Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[BobbyPhil1781]

21 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Yes, and the same thing happened with Zika. Clinical trials were discontinued because the virus went away.

Ok that's what I thought too so the notion that this is happening isn't far-fetched the least bit. IIRC though, this one has been far more aggressive and deadly than the others so obviously not the same in that aspect.

[ramssuperbowl99]

2 minutes ago, JTagg7754 said:

Ok that's what I thought too so the notion that this is happening isn't far-fetched the least bit. IIRC though, this one has been far more aggressive and deadly than the others so obviously not the same in that aspect.

Yeah Sars is relevant genetically and structurally, but in terms of the genetic stability of the virus COVID is orders of magnitude better.

[mission27]

We are now at the lowest 7-day average cases since March 30th and lowest 7-day average deaths since April 1st 

Clearly though, a few parts of the country are seeing increases in cases... its good these areas are mostly seeing stable, slow rises and are not densely populated, but still concerning.  Arizona et. al. need to get their **** together please.

[mission27]

6/9/2020 MoL Scores:

Methodology and disclaimer: MoL score is a simple metric for measuring rate of spread of the novel coronavirus within communities.  The metric was developed by mission and TLO and has not been subjected to academic peer review.  The MoL looks at a trailing average of daily new cases and compares this to trailing active cases within the community.  These rankings do not represent the opinion of anyone other than mission and TLO and should not be taken as advice of any kind.  Please note while the numbers themselves are objective calculations, smugness and Taylor Swift lyrics may factor into our commentary and decisions on tiers.  The MoL reserves the right to make changes to this methodology at any time.  Please follow all relevant governmental and/or WHO/CDC guidance.  We will defeat this virus.

"Show me a gray sky, a rainy cab ride
Babe, don't threaten me with a good time"

- Taylor Swift

Today the MoL stands with the protesters 

Tier 1: Outbreak under control, safe to begin relaxing social distancing measures

Tier 1 countries are pretty,... pretty... pretty good

How to safely open up in Tier 1? Take a look at the MoL method for proper easing, otherwise known as the MoL public health cost benefit matrix.

New Zealand: 0.0 (perfect score still! they reported that the last known active case has recovered, meaning no COVID in New Zealand. if they get to the end of next week without any cases they'll officially have retired from the MoL!)

Spain: 0.1*

Netherlands: 0.4

Belgium: 0.4

UK: 0.6

Italy: 0.7

France: 0.9

Australia: 1.2

Ireland: 1.6

Canada: 1.7

USA: 1.9

Sweden: 1.9*

Czech Republic: 2.3

Japan: 2.9

Singapore: 3.0

Portugal: 3.0

 

Turkey: 3.0

Global: 3.0

Switzerland: 3.6

Hong Kong: 3.8

Germany: 3.8

China: 4.4

South Korea: 5.4 (they have completely stabilized at a low level of cases, although higher than before, back into tier 1)

Denmark: 5.7 (by MoL's judgement Denmark simply closes cases too quickly to ever dip below 5ish but we will let that slide)

Israel: 6.2 (this is a bump, but not a wave, low # of cases and 6 is close to steady state MoL)

 

Austria: 6.8

Tier 2: New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1

Tier 2 countries aren't  doing as well as Tier 1 countries, but eh, we'll give 'em a pass, why not!  Especially since Larry doesn't want to get fatwahed again.

Russia: 3.8

Philippines: 4.1

Tier 3: Countries in this group that are showing increased MoLs have the potential to go deep into the danger zones, but countries with falling MoLs may only be a couple of days from tier 2 status and may have already peaked in gross # of new cases

These countries could really do a lot better if they followed common decency standards, like washing their hands or respecting wood 

Brazil: 9.3

India: 9.8

Iran: 9.9

Tier 4: Aggressive growth, still likely have not peaked in single day cases, and likely a week or two minimum from peak in deaths (however many of these countries are still slowing down)

We feel very bad for the last Tier 4 country remaining on our list, the Mexico.  Its like that time Funkhauser became an orphan at 60 (RIP Funkhauser).

Mexico: 24.1

USA State Level MoLs

Note: MoL adjusted to remove the impact of the 5,014 probable deaths added on 6/5.  Consistent with treatment on Worldometer. 

MoL Deaths

ALL TIME LOW! ALL TIME LOW!

