Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[mission27]

4/20/2020 MoL Scores:

Methodology and disclaimer: MoL score is a simple metric for measuring rate of spread of the novel coronavirus within communities.  The metric was developed by mission and TLO and has not been subjected to academic peer review.  The MoL looks at a trailing average of daily new cases and compares this to trailing active cases within the community.  These rankings do not represent the opinion of anyone other than mission and TLO and should not be taken as advice of any kind.  Please note while the numbers themselves are objective calculations, smugness and Taylor Swift lyrics may factor into our commentary and decisions on tiers.  The MoL reserves the right to make changes to this methodology at any time.  Please follow all relevant governmental and/or WHO/CDC guidance.  We will defeat this virus.

"'They'd say I hustled
Put in the work
They wouldn't shake their heads
And question how much of this I deserve"

- Taylor Swift

Today for 4/20 the MoL have taken a bunch of edibles for today's MoL

Tier 1: Outbreak under control, safe to begin relaxing social distancing measures

Hong Kong: 0.3 (another all-time low for Hong Kong, TLO's post from last week also looking quite prescient)

On 4/13/2020 at 12:24 AM, TLO said:

Hong Kong: 2.0 (tbh this is a solid number. Hopefully the protesters can get back to work)

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/20/asia/hong-kong-protests-coronavirus-intl-hnk/index.html

South Korea: 0.6 (South Korea gets an all-time low as well, only 83 cases over the past 5 days which is really something else)

Australia: 1.3 (great job Shady, only 13 cases today, a new low!)

Austria: 1.5

Czech Republic: 2.3

Israel: 2.5 (Israel breaks into Tier 1, they don't seem to have been hurt by Passover, have a new government, now talking about opening back up, good times in Israel) 

Switzerland: 3.3

Tier 2: New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1

Italy: 3.0 (a great day for Italy as active cases fall for the first time, they've hit their apex, a new low for new cases for some time, they are close to tier 1)

Portugal: 3.2

Philippines: 4.2 (#seasonality)

Netherlands: 4.2

Germany: 4.2

Spain: 4.3 (after being stuck between 5-6 for over a week Spain finally sees a big drop with their lowest new case number in a long, long time @malagabears @vikesfan89)

Denmark: 4.6

USA: 5.1 (another day, another low, some really great prioress the last few days) 

Ireland: 5.2 (biggg drop the last few days, good for them)

Sweden: 5.5

Global: 5.5 (another drop in the global numbers, down a full point in the past week despite impact of Russia and other places slowing a bit) 

Belgium: 5.8

UK: 6.2

France: 6.2 (they are yet again close to another major drop, we'll see how it goes, they could drop a huge case number on us tomorrow)

Japan: 6.6 (while Japan has cases, they seem to have avoided become a major hot spot, masks?)

Iran: 6.6* (consistently bs numbers, tbh)

Turkey: 6.9

China: 7.3 (China stabilizing and even dropping a bit the last few days, do we trust #s?)

Canada: 9.2 (Canada continues to lag a bit, I do think the UK would be closer to these numbers if they were reporting correctly, but Canada looks about a week behind the US)

Tier 3: Countries in this group that are showing increased MoLs have the potential to go deep into the danger zones, but countries with falling MoLs may only be a couple of days from tier 2 status and may have already peaked in gross # of new cases

Brazil: 11.1

India: 11.8

Mexico: 20.0

Tier 4: Aggressive growth, still likely have not peaked in single day cases, and likely a week or two minimum from peak in deaths (however many of these countries are still slowing down)

Russia: 20.3 (some signs of things slowing, like with China do you believe the #s?)

USA State Level MoLs

State by state numbers today were quite good in most cases.  Iowa and North Dakota are developing little clusters, although small overall numbers, even as we see big improvement in South Dakota in the last few days.  California numbers didnt account for some late breaking LA cases that may push MoL up tomorrow.  NY is getting damn close to Tier 1 and Coumo is rightfully talking about opening (slowly).

The MoL would like to thank everyone for their contributions to this important work including @ET80 @acowboys62 @dtait93 @Dome @naptownskinsfan @kingseanjohn @Malfatron @Shady Slim @malagabears @daboyle250 @vikesfan89 @ramssuperbowl99 @sdrawkcab321 @Nazgul @kingseanjohn @mistakey @TwoUpTwoDown @Xenos @Nex_Gen @FinneasGage and the others who love us so much

We'd even like to thank @pwny @Glen and others for their critical attitude because of the attention it brings to the great work MoL is doing 

@TLO

[Xenos]

I wonder if this is somehow related:

https://nypost.com/2020/04/20/kentucky-sees-highest-spike-in-coronavirus-cases-after-protests/?fbclid=IwAR2TmD21h4bqdtog0bAy8miQWvIuNCqQ82362l7s_58lxFFPXxbBMlOQCHc

[kingseanjohn]

Good luck Georgians! It looks like you’ve been chosen to be the canary.

Kemp said specifically that fitness centers, bowling alleys, body art studios, barbers, hair and nail salons, and massage therapy businesses can reopen as early Friday, April 24. Theaters and restaurants will be allowed to open on Monday, April 27, while bars and night clubs will remain closed for now.

