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49 minutes ago, 49ersfan said:

I read this article. Its not peer reviewed, but it MAY have been around as early as August last year...

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/satellite-images-of-wuhan-may-suggest-coronavirus-was-spreading-as-early-as-august-1.4975822

In October 2019 i was knocked out for 2 weeks with all the symptoms, chills/fever/fatigue/sore throat, as well as a really persistent and extremely uncomfortable cough that didn't respond to medicine at all. I mean i get sick once or twice a year on average, couple of days, but i hadn't gotten that sick for that long in maybe 5 years. 

I know a lot of my coworkers were very sick in December as well...it'll be interesting to see how many people have actually had it once the antibody tests are more available

We had the same experience in October/November here in San Diego. My charming bride was terribly sick for 6 weeks with an unknown respiratory invader. Chills, fever, fatigue, incessant and relentless coughing..eventually coughing up some blood. On a couple of days, she said she wished she were dead
The MDs said it could be pleurisy, which is an infection deep in your lungs and the most damning evidence is that she spent the day with a friend who was visiting from China... and got sick about a week later.

We're going to take the antibody tests soon to see if we were exposed last fall. The weird part is that none of the rest of us got sick, so its all very confusing. But I would not be the least bit surprised if some form of the virus was around before December 2019

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1 hour ago, 49ersfan said:

I read this article. Its not peer reviewed, but it MAY have been around as early as August last year...

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/satellite-images-of-wuhan-may-suggest-coronavirus-was-spreading-as-early-as-august-1.4975822

In October 2019 i was knocked out for 2 weeks with all the symptoms, chills/fever/fatigue/sore throat, as well as a really persistent and extremely uncomfortable cough that didn't respond to medicine at all. I mean i get sick once or twice a year on average, couple of days, but i hadn't gotten that sick for that long in maybe 5 years. 

I know a lot of my coworkers were very sick in December as well...it'll be interesting to see how many people have actually had it once the antibody tests are more available

I was the sickest I've ever been in my life in mid/late September. I've never had a fever for more than a couple/few days before, but had a fever for over a week, went away for a day or two, and then came back again for almost a week. Went to dr twice, and all tests (strep, etc.) came back negative. I also had a heart arrhythmia diagnosed at this point (never had one before) and had to wear the halter. Maybe I should go get an antibody test too! 

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36 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

We had the same experience in October/November here in San Diego. My charming bride was terribly sick for 6 weeks with an unknown respiratory invader. Chills, fever, fatigue, incessant and relentless coughing..eventually coughing up some blood. On a couple of days, she said she wished she were dead
The MDs said it could be pleurisy, which is an infection deep in your lungs and the most damning evidence is that she spent the day with a friend who was visiting from China... and got sick about a week later.

We're going to take the antibody tests soon to see if we were exposed last fall. The weird part is that none of the rest of us got sick, so its all very confusing. But I would not be the least bit surprised if some form of the virus was around before December 2019

Just saw your post, mine was similar. I had a persistent cough for probably close to 6 weeks as well. No one else around me got sick either though. I diagnosed myself with about 30 different things from googling at the time ha

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1 hour ago, 49ersfan said:

I read this article. Its not peer reviewed, but it MAY have been around as early as August last year...

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/satellite-images-of-wuhan-may-suggest-coronavirus-was-spreading-as-early-as-august-1.4975822

In October 2019 i was knocked out for 2 weeks with all the symptoms, chills/fever/fatigue/sore throat, as well as a really persistent and extremely uncomfortable cough that didn't respond to medicine at all. I mean i get sick once or twice a year on average, couple of days, but i hadn't gotten that sick for that long in maybe 5 years. 

I know a lot of my coworkers were very sick in December as well...it'll be interesting to see how many people have actually had it once the antibody tests are more available

That's wild. I never get sick but my wife had something around the Superb Owl that mimicked this as well and I never got a damn thing. I bite my nails though so I'm guessing I have a fairly strong immune system lol. I'm really starting to feel this overly active "flu season" was really just the rona. Maybe if it was around this long ago, herd immunity will take over and we can get at least get one form of football and have some normalcy by year's end. 

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Not sure what the governors of Texas and Nebraska are doing with regards to mask. They won’t even let the local municipals mandate the wearing of masks. And Rickett is threatening to hold funding from anyone that does.

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2 hours ago, Xenos said:

Not sure what the governors of Texas and Nebraska are doing with regards to mask. They won’t even let the local municipals mandate the wearing of masks. And Rickett is threatening to hold funding from anyone that does.

They are morons

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11 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

We had the same experience in October/November here in San Diego. My charming bride was terribly sick for 6 weeks with an unknown respiratory invader. Chills, fever, fatigue, incessant and relentless coughing..eventually coughing up some blood. On a couple of days, she said she wished she were dead
The MDs said it could be pleurisy, which is an infection deep in your lungs and the most damning evidence is that she spent the day with a friend who was visiting from China... and got sick about a week later.

We're going to take the antibody tests soon to see if we were exposed last fall. The weird part is that none of the rest of us got sick, so its all very confusing. But I would not be the least bit surprised if some form of the virus was around before December 2019

If you take care of your own health and sanitization, you might not get sick.  We have had a few people at work get it, and no one else has gotten sick, so masks and frequent hand-washing and sanitization do work.  

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10 hours ago, JTagg7754 said:

That's wild. I never get sick but my wife had something around the Superb Owl that mimicked this as well and I never got a damn thing. I bite my nails though so I'm guessing I have a fairly strong immune system lol. I'm really starting to feel this overly active "flu season" was really just the rona. Maybe if it was around this long ago, herd immunity will take over and we can get at least get one form of football and have some normalcy by year's end. 