Canada

Great job @JBURGE

Quebec doing great.  Ontario making baby steps.  I hear these babies want to keep the border closed ANOTHER month, which is ridiculous, but who could expect anything less from Canadians tbh.

The MoL would like to thank everyone for their contributions to this important work including @ET80 @acowboys62 @dtait93 @Dome @naptownskinsfan @kingseanjohn @Malfatron @Shady Slim @malagabears @daboyle250 @vikesfan89 @ramssuperbowl99 @sdrawkcab321 @Nazgul @kingseanjohn  @TwoUpTwoDown @Xenos @Nex_Gen @FinneasGage @TVScout @seriously27 @N4L and the others who love us so much

We'd even like to thank @pwny @Glen and others for their critical attitude because of the attention it brings to the great work MoL is doing 

@TLO

The message of this gif is that the MoL is signing out until tomorrow (although we reserve the right to **** on anyone who questions our authority on these matters)

Edited June 10, 2020 by mission27

[naptownskinsfan]

California opening movie theaters and some other entertainment places on Friday.  Occupancy must be 25% or 100 people, whichever is less.  

https://comicbook.com/irl/news/california-movie-theaters-officially-reopening-date-quarter-capacity/?fbclid=IwAR03hx63Bb8W7cYGs1Q-lRlP1Zg4IeY2bi_zAxdDnzvN_tpo1mJp5txadGM

[Xenos]

9 hours ago, JTagg7754 said:

Well they just received more funding also:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-astrazeneca-idUSKBN23G0ZG?taid=5edfd4060d010d000127de20&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

Looks like people are going all in on this one. Luckily there's still quite a few others in current trials so I'm sure we have a winner, it's just now isolating and championing it as well as others that may prove positive as well.

Best thing that could happen is we have multiple successful vaccines from different companies.

[11sanchez11]

 

[WizeGuy]

8 hours ago, JTagg7754 said:

Ok that's what I thought too so the notion that this is happening isn't far-fetched the least bit. IIRC though, this one has been far more aggressive and deadly than the others so obviously not the same in that aspect.

It's safe to assume, but unfortunately- according to that study- the weakened strain is just starting to appear in some areas of Europe. The only place that had a decent amount is Sweden (20%) (I'd assume Italy, too, if it is indeed weakening), so it seems with this specific virus it's a long and bloody road to a weaker strain. That being said, areas (NYC, NJ, etc...) where the virus has ran through many bodies may be having a weaker strain beginning to emerge. Areas that are just getting hit with the virus will likely go through some turmoil. Let's hope a weaker strain from say NYC has been the source of the spread of the virus to the midlands. 

Unfortunately Coronaviruses don't mutate at a high rate, and COVID seems to replicate that, so this nasty little booger is going to have to go through many bodies in many areas before a weaker strain is prevalent around the world. This is in my non-expert opinion, of course. 

 

*This is assuming that the virus is weakening, which isn't proven yet, but still an interesting topic of discussion*

[seriously27]

5 hours ago, 11sanchez11 said:

 

I'd like to find more info on what they considered hand washing and did they also combine that with cleaning of the ship as well. Hand washing definitely wouldn't help if you are on a ship with a bunch of infected people and you don't clean the areas all the time. You are going to clean your hands and immediately infect them again. That's pretty common sense. However if you go to the supermarket and don't touch your face, then clean your hands as soon as you get home, then that should be very effective. 

[WizeGuy]

Am I crazy for thinking Arizona should shutdown bars and casinos until they get their numbers under control? Or at the very least make masks a requirement for employees? I'm having a debate with someone on a hockey forum (One of you found my alter ego!) who tells me this is all part of the plan. That the state assumed surges like this would happen, and they have a surge plan in place to withstand the outbreak. I'm just a bit confused that the plan is to prepare for a surge, but completely ignore the spread. I mean- the positive case% has been increasing for the past 2-3 weeks. Perhaps I'm being to pessimistic, but with severe symptoms taking 8-12 days to progress- it may be wise to forecast and react to the spread rather than just embracing it. 

[MWil23]

IMO, we are going to see a major 2nd surge of this if we don't start opening more up. We've flattened the curve in most places, and we should be at a point where we are reintroducing things into our immune systems. Early reports are that this has a 6-8 month "immune" factor that will run it's course (similar to the flu/cold) where you can't get it a second time, but if we quarantine too long, then we could be looking at a really bad November through February of 2021.

