Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

28 minutes ago, acowboys62 said:

Gun ranges closed, gun sales (until the lawsuits were filed) were not happening.  More so the Governor of NJ made a very clear distinction between protests of him vs the current situation.  100% the current situation is more important, but I don't think the 1st amendment deals in level of importance.  
 

ranges and stores were opened the whole time here and, like you said, once challenged conceded the right.

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What argument exactly?  Who are you asking to be honest?  I genuinely cannot tell if you are trying to backhandedly say something to me or just talking in general. 
 

not directed at you or anyone else in particular, but I’m pretty sure you get my point.

Quote

Yes, it is elective, but his future income will be cut by roughly 25%...I would not classify that as unimportant but you keep your thoughts on it and I will keep mine. 

I never said it was unimportant, I said specifically that it does NOT mean it’s unimportant, but if you’re trying to save space for potential needs, you have to draw the line somewhere.

[BobbyPhil1781]

7 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

@Shanedorf can deal with the immunology, but I can at least take the easy part.

Yes, if a virus does not infect a cell, eventually it will be discovered by the immune system and destroyed directly. Otherwise, viruses are cleared in feces if the exposure was oral, through the lungs/nasal passages by coughing, or a small amount through the urine.

Beyond the phase,  there are a good number of things that determine how promising a drug is/can be. In this case, the biggest issue is the mechanism of action (how the drug works). In this case, the drug reduces inflammation by using a pathway that's already well known in your body (JAK1/JAK2). That's good, since excessive inflammation can make COVID-19 symptoms worse, but it's not directly killing the virus, so the ceiling for this type of drug would be something that is administered to people who are already pretty sick from COVID-19 and really need that symptom relief. Nice to have, but not a frontline drug.

A slightly smaller downside is that since this drug uses a known pathway and there are lots of JAK inhibitors already, that means the maximum effect you'll get with one or two or a million JAK inhibitors is the effect from completely shutting down the JAK pathway. So there's less room for combining different drugs using different pathways to get that desired effect. This is a weird thing to explain, so let me know if that doesn't make sense.

Also, safety is established in Phase 1 of clinical trials, so there shouldn't be any concerns with that once we get to Phases 2 and 3.

 

 

Thanks for taking the time to explain this I assumed I was right about the virus dying off if it can't find cells to attach to but, again, I'm very naive w/ this stuff and retaining it has always been something I've had problems w/ even back when I took classes.

Jumping around a bit:

I'm glad phase 1 is simply pertaining to safety. That has me a little more excited knowing the amount of treatments and vaccines already past that phase of testing especially those in phase 3 right now. IIRC these phases are rather expedited as well due to the severity of the problem at hand otherwise it would be a longer process. It makes a lot of sense.

TBH, I gathered a little bit from what you said and appreciate the time you took to explain it. From what I'm seeing is that you're suggesting cocktails would be impossible using this drug as a result of how it gets the job done. I'm really confused about this drug and inflammation reduction being a good thing. The reason I state this is b/c I had always heard ibuprofen was bad to take and could worsen the effects of covid. I assumed that was all anti-inflammatories and maybe that's just me being stupid for assuming that. I did read something that suggested it was OK to take it but I guess that's the norm these days unless you're getting your hands on actual data.

I agree w/ your explanation that having it is nice albeit not a "frontline drug". At this point, I feel we're going to have an arsenal of things to help treat this when it's all said and done but, w/ everything pertaining to this damn virus, I hope I'm wrong and the really smart people figure something out and tell everyone what to do. Sooner rather than later also. I love my house, I love my wife, but I want to do other things lol.

[Shanedorf]

 

1 hour ago, JTagg7754 said:

The best news about it is it's an FDA approved drug that we're fully aware of as far as potential side effects.

