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TVScout

TVScout

Posted
Posted

Has this been reported here yet?

Anyway, not free:

Abbott coronavirus test missed a large number of positive results caught by a rival firm, preliminary study says

Test hailed by President Trump has been dogged by accuracy questions

Quote

The Abbott coronavirus test hailed by President Trump and used by the White House failed to detect infected samples in a large number of cases that were caught by a rival firm, a preliminary study has found.

The speedy Abbott test, which is supposed to determine in five to 13 minutes whether a person has the virus, missed a third of the positive samples found by the diagnostic company Cepheid when both tests used nasopharyngeal swabs, according to the study done by a group from New York University. It missed more than 48 percent of cases when dry nasal swabs were run on Abbott machines, compared to nasopharyngeal swabs run on the Cepheid testing platform. Nasopharyngeal swabs penetrate deeply into the nasal passages, while dry nasal swabs are less invasive.  The study, while preliminary and not yet peer-reviewed, raised questions about a test that has been praised by Trump, who displayed it at a news conference in the Rose Garden on April 2 and said it created “a whole new ballgame.” As the pandemic was creating a sense of urgency about testing, the Abbott test triggered a scramble among governors and other state officials because bottlenecks were causing waits of as long as a week or longer for test results.  The Abbott rapid test missed about 25 percent of positives compared with a slower Abbott test, according to a study published April 23 in the Journal of Clinical Microbiology.  At Loyola University Medical Center, where researchers found 1 in 4 positive cases were missed, health-care providers are using the Abbott rapid test to screen patients — but performing a laboratory test to double-check any negatives. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/05/13/abbott-test-hailed-by-president-trump-has-been-dogged-by-accuracy-questions/?utm_campaign=wp_for_you&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_personalizedforyou

 

Further reading:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/professionals/diagnosis/clinician_guidance_ridt.htm

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mission27

mission27

Posted
Posted

5/14/2020 MoL Scores:

Methodology and disclaimer: MoL score is a simple metric for measuring rate of spread of the novel coronavirus within communities.  The metric was developed by mission and TLO and has not been subjected to academic peer review.  The MoL looks at a trailing average of daily new cases and compares this to trailing active cases within the community.  These rankings do not represent the opinion of anyone other than mission and TLO and should not be taken as advice of any kind.  Please note while the numbers themselves are objective calculations, smugness and Taylor Swift lyrics may factor into our commentary and decisions on tiers.  The MoL reserves the right to make changes to this methodology at any time.  Please follow all relevant governmental and/or WHO/CDC guidance.  We will defeat this virus.

"You should take it as a compliment
That I got drunk and made fun of the way you talk"

- Taylor Swift

Today USA and Canada are doing very well, and the MoL is smug, but we feel bad for Brazil

Tier 1: Outbreak under control, safe to begin relaxing social distancing measures

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Tier 1 countries are pretty,... pretty... pretty good

How to safely open up in Tier 1? Take a look at the MoL method for proper easing, otherwise known as the MoL public health cost benefit matrix.

Israel: 0.5

France: 0.6

Netherlands: 0.7

Japan: 0.9

Portugal: 1.0

Hong Kong: 1.2

Italy: 1.2

Czech Republic: 1.3

Belgium: 1.4

Australia: 1.8

Switzerland: 2.0

UK: 2.1

China: 2.1

South Korea: 2.3

USA: 2.4 (all-time low and not far off from South Korea now, great job!)

Philippines: 2.7

Austria: 3.0

Turkey: 3.3

Sweden: 3.4

Spain: 3.4

Germany: 3.6

Tier 2: New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1

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Tier 2 countries aren't  doing as well as Tier 1 countries, but eh, we'll give 'em a pass, why not!  Especially since Larry doesn't want to get fatwahed again.

Global: 3.3

Canada: 3.8 (breaks below 4 and getting close to tier 1 status, amazing, even Quebec is now below 5 see below)

Singapore: 3.9 (Singapore also breaks below 4 and continues the long slog to making MoL geniuses) 

Denmark: 4.8

Ireland: 5.3 (dropping them back to tier 2, but hopefully a blip)

Russia: 7.1

Tier 3: Countries in this group that are showing increased MoLs have the potential to go deep into the danger zones, but countries with falling MoLs may only be a couple of days from tier 2 status and may have already peaked in gross # of new cases

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These countries could really do a lot better if they followed common decency standards, like washing their hands or respecting wood 

India: 9.7

Iran: 11.7

Brazil: 13.5

Tier 4: Aggressive growth, still likely have not peaked in single day cases, and likely a week or two minimum from peak in deaths (however many of these countries are still slowing down)

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We feel very bad for the last Tier 4 country remaining on our list, the Mexico.  Its like that time Funkhauser became an orphan at 60 (RIP Funkhauser).

