like symptoms.

[mission27]

Interesting map from Daily M, lets review the places with increasing cases:

California: Positive test % has been flat over the past 2-3 weeks, but about 20% more tests this week than the previous week (an all-time high in both cases) driving higher number of raw cases.

Oregon: Positive test % falling, increase in raw cases driven by testing. 

Arizona: Positive test % falling, increase in raw cases driven by testing. 

Minnesota: Positive test rate stabilizing after 2-3 weeks of steadily increasing, indicating we may be nearing the peak but still very troubling 

Arkansas:  Positive test % falling, increase in raw cases driven by testing. 

Kentucky:  Positive test % falling, increase in raw cases driven by testing. 

Alabama:  Less clear exactly what is going on here, testing is pretty flat and there may be a slight uptick in positive test %s, but cases per capita remain very low so could be noise.

North Carolina:  Positive test % falling, increase in raw cases driven by testing. 

Delaware: Positive test % falling, increase in raw cases driven by testing, although positive test rate remains a little higher than we'd like its approaching the important 10% milestone. 

Maine: Testing data is not good enough to determine what is going on, most likely the same story as these other states but not 100% clear

[Xenos]

48 minutes ago, rob_shadows said:

House passed the new stimulus bill but it's considered almost a certainty that it's DOA when it reaches the Senate

Yup pretty much. Ideally, the Senate at least try to negotiate and see if there's a middle ground.

Slight tangent but CA had built a $16 billion surplus slowly over the years ever since the 2008 recession. And now the surplus is expected to be wiped out because of this pandemic. I believe the deficit is estimated to be $50+ billion. Salary cuts are going to happen as well as layoffs. However, this could be averted with more state help from the federal government. Not necessarily just to CA but I'm sure other states need it too.

Which is a long about way of saying that I'm a little annoyed that it's DOA when it reaches the Senate.

Edited May 16, 2020 by Xenos

[mission27]

5 minutes ago, Xenos said:

I wonder if the false positive was from the first testing since this only came up because the 5 sailors said that they had influenza like symptoms.

Possible, or possible they had exposure but not enough of a viral load to develop antibodies (as far as I understand this is highly unlikely if they had a legitimate positive test result) 

Would be interesting to know did they have flu like systems the first time around

[mission27]

2 minutes ago, mission27 said:

Interesting map from Daily M, lets review the places with increasing cases:

California: Positive test % has been flat over the past 2-3 weeks, but about 20% more tests this week than the previous week (an all-time high in both cases) driving higher number of raw cases.

Oregon: Positive test % falling, increase in raw cases driven by testing. 

Arizona: Positive test % falling, increase in raw cases driven by testing. 

Minnesota: Positive test rate stabilizing after 2-3 weeks of steadily increasing, indicating we may be nearing the peak but still very troubling 

Arkansas:  Positive test % falling, increase in raw cases driven by testing. 

Kentucky:  Positive test % falling, increase in raw cases driven by testing. 

Alabama:  Less clear exactly what is going on here, testing is pretty flat and there may be a slight uptick in positive test %s, but cases per capita remain very low so could be noise.

North Carolina:  Positive test % falling, increase in raw cases driven by testing. 

Delaware: Positive test % falling, increase in raw cases driven by testing, although positive test rate remains a little higher than we'd like its approaching the important 10% milestone. 

Maine: Testing data is not good enough to determine what is going on, most likely the same story as these other states but not 100% clear

And while I'll give them credit for a nice map, the headline on this article is the perfect example of bad reporting:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8325209/CDC-director-says-models-predict-coronavirus-deaths-accelerate-coming-weeks.html

CDC is not saying deaths with accelerate.  They are saying deaths will continue to grow, which is obvious, because people die every day right now in the thousands.  The MoLs death model which assumes a pretty solid and consistent DE-celeration in deaths over the next month and a half gets to about 110k deaths at the end of June which is right around the midpoint of CDCs forecasts.  To give you a little context our model (which has been highly accurate) would say we will be at 100 to 200 deaths a day by the end of June which would be enormous progress vs. where we are now.  Of course, those numbers don't account for a second wave.  I'm just saying if our number is in line with CDCs forecasts that implies the CDC forecasts are showing anything but an acceleration.