Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[naptownskinsfan]

53 minutes ago, kingseanjohn said:

Kansas City extended their stay at home order until May 15. The state only has one until May 3.

It blows my mind how many people are already trying to plan trips to celebrate Cinco de Mayo.

People really want to get out right now.  Traffic out in my area has increased over the Easter holiday, and both of our current work locations are much busier than the previous 2-3 weeks.  

[MacReady]

Anyone else realizing how little they actually got out anyway because of this?

So far the only thing I miss is my thrift store treasure hunting.  I’m loving this once every three weeks grocery shopping, too.

 

[ET80]

3 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/16/sp-500-etf-jumps-2percent-after-hours-on-report-gilead-drug-showing-effectiveness-treating-coronavirus.html

@ET80

 

I'mma get rich! Even richer than yesterday, when I got my Corona stimmy!

[Troy Brown]

1 hour ago, naptownskinsfan said:

Knowing how my area is, with a huge business for drinking downtown, a 200 store shopping mall and plenty of other restaurants and drinking establishments further out, I definitely see it being an issue.  Really going to have to enforce social distancing and a cap on people being inside the building.  

It won't be enforced in most bars, let's be real. I'm sure, on some level, I understand the financial repercussions of keeping things closed down (very bad) and I'm also sure that I don't understand the likelihood of a second wave, but I tend to think keeping things closed a week too late will benefit us a lot more than a week too early. 

[mission27]

4/16/2020 MoL Scores:

Methodology and disclaimer: MoL score is a simple metric for measuring rate of spread of the novel coronavirus within communities.  The metric was developed by mission and TLO and has not been subjected to academic peer review.  The MoL looks at a trailing average of daily new cases and compares this to trailing active cases within the community.  These rankings do not represent the opinion of anyone other than mission and TLO and should not be taken as advice of any kind.  Please note while the numbers themselves are objective calculations, smugness and Taylor Swift lyrics may factor into our commentary and decisions on tiers.  The MoL reserves the right to make changes to this methodology at any time.  Please follow all relevant governmental and/or WHO/CDC guidance.  We will defeat this virus.

"'Do you believe it?
We're gonna make it now
And I can see it"

- Taylor Swift

Today, the MoL continues to gloat about our enemies getting banned and a lot of countries stagnate but the USA gets guidelines

Tier 1: Outbreak under control, safe to begin relaxing social distancing measures

Hong Kong: 0.5 (a new ALL TIME low)

South Korea: 0.9 (consistency is king as they say)

Australia: 1.1 (could the Shadys get below 1? tune in tomorrow to find out)

Czech Republic: 2.0

Austria: 2.0

Switzerland: 2.7 

Tier 2: New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1

Portugal: 3.7

Italy: 3.3 (new cases ticked up slightly but still an ATL)

Germany: 3.8 

Israel: 4.3 

Netherlands: 4.5

Denmark: 4.7 (after I gave Denmark so much credit yesterday, their MoL ticks up today, not great)

Spain: 5.0 (back down nearly to all-time low from two days ago)

China: 5.1 (back down to 5ish because they're withholding today's number to trick the MoL, bastards)

Sweden: 5.4

USA: 5.8 (USA is now better than average, LFG! GUIDELINES! PHASE 1!)

Global: 6.1

Philippines: 6.1 

Iran: 6.7* (when your MoL goes up even with fudged numbers, that's kind of sad)

UK: 7.0 

Belgium: 7.3 

France: 7.9 (French reporting is worse than French frontier defenses tbhwy)

Canada: 8.4 (oh Canada)

Japan: 8.4 (back into Tier 2)

Brazil: 9.9 

Tier 3: Countries in this group that are showing increased MoLs have the potential to go deep into the danger zones, but countries with falling MoLs may only be a couple of days from tier 2 status and may have already peaked in gross # of new cases

Turkey: 9.2 (not quite ready to bump them up into Tier 2)

Ireland: 10.1 

Mexico: 13.5

India: 13.9

Note most of the Tier 3 countries appear to be relatively stable, with the exception of Turkey which has shown a noticeable slowdown.  If anyone has suggestions on who we should add let us know.

Tier 4: Aggressive growth, still likely have not peaked in single day cases, and likely a week or two minimum from peak in deaths (however many of these countries are still slowing down)

Russia: 23.1 (MoL ticks back up, what a disaster)

USA State Level MoLs

Is SD getting better?

The MoL would like to thank everyone for their contributions to this important work including @ET80 @acowboys62 @dtait93 @Dome @naptownskinsfan @kingseanjohn @Malfatron @Shady Slim @malagabears @daboyle250 @vikesfan89 @ramssuperbowl99 @sdrawkcab321 @Nazgul @kingseanjohn @mistakey @TwoUpTwoDown @Xenos @Nex_Gen @FinneasGage and the others who love us so much

We'd even like to thank @pwny @Glen and others for their critical attitude because of the attention it brings to the great work MoL is doing 

@TLO

Edited April 17, 2020 by mission27

[naptownskinsfan]

1 hour ago, Troy Brown said:

It won't be enforced in most bars, let's be real. I'm sure, on some level, I understand the financial repercussions of keeping things closed down (very bad) and I'm also sure that I don't understand the likelihood of a second wave, but I tend to think keeping things closed a week too late will benefit us a lot more than a week too early. 

Yeah, a lot of business owners will try to get by and sneak around it.  I also expect other restrictions that they "should" be working under won't be followed either.  It's a shame, but that's how a lot of the restaurant/bar industry is sadly.  

[malagabears]

Anyone see this blurb? Thoughts?