Source

[mission27]

2 hours ago, Xenos said:

I posted this in the earlier pages but how much of what Sweden is doing can be applied to us? Some of their advantages include:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-19/sweden-says-controversial-covid-19-strategy-is-proving-effective

1) Better healthcare system

2) More than half Swedish households are single person, meaning better social distancing

3) Built for WFH

I see a lot of people saying Sweden (or whoever) has a "better" healthcare system than the US.  In availability and affordability, sure.  But the US healthcare system has a lot of advantages, including advantages like most per capita ICU beds and ventilators that matter a lot here. 

At the end of the day Sweden may have been well position to pull this off but it does show an alternative path.

[MightyMouse07]

So what you’re all saying is... Sweden planted this virus to assert its dominance. 

[naptownskinsfan]

12 hours ago, bigbadbuff said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/04/19/stimulus-payments-free-rent/

I'll take the $2000 a month for now.  That would allow me to keep my LOA at work to keep my high risk family members safe.  

[naptownskinsfan]

8 hours ago, big_palooka said:

I am in Atlanta......  here. we. go:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/georgia-gov-brian-kemp-allows-gyms-salons-and-bowling-alleys-to-reopen-friday-as-coronavirus-cases-climb

Theaters, restaurants allowed Monday the 27th. Not sure how I feel about all this.

Too soon for that IMO.  Plenty of eyes are going to be on Georgia to see how they do with this though.  

[naptownskinsfan]

4 hours ago, rob_shadows said:

So I had no idea just how encompassing the pandemic relief unemployment package is...

My cousin worked UNDER THE TABLE as a dishwasher, he worked about 20ish hours a week making like 10 bucks an hour...

... He just found out that even though he was under the table he can get unemployment now and will get 733 a week.

How the hell does that even work? You can't prove an under the table job so couldn't anyone apply and get it?

That is exactly how it works.  Wouldn't surprise me if some people are working under the table and collecting unemployment that way.  

[naptownskinsfan]

4 hours ago, rob_shadows said:

I didn't see the proposal to give up to 25,000 in hazard pay to all "essential" workers... Another one I doubt actually passes but more proposals means more of a chance one will actually pass and give me more money so I'm all for it... Keep proposing stuff!

My boss is getting ready to roll out hazard pay to everyone.  I think it will convince some of the team on leave to consider coming back to work.  With the rate people are dropping out, and if it continues for another two weeks, he's going to have to start hiring people to keep up with things.  

I'm mixed on it.  My problem when my location returns is that we're in a busy shopping mall right by three entrances.  I'll help open the store but with my family the ages they are, this is going to be a really tough decision. 

[naptownskinsfan]

4 hours ago, Xenos said:

I've seen people posting this piece at several places. Any thoughts?

https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-israeli-prof-claims-simple-stats-show-virus-plays-itself-out-after-70-days/

 

It's interesting for sure, but I have my doubts on it.  I imagine it's gaining traction because it's hope that this is all a small blip on the radar, and I don't think that's the case.  I've also heard speculation on this could fit into similar patterns to the flu and being seasonal, but that was earlier speculation. 

We do need to get people back to working at some point in the early summer though, if things continue to progress the way they are.  

[WizeGuy]

Scientists Are Using The Measles Vaccine to Develop a 'Trojan Horse' Against COVID-19

 

Researchers are attempting to modify the measles vaccine to create vaccination against COVID-19. It would expedite the process if successful.

Edited April 21, 2020 by WizeGuy

[acowboys62]

11 hours ago, Heimdallr said:

People that feel the need to 'protest' after a few weeks of being at home are really in for a rude awakening. This ain't going anywhere without a vaccine, and I don't think most people realize that we have never succeeded in creating a vaccine for a coronavirus. Not MERS, not SARS.

So they don’t want to be locked in their houses forever? Isn’t that the point? 

[acowboys62]

10 hours ago, rob_shadows said:

I didn't see the proposal to give up to 25,000 in hazard pay to all "essential" workers... Another one I doubt actually passes but more proposals means more of a chance one will actually pass and give me more money so I'm all for it... Keep proposing stuff!

I hope they get something substantial, grocery, delivery, medical, etc. 

[theJ]

11 hours ago, Heimdallr said:

People that feel the need to 'protest' after a few weeks of being at home are really in for a rude awakening. This ain't going anywhere without a vaccine, and I don't think most people realize that we have never succeeded in creating a vaccine for a coronavirus. Not MERS, not SARS.

I feel it's the opposite.  Those who wish things would stay closed until we find a vaccine are in for a rude awaking.  As in, things are going to be opening back up throughout May.  They've already started to lay out the groundwork of a plan, and we're seeing it in some select locations.

It won't be a grand re-opening of everything, all at once.  And some activities of the past may be a little more restricted for some time.  But you're going to see some stuff re-open very soon, because the government knows they can't keep printing money indefinitely, and people need to provide for their families eventually.

[acowboys62]

7 hours ago, kingseanjohn said:

Good luck Georgians! It looks like you’ve been chosen to be the canary.

 

 

Source

I’m curious to see how the numbers get impacted after this and possibly more curious to see how people respond to this.

i didn’t frequent any places like this pre-quarantine but I wonder how many people will even bother with a movie theater (aren’t most productions delayed?). Bowling alleys can probably pull it off but you’d still be in close contact with your specific group, but I feel like separate groups by lanes and it should not be a hard business to sanitize (please burn all of the shoes). 
 

I would assume the rest of the businesses limit capacity / hours and have mask guidelines?