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NateDawg

NateDawg

Posted
Posted

What I'm getting out of this thread is that if it's not scientifically educational, it is getting us through the corona by at least entertaining us.  I don't really have any specific, tangible takeaways, but I'm still here for it. 

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mission27

mission27

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Posted (edited)

5/17/2020 MoL Scores:

Methodology and disclaimer: MoL score is a simple metric for measuring rate of spread of the novel coronavirus within communities, by comparing a trailing average of new cases to the number of active cases several days ago.  Currently we are calculating a 7 day trailing MoL.  The metric was developed by mission and TLO and has not been subjected to academic peer review.  The commentary accompanying these metrics are informed both by the metric and other factors and do not represent the opinion of anyone other than mission and TLO.  They should not be taken as advice of any kind.  Please note while the numbers themselves are objective calculations, smugness and Taylor Swift lyrics among other things may factor into our commentary and decisions on tiers.  The MoL reserves the right to make changes to this methodology at any time.  Please follow all relevant governmental and/or WHO/CDC guidance.  We will defeat this virus.

""Oh my God, who is she?"
I get drunk on jealousy
But you'll come back each time you leave
'Cause darling I'm a nightmare dressed like a daydream"

- Taylor Swift

Today the MoL gets attacked again and yet again we overcome all obstacles. 

Tier 1: Outbreak under control, safe to begin relaxing social distancing measures

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Tier 1 countries are pretty,... pretty... pretty good

How to safely open up in Tier 1? Take a look at the MoL method for proper easing, otherwise known as the MoL public health cost benefit matrix.

Israel: 0.4

France: 0.4

Netherlands: 0.5

Portugal: 0.9

Belgium: 1.0

Japan: 1.0

Italy: 1.1

UK: 1.5

Czech Republic: 1.6

Switzerland: 2.1

South Korea: 2.2

Hong Kong: 2.2

USA: 2.3 

Spain: 2.3

Australia: 2.4

Philippines: 2.8

Sweden: 2.9

Germany: 3.5

China: 3.6

Turkey: 3.9

Austria: 4.6 (fyi why we aren't moving them out of tier 1 just yet... the number of daily cases is low and stable, so this isn't really a new wave so much as the result of the first wave of cases flushing through as recoveries, and as we've always said given it takes ~20 days to recover from this the steady state MoL will always be around 5. so Austria is the first country to trend towards a steady state MoL with a low number of cases and we will leave them here until / unless we see a wave 2 developing)

Tier 2: New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1

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Tier 2 countries aren't  doing as well as Tier 1 countries, but eh, we'll give 'em a pass, why not!  Especially since Larry doesn't want to get fatwahed again.

Global: 3.1

Singapore: 3.2 (all-time low!)

Ireland: 3.3 (really headed in the right direction now, and along with S, may be tier 1 soon)

Canada: 3.6 (down to 3.6, which is an all-time low, and new cases are down to their lowest since April 2nd.  Quebec is also about to break the 4 barrier and isn't that different from an MoL perspective from Ontario now, although obviously with a higher per capita base of cases.  Montreal is starting to loosen restrictions so we'll see how that goes.  MoL is hopeful but very worried at the same time for our French Canadian friends.)

Denmark: 3.9

Russia: 5.5 (they've clearly done a nice job flattening the curve based on the reported numbers, while there's some reason to doubt it I tend to believe things have started to improve a bet in Moscow, but also read some scary stuff about the spread into less affluent parts of Russia.  thankfully much of Russia is pretty spread out and rural, so we'll hope for the best)

Tier 3: Countries in this group that are showing increased MoLs have the potential to go deep into the danger zones, but countries with falling MoLs may only be a couple of days from tier 2 status and may have already peaked in gross # of new cases

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These countries could really do a lot better if they followed common decency standards, like washing their hands or respecting wood 

India: 9.2

Iran: 12.4 (at this point its hard to call it anything other than a full blown wave 2)

Brazil: 12.6

Tier 4: Aggressive growth, still likely have not peaked in single day cases, and likely a week or two minimum from peak in deaths (however many of these countries are still slowing down)

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We feel very bad for the last Tier 4 country remaining on our list, the Mexico.  Its like that time Funkhauser became an orphan at 60 (RIP Funkhauser).

