Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[theJ]

1 hour ago, MWil23 said:

Effective by May 12, per Governor DeWine's orders, all business employees and consumers must wear facial coverings, such as grocery stores, retail, etc. All other restaurants/haircuts/etc. will remain closed through May 15, and likely June 1.

So my brother's wedding on May 16th still has a chance?

Also, that's a good decision.  There's probably only 50% compliance on suggested facial coverings when i go to the grocery store right now.  They help.  People need to wear them and stop worrying about how stupid they make you look.

[theJ]

39 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

X2 checking in. I’m no longer “All In” on this, and I’m probably in the top 10% on rational thinking in our nation. 

I've kind of forgotten about the whole thing, tbh.  I check in on this thread throughout the day during the week, but otherwise i only go out once per week for groceries.  Life has become this daily grind of keeping my wife from going suicidal from being locked up, keeping the kids from killing each other, and trying to find enough time to work in the shop.

It all just feels normal at this point.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

Just now, theJ said:

I've kind of forgotten about the whole thing, tbh.  I check in on this thread throughout the day during the week, but otherwise i only go out once per week for groceries.  Life has become this daily grind of keeping my wife from going suicidal from being locked up, keeping the kids from killing each other, and trying to find enough time to work in the shop.

It all just feels normal at this point.

Give it a week and you can start checking on me everyday too.

[ramssuperbowl99]

49 minutes ago, mistakey said:

just need another 110k to die!

It's better relative to 50k deaths and 5% of the population infected.

[mission27]

1 hour ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

If these tests are accurate and precise enough that we really had 25% of NYC infected, that's tremendous news for the long term. I'm skeptical without knowing more about the validation of the tests themselves, but if we are already at 25% infected herd immunity is going to win sooner rather than later.

Yep

Take a look at this article https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/health/coronavirus-antibody-tests.html?referringSource=articleShare

Takeaway seems to be:

1. the antibody tests probably aren't reliable enough at this point to say for sure if someone did or did not have it (another reason I would stay away from passports personally) 

2. they are probably pretty reliable on a larger scale populate study though and they tend to have more false negatives than false positives. if the tests are saying 25% have been infected, its probably like 27% or 28%

Either way unless these tests are totally f'd CFR is way lower than initially thought, R0 must be extremely high, and herd immunity may not be the worst strategy for a whole lot of reasons (if done in a controlled way that at least tries to avoid massive spikes in cases like we saw in NYC in March)

[mission27]

1 minute ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

It's better relative to 50k deaths and 5% of the population infected.

I do think its probably closer to 5% of the US population tbh.  NYC is obviously the hardest hit area by far.  The MoL will update our chart, but places like California are in the 4-5% range and rurals areas probably lower.

Its still great news that CFR is what the MoL has been saying all along and that we are further along in the march to herd immunity in our biggest urban setting.

[mission27]

1 hour ago, MWil23 said:

X2 checking in. I’m no longer “All In” on this, and I’m probably in the top 10% on rational thinking in our nation. 

+ the MoL tbh

[Malfatron]

i am all in for myself, but i get why people dont like it

they need to pay for stuff

[mission27]

On the flip side of the herd immunity argument very good news from Oxford on their vaccine, I think they are going to get there first & get there much faster than people are expecting 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/27/world/europe/coronavirus-vaccine-update-oxford.html

This probably wont get here in time to prevent a second major wave next winter, but if we have something we can use to inoculate health care workers it makes things a lot better for everyone

[mistakey]

1 hour ago, theJ said:

I've kind of forgotten about the whole thing, tbh.  I check in on this thread throughout the day during the week, but otherwise i only go out once per week for groceries.  Life has become this daily grind of keeping my wife from going suicidal from being locked up, keeping the kids from killing each other, and trying to find enough time to work in the shop.

It all just feels normal at this point.

bro i feels u

[WizeGuy]

16 minutes ago, mission27 said:

On the flip side of the herd immunity argument very good news from Oxford on their vaccine, I think they are going to get there first & get there much faster than people are expecting 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/27/world/europe/coronavirus-vaccine-update-oxford.html

This probably wont get here in time to prevent a second major wave next winter, but if we have something we can use to inoculate health care workers it makes things a lot better for everyone

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/india-serum-institute-millions-oxford-university-vaccine-before-approval-2020-4%3famp

 

40 million a month starting in Sept. Give it to the most needy first. October will be tough, but better treatment and possibly vaccinating some of the elderly + immunity gained from prior infections ( hopefully) may= a weaker 2nd wave.

[Shanedorf]

Several of the pharma companies in India are currently under an export embargo due to failing FDA inspections and receiving Warning Letters
In some cases, the products they manufactured were of such poor quality that they flew executives to the US to buy the legitimate drugs and bring them back home. Then when they faced a US FDA inspection, they'd spike the sample with the US version of the drug so they could pass.

