theJ Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 2 hours ago, Shanedorf said: There are unfortunately a lot of poor quality antibody tests out there and part of that is because of the massive rush to make them available shortcuts were taken, quality assurance requirements and validation steps were waived. Accuracy didn't meet specs It sounds like the dentist views this as new revenue generation for his office. If the test is from Cellex, the reliability is better https://cellexcovid.com/ for others, its really a crapshoot https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/09/uk-government-urged-to-abandon-poor-finger-prick-antibody-tests-coronavirus The Oxford group has characterized six different antibody tests and found that most fall well short of the accuracy required. Most failed to detect antibodies half the time and the best spotted the immune cells only 70% of the time. If used at scale, the tests could leave millions of people who have immunity convinced they are still vulnerable to the infection. For the test to pass, the accuracy would have to be nearer 95%. Unfortunately i think you're going to be able to take this post, and make minor modifications 6-9 months from now referring to the vaccine and that will be spot on too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingseanjohn Posted June 10, 2020 Share Posted June 10, 2020 45 minutes ago, JTagg7754 said: Good News Guy is back!! Y'all love me. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-lilly-exclusive/exclusive-lilly-covid-19-treatment-could-be-authorized-for-use-as-soon-as-september-chief-scientist-idUSKBN23H35S "Exclusive: Lilly COVID-19 treatment could be authorized for use as soon as September - chief scientist" We've all been focusing on vaccines, not potential treatments. Not saying anything will come of it but a major company like this does offer some reason for optimism. Is this treatment effective at all stages or only at particular times? Does it have any effects on other health condition? I skimmed through and didn't really see any details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, fraziafraze07 said: @mission27 Would it be possible/you willing to provide a bit of detail on the North Carolina data, and why it might be "weird?" I'm only going off the numbers I'm seeing on our Department of Health and Human Services COVID dashboard, and it looks like we have a big problem. I'm speaking only to the percentage of tests coming back positive. Basically, you have some days where it is pretty damn low like 4-5% and some days its 10%+ which is bad. That's been the case now for weeks. I agree that it looks like you have a big problem because: - Looks like more days in the 9-12% range than the low range compared to before - Flat percentage of tests coming back positive when you are expanding testing is a bad sign... it should naturally come down as you test more mildly symptomatic people Edit: source for testing data, click "NC", tests have definitely increased quite a bit and unlike Arizona there isn't a clear pattern of percent of tests positive spiking. but its still somewhat concerning. https://public.tableau.com/profile/peter.james.walker#!/vizhome/Coronavirus-ChangeovertimeintheUSA/00_Overlay Edited June 11, 2020 by mission27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 4 hours ago, swoosh said: @mission27 long time reader, first time poster (not really tbh). love the thread. my question for you today is how reliable are these covid antibody tests, specifically around false negatives? I went to the dentist last week and this cute girl asked me if I wanted a covid antibody test and I said sure why the hell not, give it to me. she proceeded to take a small amount of blood from my left pinky. i mean, come on, surely my defense system is strong enough to not let covid get to my right thumb, let alone my left pinky of all places. they also had the audacity to charge me $50 for the test and decline my amex card, but that's not the point. first time in life you're really hoping for a positive test and you get shutdown. brutal feeling. @swoosh It depends how cute we are talking. If she's not at least an 8/10 or above I would not trust the test. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swoosh Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 1 minute ago, mission27 said: @swoosh It depends how cute we are talking. If she's not at least an 8/10 or above I would not trust the test. outstanding news. she is under so it's safe to assume the test was bs. thanks for the reply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 1 hour ago, JTagg7754 said: Good News Guy is back!! Y'all love me. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-lilly-exclusive/exclusive-lilly-covid-19-treatment-could-be-authorized-for-use-as-soon-as-september-chief-scientist-idUSKBN23H35S "Exclusive: Lilly COVID-19 treatment could be authorized for use as soon as September - chief scientist" We've all been focusing on vaccines, not potential treatments. Not saying anything will come of it but a major company like this does offer some reason for optimism. Scale? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 20 minutes ago, kingseanjohn said: Is this treatment effective at all stages or only at particular times? Does it have any effects on other health condition? I skimmed through and didn't really see any details. I don't work for them nor have the mental capacity to answer your questions. This might though https://investor.lilly.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lilly-begins-worlds-first-study-potential-covid-19-antibody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shanedorf Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 21 minutes ago, kingseanjohn said: Is this treatment effective at all stages or only at particular times? Does it have any effects on other health condition? I skimmed through and didn't really see any details. These antibodies are directed against the spike protein and the spike protein is how the virus enters your cells. So one would think its useful at early stages of infection, but once you're fully engulfed in the disease, its utility would drop off. They are also looking at it as a prophylactic to protect vulnerable populations like the elderly. So this one is for the early stages of disease and would be a valuable tool in the arsenal. I don't imagine it would impact other health conditions, but that's unknown from the article There are reasons for optimism, but as always - go back and read the articles again taking note of key words like " if, may, might, could" We just don't know yet...and most successful anti-viral meds are a combination of 2 or more therapeutics to hit the virus from different angles at different stages If you have a vaccine, it trains your immune system who the bad guys are - and then your body will hit the virus from different angles at different stages There is good progress on both fronts and that's reason for optimism 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 6/10/2020 MoL Scores: Methodology and disclaimer: MoL score is a simple metric for measuring rate of spread of the novel coronavirus within communities. The metric was developed by mission and TLO and has not been subjected to academic peer review. The MoL looks at a trailing average of daily new cases and compares this to trailing active cases within the community. These rankings do not represent the opinion of anyone other than mission and TLO and should not be taken as advice of any kind. Please note while the numbers themselves are objective calculations, smugness and Taylor Swift lyrics may factor into our commentary and decisions on tiers. The MoL reserves the right to make changes to this methodology at any time. Please follow all relevant governmental and/or WHO/CDC guidance. We will defeat this virus. "This won't go back to normal, if it ever was It's been years of hoping, and I keep saying it because'Cause I have to" - Taylor Swift MoL sends its thoughts and prayers to the people of Arizona who are ruining this for everybody. WEAR A MASK. Tier 1: Outbreak under control, safe to begin relaxing social distancing measures Tier 1 countries are pretty,... pretty... pretty good How to safely open up in Tier 1? Take a look at the MoL method for proper easing, otherwise known as the MoL public health cost benefit matrix. New Zealand: 0.0 (perfect score still! they reported that the last known active case has recovered, meaning no COVID in New Zealand. if they get to the end of next week without any cases they'll officially have retired from the MoL!) Spain: 0.1* Netherlands: 0.4 Belgium: 0.4 UK: 0.5 Italy: 0.7 France: 0.9 Australia: 1.3 Sweden: 1.7* Canada: 1.7 USA: 1.9 Ireland: 2.3 Czech Republic: 2.3 Portugal: 2.8 Singapore: 2.9 Japan: 2.9 Global: 3.0 Turkey: 3.1 Hong Kong: 3.9 Germany: 4.1 Switzerland: 4.5 South Korea: 5.2 Denmark: 5.5 China: 6.5 Israel: 6.6 Austria: 7.8 Tier 2: New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1 Tier 2 countries aren't doing as well as Tier 1 countries, but eh, we'll give 'em a pass, why not! Especially since Larry doesn't want to get fatwahed again. Russia: 3.8 Philippines: 3.9 Tier 3: Countries in this group that are showing increased MoLs have the potential to go deep into the danger zones, but countries with falling MoLs may only be a couple of days from tier 2 status and may have already peaked in gross # of new cases These countries could really do a lot better if they followed common decency standards, like washing their hands or respecting wood Iran: 9.0 Brazil: 9.6 India: 9.6 Tier 4: Aggressive growth, still likely have not peaked in single day cases, and likely a