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6/19/2020 MoL Scores:

Methodology and disclaimer: MoL score is a simple metric for measuring rate of spread of the novel coronavirus within communities.  The metric was developed by mission and TLO and has not been subjected to academic peer review.  The MoL looks at a trailing average of daily new cases and compares this to trailing active cases within the community.  These rankings do not represent the opinion of anyone other than mission and TLO and should not be taken as advice of any kind.  Please note while the numbers themselves are objective calculations, smugness and Taylor Swift lyrics may factor into our commentary and decisions on tiers.  The MoL reserves the right to make changes to this methodology at any time.  Please follow all relevant governmental and/or WHO/CDC guidance.  We will defeat this virus.

"I don't wanna look at anything else now that I saw you"

- Taylor Swift

WEAR A MASK

Tier 1: Outbreak under control, safe to begin relaxing social distancing measures

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Tier 1 countries are pretty,... pretty... pretty good

How to safely open up in Tier 1? Take a look at the MoL method for proper easing, otherwise known as the MoL public health cost benefit matrix.

New Zealand: NA 

Spain: 0.1*

Belgium: 0.3

Netherlands: 0.3

UK: 0.4

France: 0.8

Italy: 1.1

Canada: 1.2

Sweden: 1.4*

Ireland: 2.0

USA: 2.1

Singapore: 2.1

Portugal: 2.6

Czech Republic: 2.8

Philippines: 2.9

Global: 3.1

South Korea: 4.1

Australia: 4.2

Hong Kong: 6.0

Japan: 6.4

Turkey: 6.7

Israel: 6.9

Austria: 7.3

Switzerland: 7.6

Denmark: 8.1

Germany: 8.6

Tier 2: New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1

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Tier 2 countries aren't  doing as well as Tier 1 countries, but eh, we'll give 'em a pass, why not!  Especially since Larry doesn't want to get fatwahed again.

Russia: 3.5

Tier 3: Countries in this group that are showing increased MoLs have the potential to go deep into the danger zones, but countries with falling MoLs may only be a couple of days from tier 2 status and may have already peaked in gross # of new cases

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These countries could really do a lot better if they followed common decency standards, like washing their hands or respecting wood 

Brazil: 7.6

India: 8.4

Iran: 8.7

Tier 4: Aggressive growth, still likely have not peaked in single day cases, and likely a week or two minimum from peak in deaths (however many of these countries are still slowing down)

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We feel very bad for the last Tier 4 country remaining on our list, the Mexico.  Its like that time Funkhauser became an orphan at 60 (RIP Funkhauser).

Mexico: 22.5

China: 57.4

USA State Level MoLs

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MoL Deaths

Another all time low

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Canada

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Hey @JBURGE S is really dragging you guys down!

MoL.png

The MoL would like to thank everyone for their contributions to this important work including @ET80 @acowboys62 @dtait93 @Dome @naptownskinsfan @kingseanjohn @Malfatron @Shady Slim @malagabears @daboyle250 @vikesfan89 @ramssuperbowl99 @sdrawkcab321 @Nazgul @kingseanjohn  @TwoUpTwoDown @Xenos @Nex_Gen @FinneasGage @TVScout @seriously27 @N4L and the others who love us so much

We'd even like to thank @pwny @Glen and others for their critical attitude because of the attention it brings to the great work MoL is doing 

@TLO

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The message of this gif is that the MoL is signing out until tomorrow (although we reserve the right to **** on anyone who questions our authority on these matters)

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13 hours ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Yeah I don’t think they’re necessary for walking around the neighborhood, hiking at parks, etc.  Just keep your distance and you’re fine.

i wish they would be mandated for all indoor activities though other than dining.

Dining inside is what gets me.  At some point you have to take it off to eat.  So having these places filled at 50% inside makes no sense to me.  25% sounds a whole lot more reasonable.  

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13 hours ago, JTagg7754 said:

And we shouldn't be wearing masks out in the open anyway. We still need to prep our bodies for annual sicknesses anyway or it's gonna be a hell of a flu season (this is right to suggest, correct??). This last season was terribly bad also which leads me to believe rona was here already. Just read an article about findings in Italy that suggest the virus was present in the fall of last year around the country. 

I don't know any true epidemologists, but through my church and work, I know a good number of doctors and while they are supportive of masks short term to get us back to normal, they believe it will trash our immune system sooner rather than later.  A lot of our immune system to viruses and colds relates to us getting exposed to it in some way or another.  This is ultimately my concern with masks, as well as moisture and humidity in the summer months making a mask not last nearly as long. 

I just did a brief Google search and looked at the first page and didn't see much on this, so I would be interested to see if anyone can find any points of discussion one way or another. 

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1 hour ago, mission27 said:

They are morons

Yeah they are. I know that they are trying to cater to their base. But you can also do that without preventing the local counties and cities from doing the right thing. It’s a win win IMO. Instead they are risking the health of a lot of people. Not to mention the economic factor.

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6 hours ago, naptownskinsfan said:

25% sounds a whole lot more reasonable.  

It's not profitable and at that point the restaurant might be better off closed 

2.1 mol for the us is an absolute joke. That implies we are doing well. Sure, it's a large country, but a huge spike in several metropolitan areas like we are experiencing should be considered. The potential for exponential growth is there. Your non forward predicting model doesn't account for population density and is not predictive in any way. Therefore, it's a flawed metric and does very little to actually accurately articulate corona data. Vis-à-vis it's a bad metric and should be be put out to pasture 

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