I don't know anything about the specifics of this company,  so its not fair to implicate them -  but I wouldn't be lining up for their vaccine either.

https://www.businesstoday.in/sectors/pharma/usfda-slaps-19-warning-letters-to-indian-pharma-firms-in-2019-highest-in-4-years/story/392859.html

If the FDA identifies problems at your plant, you get a "483" letter which tells you all the areas where you came up short
If your response isn't satisfactory and you don't resolve the problems - then you get the Warning Letter. So the report above only lists the ones where their response was lousy enough to warrant the next level.

For context purposes, many firms get a 483, its tough to pass an inspection and its a joint effort to fix problems and to improve.
But if you don't handle it properly, then things get much tougher going forward,  as it should

[mission27]

Today's MoLs are looking pretty sexy, like the MoL themselves @TLO

[mission27]

4/27/2020 MoL Scores:

Methodology and disclaimer: MoL score is a simple metric for measuring rate of spread of the novel coronavirus within communities.  The metric was developed by mission and TLO and has not been subjected to academic peer review.  The MoL looks at a trailing average of daily new cases and compares this to trailing active cases within the community.  These rankings do not represent the opinion of anyone other than mission and TLO and should not be taken as advice of any kind.  Please note while the numbers themselves are objective calculations, smugness and Taylor Swift lyrics may factor into our commentary and decisions on tiers.  The MoL reserves the right to make changes to this methodology at any time.  Please follow all relevant governmental and/or WHO/CDC guidance.  We will defeat this virus.

"Seems like there's always
Someone who disapproves,
They'll judge it like they know about me and you,
And the verdict comes from those with nothing else to do,
The jury's out,
And my choice is you @TLO."

- Taylor Swift

mission makes his return today to smugly post the 27th of the month and be smug about Singapore although I know all of you miss TLO's pretty face

Tier 1: Outbreak under control, safe to begin relaxing social distancing measures

Hong Kong: 0.2 (a new all-time low record in the MoL rankings for Hong Kong, could they go for a PERFECT score??)

South Korea: 0.3 

China: 0.8 (a new all-time low for China, back below the 1.2 they posted in the first MoLs on March 30th)

Australia: 0.9

Czech Republic: 1.3

Portugal: 2.0

France: 2.1

Netherlands: 2.2

Italy: 2.2 (Italy's lowest cases since March 10th at below 2k)

Austria: 2.3

Israel: 2.3 (Israel now firmly in Tier 1, Passover bump never materialized thankfully)

Switzerland: 2.6

Tier 2: New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1

Turkey: 3.4

Germany: 3.5

Belgium: 3.7

Philippines: 3.8

UK: 4.1 

Spain: 4.2

Sweden: 4.3 (Sweden continues to trend down along with a number of other countries tbh)

Japan: 4.3

USA: 4.3 (new all-time low for USA, we're still tracking about two weeks behind Italy)

Global: 4.5 (global MoL at their best level yet)

Iran: 6.3* (bs numbers but below 1k cases)

Denmark: 6.4

Canada: 6.9 (after a two week plateau in MoL, Canada back on the way down)

Ireland: 8.9

Singapore: 9.3 (this makes the MoL quite smug, tbhwy)

India: 9.9

Tier 3: Countries in this group that are showing increased MoLs have the potential to go deep into the danger zones, but countries with falling MoLs may only be a couple of days from tier 2 status and may have already peaked in gross # of new cases

Russia: 11.0 (Russia's done a decent job of stemming the tide, once they woke up to this, in typical Russian fashion)

Brazil: 19.1

Tier 4: Aggressive growth, still likely have not peaked in single day cases, and likely a week or two minimum from peak in deaths (however many of these countries are still slowing down)

Mexico: 23.0 (the Mexico is struggling mightily, due to AMLO's unhinged smugness early on, but seasonality will save them eventually) 

USA State Level MoLs

Very strong numbers across the board at least in the smug states.  Its unfortunate that some of the states re-opening still have slightly elevated MoLs, although cases are still quite low there, so we'll see if they rise.

The MoL would like to thank everyone for their contributions to this important work including @ET80 @acowboys62 @dtait93 @Dome @naptownskinsfan @kingseanjohn @Malfatron @Shady Slim @malagabears @daboyle250 @vikesfan89 @ramssuperbowl99 @sdrawkcab321 @Nazgul @kingseanjohn @mistakey @TwoUpTwoDown @Xenos @Nex_Gen @FinneasGage and the others who love us so much

We'd even like to thank @pwny @Glen and others for their critical attitude because of the attention it brings to the great work MoL is doing 

@TLO

[diehardlionfan]

10 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

It's really not. The rationale as to why cards are being issued is absolutely critical.

The intent here is to get people back to their lives faster, and the manifestation of the law would obviously have to include checks and balances which wouldn't have been present historically because the intention here is entirely different. If you can't see how that is different from Nazis using paperwork to start a genocide, then there's really no point in discussing it any more.

 

Why do you even bring genocide up? I’m against the identification or segregation of people for any reason. I simply referenced the signs leading up to a war. 

There are still leper colonies in the world.

 Refusing to allow citizens freedom on a potentially permanent basis for fear of infection is simply a non starter regardless of justification.