Mexico: 24.0

USA State Level MoLs

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Minnesota's progress last week has kind of stalled out over the weekend and into early this week and the Carolinas have seen some concerning trends, although I tend to put that to testing.  Maryland and now finally Virginia are slowing down a bit with Maryland approaching Tier 1 status as their cases appear to have plateaued and started to fall, even with some increased testing.  If we could see similar results in the mid-west that'd be great.  We've yet to see the predicted spike in Georgia now more than 2 weeks out from restrictions being eased, which is quite promising, but we'll continue to monitor that situation as it could take a bit longer.

MoL Deaths

Deaths ticked down ever so slightly today but virtually flat with last week.  However, important to remember how much progress we made over the previous ~10 days before yesterday, so the fact that we're stable for a couple days is not bad at all. 

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Canada

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Wow, great job!  Quebec dropping like a rock, great job 

@JBURGE

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The MoL would like to thank everyone for their contributions to this important work including @ET80 @acowboys62 @dtait93 @Dome @naptownskinsfan @kingseanjohn @Malfatron @Shady Slim @malagabears @daboyle250 @vikesfan89 @ramssuperbowl99 @sdrawkcab321 @Nazgul @kingseanjohn @TwoUpTwoDown @Xenos @Nex_Gen @FinneasGage @TVScout @seriously27 @N4L and the others who love us so much

We'd even like to thank @pwny @Glen and others for their critical attitude because of the attention it brings to the great work MoL is doing 

@TLO

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The message of this gif is that the MoL is signing out until tomorrow (although we reserve the right to **** on anyone who questions our authority on these matters)

Edited by mission27
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naptownskinsfan

naptownskinsfan

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, NateDawg said:

What I'm getting out of this thread is that if it's not scientifically educational, it is getting us through the corona by at least entertaining us.  I don't really have any specific, tangible takeaways, but I'm still here for it. 

Snoop Lion Yes GIF - Find & Share on GIPHY

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naptownskinsfan

naptownskinsfan

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Oh they definitely can, but it doesn’t exactly go quickly.

Sell it if you want, but who’s buying TP on the streets for retail?  

Some folks were selling it on my community facebook page a couple weeks ago.  

I have plenty of room in the guest bathroom closet for what I have.  My mother found out about Sams Club online and continued to have cases shipped to here when it was available.  We split a half case early on, and she got me another one.  So I probably have TP for the calendar year, it's just something I won't have to buy. 

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N4L

N4L

Posted
Posted
On 5/17/2020 at 1:46 PM, vikesfan89 said:

I've been seeing adds for facemasks on this site. They have the air release valves. Wouldn't those reduce the effectiveness of the masks?

my guess is that the air inside masks with proper medical grade filters (n95 for example, which is what I got my hands on recently) tend to capture the moisture released in your breath, so it can get a little uncomfortable after an hour+ of wearing them. 

Taking off the mask if your hands aren't clean could compromise the mask, so you can use the valve when you are outside away from people without having to take your entire mask off

this is just a guess, but otherwise you are right, it wouldn't make sense for this situation. Probably masks that were engineered not for a pandemic but for other reasons

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mikemike778

mikemike778

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, mistakey said:

Well someone said they invested their life savings. . . But its easier for those involved to say “ahhhh he was joking” without finding out if it was true or even contemplating that it could be true.  Or people in “tier one” countries think its ok to start relaxinf their social distancing when its not

If anyone seriously decided to re-evaluate their social distancing measures because an off-topic thread in a NFL draft website which put their country in tier one whilst referencing Taylor Swift with silly memes then maybe its time for Darwin's theory of evolution to start kicking in ...  

 

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