Mexico: 25.1

USA State Level MoLs

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Wow, great job!  Per the state numbers we're as good as South Korea.

MoL Deaths

Look at the maroon bars vs. the dark blue, deaths have consistently dropped this week compared to prior week. There have been 6,848 deaths since May 10th compared to an MoL projection of 7,577.  Wow, great job! 

image.png

Canada

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Wow, great job!  Quebec dropping like a rock, great job 

@JBURGE

MoL.png

The MoL would like to thank everyone for their contributions to this important work including @ET80 @acowboys62 @dtait93 @Dome @naptownskinsfan @kingseanjohn @Malfatron @Shady Slim @malagabears @daboyle250 @vikesfan89 @ramssuperbowl99 @sdrawkcab321 @Nazgul @kingseanjohn @mistakey @TwoUpTwoDown @Xenos @Nex_Gen @FinneasGage @TVScout @seriously27 @N4L and the others who love us so much

We'd even like to thank @pwny @Glen and others for their critical attitude because of the attention it brings to the great work MoL is doing 

@TLO

source.gif

The message of this gif is that the MoL is signing out until tomorrow (although we reserve the right to **** on anyone who questions our authority on these matters)

Key takeaway is our 'bad days' of the week which tend to be Thursday and Friday for most cases used to be 35k or more and are now trending towards 25k.  Good days used to be in the mid-high 20s and we're now seeing days below 20k cases again.

A lot of that improvement is NYC metro but we've also seen improvements in Boston, Philly, and other areas 

And the areas that aren't improving are generally low cases per capita to begin with, with a few small exceptions we've talked about (Minessota 

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WizeGuy

WizeGuy

Posted
Posted

Great news regarding immunity:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity

 

Interesting quote:

"Both studies also found that some people never infected with SARS-CoV-2 have these cellular defenses, most likely because they were previously infected with other coronaviruses."

 

This may be why there are so many asymptomatic cases. If someone got a coronavirus cold then it may provide some immunity to COVID-19. Great news.

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mistakey

mistakey

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, WizeGuy said:

Great news regarding immunity:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity

 

Interesting quote:

"Both studies also found that some people never infected with SARS-CoV-2 have these cellular defenses, most likely because they were previously infected with other coronaviruses."

 

This may be why there are so many asymptomatic cases. If someone got a coronavirus cold then it may provide some immunity to COVID-19. Great news.

Sickkkk

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theJ

theJ

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, WizeGuy said:

If someone got a coronavirus cold then it may provide some immunity to COVID-19. Great news.

Oh then i'm golden.  I get on average somewhere around 4-6 colds/year.  Probably because i have a 2 and 6 year old.  Almost certainly some of those have been coronaviruses.  

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ET80

ET80

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, theJ said:

Oh then i'm golden.  I get on average somewhere around 4-6 colds/year.  Probably because i have a 2 and 6 year old.  Almost certainly some of those have been coronaviruses.  

The lil petri dishes are paying off!

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WizeGuy

WizeGuy

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, theJ said:

Oh then i'm golden.  I get on average somewhere around 4-6 colds/year.  Probably because i have a 2 and 6 year old.  Almost certainly some of those have been coronaviruses.  

Good point. May also indicate why younger kids don't seem to be as harshly impacted. Lord knows their bodies get hit with a bunch of germs and viruses throughout a school year/ at daycare. 

Edited by WizeGuy
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MWil23

MWil23

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, theJ said:
1 hour ago, WizeGuy said:

If someone got a coronavirus cold then it may provide some immunity to COVID-19. Great news.

Oh then i'm golden.  I get on average somewhere around 4-6 colds/year.  Probably because i have a 2 and 6 year old.  Almost certainly some of those have been coronaviruses.  

Every teacher and day care worker in America is confirmed immune to this.

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naptownskinsfan

naptownskinsfan

Posted
Posted

https://www.newsweek.com/baltimore-restaurant-owner-cant-get-employees-return-because-they-make-more-unemployment-1503808?fbclid=IwAR2JsqxrbircOUvrb8rIprYd8dqoq9zM77Aq76s8_b9bvLT0ANTnfclKiLU

I was surprised- in a good way- that many states and the federal government rallied with unemployment.  But now I think it's time for business owners and others to be able to submit to the unemployment offices something along the lines of "hey, we are reopened, need these people back and they have x number of hours."  My boss did not have a lot of current employees file for unemployment, but the ones that did were swiftly shot down because he told the claims office that he had hours and wanted everyone back.  Business owners need some protection in this too right now.  

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