TBH, if we don't see major spikes in the next 10-14 days after everything going on currently, then we need to open everything back up in most places, because the evidence is there to support and warrant opening things back up.

JMHO

[BobbyPhil1781]

Good News Guy is back again! Get away doomer and gloomer!

"Final testing stage for potential coronavirus vaccine set to begin in July: report"

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/501999-final-testing-stage-for-coronavirus-vaccine-could-begin-in-july-report

"John Mascola, the director of the vaccine research center at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told the Journal that the trials will involve about 30,000 people at more than 50 sites, which will mostly be within the U.S. "

Phase 3 of the AZ/Oxford vaccine is set to begin in August according to this report. Johnson and Johnson apparently has one set to begin it's final phases in September. A lot of promise in Vaccineland. 

[mission27]

11 hours ago, mission27 said:

We are now at the lowest 7-day average cases since March 30th and lowest 7-day average deaths since April 1st 

Clearly though, a few parts of the country are seeing increases in cases... its good these areas are mostly seeing stable, slow rises and are not densely populated, but still concerning.  Arizona et. al. need to get their **** together please.

Its important to note, in addition to these areas where things are getting a bit worse...

The large metros and initial hot spots are all doing MUCH better (New York, Detroit, New Orleans, Seattle), the next wave of metros is doing better as well (Boston, Chicago), and even the places that were trouble spots as recently as a week or two ago are doing much better (DC area primarily @naptownskinsfan)

Which is why the overall numbers continue to get better even though there are isolated problems in Arizona, North Carolina, potentially Florida, Texas, and California though I look at the last 3 more so as big population states catching up

The real test over the next few weeks will be two-fold:

1. How much of a rebound if any do we see in places like New York and Boston as they open up?  On the one hand you'd expect a rebound and we've seen small rebounds in many places that have opened up.  But some of the hardest hit areas that opened up, like hot spots in Italy and Spain, didn't see a rebound and cases continued to drop.

2. Do any of the new problem areas start to experience true exponential growth and become hot spots?  That strikes me as highly unlikely but we'll see. 

[BobbyPhil1781]

33 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

IMO, we are going to see a major 2nd surge of this if we don't start opening more up. We've flattened the curve in most places, and we should be at a point where we are reintroducing things into our immune systems. Early reports are that this has a 6-8 month "immune" factor that will run it's course (similar to the flu/cold) where you can't get it a second time, but if we quarantine too long, then we could be looking at a really bad November through February of 2021.

TBH, if we don't see major spikes in the next 10-14 days after everything going on currently, then we need to open everything back up in most places, because the evidence is there to support and warrant opening things back up.

JMHO

I don't disagree w/ this, overall. I personally have been giving this virus a ton of respect and not doing a damn thing. I bite my nails though, and have been since I was 4, so my immune system is rock solid lol.

I want to kinda disagree w/ your second statement though. I think we're going to see a spike and that's inevitable. This thing has shown propensity to affect people who use lung capacity in excess. This is supported by the fact that churches, especially choirs, are hard hit. Think of all of the people out there yelling and screaming in the streets of major cities. A spike is, IMO, inevitable. What I'm going to be looking for is if there's a massive spike in hospital admissions. W/ the rumors going around that this thing might be getting weaker, that will be a good indication if it is or it isn't.

Edited June 10, 2020 by JTagg7754

[MWil23]

Just now, JTagg7754 said:

I don't disagree w/ this. I personally have been giving this virus a ton of respect and not doing a damn thing. I bite my nails though, and have been since I was 4, so my immune system is rock solid lol.

I want to kinda disagree w/ your second statement though. I think we're going to see a spike and that's inevitable. This thing has shown propensity to affect people who use lung capacity in excess. This is supported by the fact that churches, especially choirs, are hard hit. Think of all of the people out there yelling and screaming in the streets of major cities. A spike is, IMO, inevitable. What I'm going to be looking for is if there's a massive spike in hospital admissions. W/ the rumors going around that this thing might be getting weaker, that will be a good indication if it is or it isn't.

Reminder though, the entire premise of my second statement was "If we don't see a major spike in the next 10-14 days".