Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Ty21]

13 minutes ago, kingseanjohn said:

Damn, that's horrible.

Source

I’ve been inadvertently following the story since Zach Braff is good friends with the guy. 

[Malfatron]

5 minutes ago, Tyty said:

I’ve been inadvertently following the story since Zach Braff is good friends with the guy. 

im embarassed for the friend

even seen Garden State?

[Ty21]

14 minutes ago, Malfatron said:

im embarassed for the friend

even seen Garden State?

Every chance I get 

[malagabears]

@mission27 Spain is still in Tier II finding it very difficult to get over the hump down into the 2-3 range. Today better numbers but cannot see us getting into tier I for another 10-14 days. Our stay at home social distancing will be extended until 9 May it looks like.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

6 hours ago, kingseanjohn said:

Damn, that's horrible.

Source

Damn, I went to high school with his wife.

[vikesfan89]

8 hours ago, naptownskinsfan said:

That's what I thought.  I wasn't aware that Canada's was only for unemployment.  

I don't think most people are

For some reason people also seem to not realize that people can get unemployment in addition to the stimulus checks in the US

[vikesfan89]

7 hours ago, mission27 said:

A quick note today, everyone is STRONGLY encouraged to join MoL's coronavirus mafia which will be both entertaining and educational.  Ty.  There are 2 spots remaining. 

4/18/2020 MoL Scores:

Methodology and disclaimer: MoL score is a simple metric for measuring rate of spread of the novel coronavirus within communities.  The metric was developed by mission and TLO and has not been subjected to academic peer review.  The MoL looks at a trailing average of daily new cases and compares this to trailing active cases within the community.  These rankings do not represent the opinion of anyone other than mission and TLO and should not be taken as advice of any kind.  Please note while the numbers themselves are objective calculations, smugness and Taylor Swift lyrics may factor into our commentary and decisions on tiers.  The MoL reserves the right to make changes to this methodology at any time.  Please follow all relevant governmental and/or WHO/CDC guidance.  We will defeat this virus.

"'Don't you see the starlight, starlight

Dont you dream impossible dreams"

- Taylor Swift

Today, scores are relatively stagnant, except in the great USA where things are getting much better 

Tier 1: Outbreak under control, safe to begin relaxing social distancing measures

Hong Kong: 0.5 (7 straight days of single digits cases and another day at the all-time low)

South Korea: 0.8 (another day at the all-time low for South Korea too)

Australia: 1.6 

Austria: 2.0

Czech Republic: 2.0

Switzerland: 3.2

Tier 2: New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1

Italy: 3.2 (interestingly, Italy ticks up by 0.1 on Saturday for the third week in a row, there seems to be some pattern in the data)

Portugal: 3.4

Israel: 3.5

Netherlands: 4.3

Germany: 4.4

Denmark: 4.9

Philippines: 5.3 (a new all-time low for the Philippines!)

Spain: 5.6

USA: 5.6 (a new all-time low for the USA!)

Sweden: 6.0

Global: 6.1 (the overall average of our group has held steady for the past 3 days, suggesting some of the curve flattening benefit from social D may have maxed out, remember 5-7 is the steady state number, so I dont know how much lower this can go, especially with the Russia effect, but we'll see)

Belgium: 6.6

UK: 6.7 

Iran: 6.9* (consistently bs numbers, tbh)

Turkey: 7.6

Ireland: 8.0

Japan: 8.0 (Japan ya boomed today)

China: 8.0 (China Russia wave slowing? Slevin might know about rivers)

France: 8.3 

Canada: 9.0 (Canada dropped a bit today, Trudeau's smugness about how well they are doing still seem misplaced tbhwy)

Tier 3: Countries in this group that are showing increased MoLs have the potential to go deep into the danger zones, but countries with falling MoLs may only be a couple of days from tier 2 status and may have already peaked in gross # of new casesBrazil: 11.1

India: 13.3

Mexico: 17.6

Tier 4: Aggressive growth, still likely have not peaked in single day cases, and likely a week or two minimum from peak in deaths (however many of these countries are still slowing down)

Russia: 22.1 (not looking good tbh)

USA State Level MoLs

South Dakota crack into Tier 3!  There is now only 1 state in the union (North Dakota, which has had a mini spike) above 20 MoL.  Really something else when you consider the US AVERAGE was 28.6% less than 3 weeks ago when the MoL started this whole shenanigans and now even our worst states, the Dakotas, are below that. 