 

[WizeGuy]

11 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/16/sp-500-etf-jumps-2percent-after-hours-on-report-gilead-drug-showing-effectiveness-treating-coronavirus.html

@ET80

 

I wonder how they plan to roll this out if it is effective. From what I've read- it's very expensive and takes a while to make. How would people afford it? Will insurance cover it? How do we determine who gets it if it's in limited supply? From what I've read- it's most useful if used early in treatment, so perhaps give it to the most at risk who've tested positive even and start to show symptoms?

 

Antibody treatment can be used for those who are severely ill. Remsidivir given early in treatment to the most at risk group. Hopefully, the noted side effects during the  Remsidivir trials are due to patients being treated being severely ill rather than the Remsidivir itself.

Edited April 17, 2020 by WizeGuy

[mission27]

13 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/16/sp-500-etf-jumps-2percent-after-hours-on-report-gilead-drug-showing-effectiveness-treating-coronavirus.html

@ET80

 

mission's Gilead shares 

[mission27]

1 hour ago, WizeGuy said:

I wonder how they plan to roll this out if it is effective. From what I've read- it's very expensive and takes a while to make. How would people afford it? Will insurance cover it? How do we determine who gets it if it's in limited supply? From what I've read- it's most useful if used early in treatment, so perhaps give it to the most at risk who've tested positive even and start to show symptoms?

 

If it works, you scale up production no matter what it costs and give whatever you can make to the serious ill patients

If it really saves 98% of seriously ill patients we'll all be at baseball games in a few months

Edited April 17, 2020 by mission27

[ramssuperbowl99]

16 minutes ago, mission27 said:

mission's Gilead shares 

[Shanedorf]

2 hours ago, WizeGuy said:

I wonder how they plan to roll this out if it is effective. From what I've read- it's very expensive and takes a while to make. How would people afford it? Will insurance cover it? How do we determine who gets it if it's in limited supply? From what I've read- it's most useful if used early in treatment, so perhaps give it to the most at risk who've tested positive even and start to show symptoms?

Remdesivir is a small molecule which means its not that expensive to make compared to a biologic like a vaccine or antibody treatment.
However, it has to be dosed IV so its not a candidate for mass delivery to patients unless intravenous- dosing- at home becomes a thing. ( it won't )

And here's a couple of interesting snippets from the Gilead website:

Researchers doubt this recent study data is anything more than suggestive, if that.
“The data from this paper are almost uninterpretable,” Stephen Evans, a professor of pharmacoepidemiology at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, told Bloomberg. “There is some evidence suggesting efficacy, but we simply do not know what would have happened to these patients had they not been given the drug.”

Which is why more organized clinical trials with controls are necessary. And Gilead is not denying that.

“In studying remdesivir, the question is not just whether it is safe and effective against COVID-19, but in which patients it shows activity, how long should they receive treatment and at what stage of their disease would treatment be most beneficial,” said Daniel O’Day, Gilead’s chairman and chief executive officer.
“Many answers are needed, which is why we need multiple types of studies involving many types of patients.”

...about 25% of patients receiving it have severe side effects, including multiple-organ dysfunction syndrome, septic shock, acute kidney injury and low blood pressure. Another 23% demonstrated evidence of liver damage on lab tests."

Acute Kidney Injury ( AKI) is a serious problem and one of the biggest killers in the world, leading to more deaths than cancer or heart disease. The other adverse events listed are no picnic either. I don't particularly enjoy being the Grim Reaper every time there is some positive news, but clinical drug development is mostly failure. Its a really tough business to be in and shines a light on how little we actually know.

[mistakey]

43 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

i told you

did you listen to me? did you?!?!

[mistakey]

i didnt listen to me

[Hunter2_1]

20 hours ago, animaltested said:

Well, yes, it should? 

Tough pill to swallow, but for every one person that sabotages their health intentional, you have scores more with variety of reasons beyond their control. You don't have the time to weed and seed these cases, so you need the broad platform to ensure everyone gets a right to staying alive. 

Also, I think we blame individuals way too harshly when the system overall is set up for individuals to fail:

Food deserts created by a ruthless, and dehumanizing housing and business market.

Poor infrastructure discouraging outdoor exercise or activities; and preventing walking from being a adequate choice in most areas. [Gotta pump up those cars numbers]

Corporate lobbying preventing information from being put out about unhealthy food options or pushing for the normalization and recommendations for unhealthy products.

The fact that from birth to death, you are constantly bombarded by hundreds of hours of advertisements for extremely unhealthy foods. Many of them being incredibly and intentionally deceptive.

Foods being jam packed with sugar and sugar like substances (even if sugar isn't even supposed to be in it), and the efforts to hide or distract from it.

Many individuals are pushed into low paying, high stress, high hour (multiple jobs) careers, living pay check to check, resulting in choosing quick, inexpensive food options. The cheapest food is by far the most unhealthy.

Little to no education related to food choices, and the economics of buying food in school. Completely reliant on family education which creates cycles of unhealthiness.

 

The system completely crushes individuals. Its down right oppressive. And you are not really aware of it, until you step outside the US and see how weird it is. It takes almost a Herculean effort to combat all these factors; and places the ENTIRE burden upon the individual to keep themselves informed. 

 

From the perspective of someone who's lived both IN USA and outside it (in Europe) for all his life, this is so true. It IS oppressive. It's like a real life Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. In many ways it's good, you have all these eateries which provide mouth watering options (and options and options....) but it's good because it's a rare treat, if you're not from there. 

also in many parts of europe, this kind of food IS the more expensive kind. It's the fresh fruit and veg and pasta and seafood that is cheapest. Whereas whole foods are probably on the expensive side in a lot of America. 

I guess it is up to the individual, and no one is forced to eat this stuff, but it's definitely harder to avoid there.