Sort of. Its in a new phase 3 trial to see if it works against COVID19 disease. We know its safe and effective at the doses used for arthritis, but we don't know if its safe and effective at doses needed to work against corona symptoms. As noted by ramssuperbowl99, the safety was tested earlier -  but I don't know how high a dose they tested. Typically, they'd go up to a maximum tolerated dose,  so its a fair guess we know the safety profile, but not 100 % certain

This drug is going after some of the symptoms of the disease, namely the over-reaction by our immune system which leads to some of the lung problems

 

3 hours ago, JTagg7754 said:

testing whether Olumiant can cut the rate of death or the need for ventilation or other oxygen support in 400 hospitalized patients, it said Monday."

This trial is targeting the patients who are closer to death and/or need a vent - by that point in the disease, you're fully engulfed and previously there weren't a lot of options. This drug and with others in testing offer promise. However, once patients get that far along, they have other significant issues which makes it harder to treat them with drugs, even drugs that should show promise.

An example is kidney failure/ liver impairment. If these patients have kidney/liver problems from COVID19 or from previous diseases ( diabetes) , they can't clear the drug being tested like a healthy person would. So now they are getting a toxic build up of the medicine being tested and impacts success of the trials
So while it works for reasonably healthy people with arthritis, it may or may not be useful for a patient in dire straits from COVID19, this trial will help answer those questions. None of this is binary, its all very complex and when you pull on one lever, it changes something else.

All of these represent great progress, and we'll see which ones pan out and for which groups of patients. 

[Shanedorf]

5 minutes ago, JTagg7754 said:

I'm really confused about this drug and inflammation reduction being a good thing.

It depends on the mechanism of action. Think of inflammation as an orchestra. If you want to shut down the orchestra, you can kill the conductor, turn off the power, hide the sheet music, turn on louder music, keep the cello players from finding a parking spot, inhibit the flute section and on and on. Ibuprofen uses one method to shut down inflammation, the JAK inhibitors use a different method.

[ramssuperbowl99]

13 minutes ago, JTagg7754 said:

TBH, I gathered a little bit from what you said and appreciate the time you took to explain it. From what I'm seeing is that you're suggesting cocktails would be impossible using this drug as a result of how it gets the job done.

Not that they would be impossible, just that they would have to activate or inhibit different pathways in your body to each produce a response (in other words, the two drugs would have to work differently).

Edited June 15, 2020 by ramssuperbowl99

[Xenos]

7 hours ago, seriously27 said:

They had some studies come out a month ago or so that showed smokers actually do better against the virus than non smokers. It's a good thing because smokers would have been in the highest risk bracket since the virus attacks the respiratory system. I imagine this fact may have actually brought the fatality numbers down a decent portion from what they could have been. 

Thought it was related to nicotine but I could be wrong.

[TOUCAN]

I got that ‘Rona y’all.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

15 minutes ago, JoshstraDaymus said:

I got that ‘Rona y’all.

How are you feeling?

[vikesfan89]

21 minutes ago, JoshstraDaymus said:

I got that ‘Rona y’all.

Kick its ***

[TOUCAN]

6 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

How are you feeling?

 

Just now, vikesfan89 said:

Kick its ***

Honestly, miserable. I haven’t slept a full night in a few days, and I’ve been sleeping on the couch. It’s a little hard to breathe. At first I thought I was just retaining water in my chest due to heart failure but my test came back and that explains the breath shortness and the exhaustion. I threw up a few days ago, and I lost my voice, haven’t been able to talk since and my throat is hella sore

[vikesfan89]

Damn that sucks

[mission27]

6/15/2020 MoL Scores:

Methodology and disclaimer: MoL score is a simple metric for measuring rate of spread of the novel coronavirus within communities.  The metric was developed by mission and TLO and has not been subjected to academic peer review.  The MoL looks at a trailing average of daily new cases and compares this to trailing active cases within the community.  These rankings do not represent the opinion of anyone other than mission and TLO and should not be taken as advice of any kind.  Please note while the numbers themselves are objective calculations, smugness and Taylor Swift lyrics may factor into our commentary and decisions on tiers.  The MoL reserves the right to make changes to this methodology at any time.  Please follow all relevant governmental and/or WHO/CDC guidance.  We will defeat this virus.