The MoL would like to thank everyone for their contributions to this important work including @ET80 @acowboys62 @dtait93 @Dome @naptownskinsfan @kingseanjohn @Malfatron @Shady Slim @malagabears @daboyle250 @vikesfan89 @ramssuperbowl99 @sdrawkcab321 @Nazgul @kingseanjohn @mistakey @TwoUpTwoDown @Xenos @Nex_Gen @FinneasGage and the others who love us so much

We'd even like to thank @pwny @Glen and others for their critical attitude because of the attention it brings to the great work MoL is doing 

@TLO

I don't know if it's true but I saw an article that says MN is the lowest infected state per capita

[mission27]

33 minutes ago, vikesfan89 said:

I don't know if it's true but I saw an article that says MN is the lowest infected state per capita

Almost true, I have them tied with Hawaii after Puerto Rico and Wyoming

[mistakey]

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/493530-french-researchers-high-temperatures-ineffective-against-coronavirus

 

cough

[Hunter2_1]

"Because the virus is novel, researchers still are learning things about the virus on a weekly, if not daily, basis. The Centers of Disease and Control and Prevention states on its website that it is “not yet known whether weather and temperature affect the spread of COVID-19.”

because the majority of testing across the globe has been done outside the tropics, it is hard to accurately say the effect a warm, moist climate has on COVID-19, the MIT study said.

“Our results in no way suggest that 2019-nCoV would not spread in warm humid regions and effective public health interventions should be implemented across the world to slow down the transmission of 2019-nCoV,” it said.

Marc Lipsitch, director at the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at Harvard, wrote, “changing seasons and school vacation may help, but are unlikely to stop transmission. Based on the analogy of pandemic flu, we expect that COVID-19, as a virus new to humans, will face less immunity and thus transmit more readily even outside of the winter season.”"

 

 

[mission27]

48 minutes ago, mistakey said:

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/493530-french-researchers-high-temperatures-ineffective-against-coronavirus

 

cough

Totally different 

They are talking about destroying virus using heat or chemicals, not talking about impact of climate on transmission

Seasonality doesn't rely on 200 degree temps to destroy virus

[mistakey]

14 minutes ago, mission27 said:

Totally different 

They are talking about destroying virus using heat or chemicals, not talking about impact of climate on transmission

Seasonality doesn't rely on 200 degree temps to destroy virus

if disease doesnt die on surfaces . . .

[incognito_man]

8 minutes ago, mistakey said:

if disease doesnt die on surfaces . . .

Isn't it the UV, not the "heat" (didn't read article, assuming IR radiation), that kills pathogens?

Edited April 19, 2020 by incognito_man

[mission27]

3 minutes ago, mistakey said:

if disease doesnt die on surfaces . . .

Tbh your understanding of the seasonality of infectious disease is quite poor, which shouldn't be surprising given your position on this has been contrary to every expert starting with the MoL tbh

Whether the disease can survive high temperatures or not does not say anything about the impact of high temperature and humidity and sunlight on the efficiency of transmission and reproduction, prevalence and virulence of droplets, on people's immune functions, vitamin D levels, and human social behavioral differences all of which are believed to contribute to seasonality of infectious diseases. 

The disease being 'destroyed' at mega high temperatures has zero to do with seasonality.  That question is more relevant for sanitizing.  Influenza isn't "destroyed" at 85 degrees F and humid either or it wouldn't survive in the human body.  But its transmission slows dramatically if its 85 and humid.  

Tbh though I dont really blame you because the headline as usual is wildly misleading and I believe purposefully so

[mistakey]

Just now, mission27 said:

Tbh your understanding of the seasonality of infectious disease is quite poor, which shouldn't be surprising given your position on this has been contrary to every expert starting with the MoL tbh

Whether the disease can survive high temperatures or not does not say anything about the impact of high temperature and humidity and sunlight on the efficiency of transmission and reproduction, prevalence and virulence of droplets, on people's immune functions, vitamin D levels, and human social behavioral differences all of which are believed to contribute to seasonality of infectious diseases. 

The disease being 'destroyed' at mega high temperatures has zero to do with seasonality.  That question is more relevant for sanitizing.  Influenza isn't "destroyed" at 85 degrees F and humid either or it wouldn't survive in the human body.  But its transmission slows dramatically if its 85 and humid.  

Tbh though I dont really blame you because the headline as usual is wildly misleading and I believe purposefully so

obviously this disease resisting high temperatures has no affect on its ability to survive during the summer
man i am such an idiot