"Me-e-e, ooh-ooh-ooh-ooh

I'm the only one of me
Baby, that's the fun of me
Eeh-eeh-eeh, ooh-ooh-ooh-ooh
You're the only one of you
Baby, that's the fun of you
And I promise that nobody's gonna love you like me-e-e"

- Taylor Swift

MoL sends its thoughts and prayers to the people of Arizona who are ruining this for everybody.  WEAR A MASK.

Tier 1: Outbreak under control, safe to begin relaxing social distancing measures

Tier 1 countries are pretty,... pretty... pretty good

How to safely open up in Tier 1? Take a look at the MoL method for proper easing, otherwise known as the MoL public health cost benefit matrix.

New Zealand: NA (New Zealand had zero active cases as of a week ago HOWEVER today they reported 2 new cases, both imported from the UK.  Not a huge concern)

Spain: 0.1*

Belgium: 0.3

Netherlands: 0.4

UK: 0.5

Italy: 0.8

France: 0.8

Canada: 1.2

Hong Kong: 1.3

USA: 2.0

Ireland: 2.0

Sweden: 2.1*

Czech Republic: 2.2

Australia: 2.2

Portugal: 2.5

Singapore: 2.8

Global: 2.9

Germany: 3.4

Japan: 4.2

South Korea: 4.5

Turkey: 5.0

Austria: 5.2

Denmark: 6.3

Switzerland: 6.5

Israel: 6.5

Tier 2: New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1

Tier 2 countries aren't  doing as well as Tier 1 countries, but eh, we'll give 'em a pass, why not!  Especially since Larry doesn't want to get fatwahed again.

Philippines: 3.4

Russia: 3.6

Tier 3: Countries in this group that are showing increased MoLs have the potential to go deep into the danger zones, but countries with falling MoLs may only be a couple of days from tier 2 status and may have already peaked in gross # of new cases

These countries could really do a lot better if they followed common decency standards, like washing their hands or respecting wood 

Brazil: 7.4

Iran: 7.9

India: 8.7

Tier 4: Aggressive growth, still likely have not peaked in single day cases, and likely a week or two minimum from peak in deaths (however many of these countries are still slowing down)

We feel very bad for the last Tier 4 country remaining on our list, the Mexico.  Its like that time Funkhauser became an orphan at 60 (RIP Funkhauser).

Mexico: 22.4

China: 31.0

USA State Level MoLs

MoL Deaths

Yet another all-time low. Lets see if we break 1k tomorrow. It'll be interesting to see if these start to pickup again soon on a ~10 day lag from the blip in cases.

Canada

Great job @JBURGE

Quebec doing great moving on up.  Ontario into Tier 1.  Now open the border.

The MoL would like to thank everyone for their contributions to this important work including @ET80 @acowboys62 @dtait93 @Dome @naptownskinsfan @kingseanjohn @Malfatron @Shady Slim @malagabears @daboyle250 @vikesfan89 @ramssuperbowl99 @sdrawkcab321 @Nazgul @kingseanjohn  @TwoUpTwoDown @Xenos @Nex_Gen @FinneasGage @TVScout @seriously27 @N4L and the others who love us so much

We'd even like to thank @pwny @Glen and others for their critical attitude because of the attention it brings to the great work MoL is doing 

@TLO

The message of this gif is that the MoL is signing out until tomorrow (although we reserve the right to **** on anyone who questions our authority on these matters)

[TwoUpTwoDown]

Got tested for rona today 

[N4L]

I haven't paid much attention to the mols but the fact the US is tier 1 with a score of 2 is laughable given the recent spikes in different areas 

Also hilarious you are tagging a Canadian poster and telling him what a great job Canada is doing literally every day while simultaneously talking about how Canada needs to open it's borders or else. Just lol 

[theJ]

5 hours ago, N4L said:

I haven't paid much attention to the mols but the fact the US is tier 1 with a score of 2 is laughable given the recent spikes in different areas 

 

Some areas are spiking, while others are declining.  Honestly the country is so large, with such a big population that's so spread out that it's hard to boil down a whole country to a single number.