week or two minimum from peak in deaths (however many of these countries are still slowing down) We feel very bad for the last Tier 4 country remaining on our list, the Mexico. Its like that time Funkhauser became an orphan at 60 (RIP Funkhauser). Mexico: 23.5 USA State Level MoLs Note: MoL adjusted to remove the impact of the 5,014 probable deaths added on 6/5. Consistent with treatment on Worldometer. MoL Deaths ALL TIME LOW! ALL TIME LOW! Canada Great job @JBURGE Quebec doing great moving on up. Ontario into Tier 1. Now open the border. The MoL would like to thank everyone for their contributions to this important work including @ET80 @acowboys62 @dtait93 @Dome @naptownskinsfan @kingseanjohn @Malfatron @Shady Slim @malagabears @daboyle250 @vikesfan89 @ramssuperbowl99 @sdrawkcab321 @Nazgul @kingseanjohn @TwoUpTwoDown @Xenos @Nex_Gen @FinneasGage @TVScout @seriously27 @N4L and the others who love us so much We'd even like to thank @pwny @Glen and others for their critical attitude because of the attention it brings to the great work MoL is doing @TLO The message of this gif is that the MoL is signing out until tomorrow (although we reserve the right to **** on anyone who questions our authority on these matters) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WizeGuy Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 8 hours ago, mission27 said: 6/10/2020 MoL Scores: Methodology and disclaimer: MoL score is a simple metric for measuring rate of spread of the novel coronavirus within communities. The metric was developed by mission and TLO and has not been subjected to academic peer review. The MoL looks at a trailing average of daily new cases and compares this to trailing active cases within the community. These rankings do not represent the opinion of anyone other than mission and TLO and should not be taken as advice of any kind. Please note while the numbers themselves are objective calculations, smugness and Taylor Swift lyrics may factor into our commentary and decisions on tiers. The MoL reserves the right to make changes to this methodology at any time. Please follow all relevant governmental and/or WHO/CDC guidance. We will defeat this virus. "This won't go back to normal, if it ever was It's been years of hoping, and I keep saying it because'Cause I have to" - Taylor Swift MoL sends its thoughts and prayers to the people of Arizona who are ruining this for everybody. WEAR A MASK. Tier 1: Outbreak under control, safe to begin relaxing social distancing measures Tier 1 countries are pretty,... pretty... pretty good How to safely open up in Tier 1? Take a look at the MoL method for proper easing, otherwise known as the MoL public health cost benefit matrix. New Zealand: 0.0 (perfect score still! they reported that the last known active case has recovered, meaning no COVID in New Zealand. if they get to the end of next week without any cases they'll officially have retired from the MoL!) Spain: 0.1* Netherlands: 0.4 Belgium: 0.4 UK: 0.5 Italy: 0.7 France: 0.9 Australia: 1.3 Sweden: 1.7* Canada: 1.7 USA: 1.9 Ireland: 2.3 Czech Republic: 2.3 Portugal: 2.8 Singapore: 2.9 Japan: 2.9 Global: 3.0 Turkey: 3.1 Hong Kong: 3.9 Germany: 4.1 Switzerland: 4.5 South Korea: 5.2 Denmark: 5.5 China: 6.5 Israel: 6.6 Austria: 7.8 Tier 2: New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1 Tier 2 countries aren't doing as well as Tier 1 countries, but eh, we'll give 'em a pass, why not! Especially since Larry doesn't want to get fatwahed again. Russia: 3.8 Philippines: 3.9 Tier 3: Countries in this group that are showing increased MoLs have the potential to go deep into the danger zones, but countries with falling MoLs may only be a couple of days from tier 2 status and may have already peaked in gross # of new cases These countries could really do a lot better if they followed common decency standards, like washing their hands or respecting wood Iran: 9.0 Brazil: 9.6 India: 9.6 Tier 4: Aggressive growth, still likely have not peaked in single day cases, and likely a week or two minimum from peak in deaths (however many of these countries are still slowing down) We feel very bad for the last Tier 4 country remaining on our list, the Mexico. Its like that time Funkhauser became an orphan at 60 (RIP Funkhauser). Mexico: 23.5 USA State Level MoLs Note: MoL adjusted to remove the impact of the 5,014 probable deaths added on 6/5. Consistent with treatment on Worldometer. MoL Deaths ALL TIME LOW! ALL TIME LOW! Canada Great job @JBURGE Quebec doing great moving on up. Ontario into Tier 1. Now open the border. The MoL would like to thank everyone for their contributions to this important work including @ET80 @acowboys62 @dtait93 @Dome @naptownskinsfan @kingseanjohn @Malfatron @Shady Slim @malagabears @daboyle250 @vikesfan89 @ramssuperbowl99 @sdrawkcab321 @Nazgul @kingseanjohn @TwoUpTwoDown @Xenos @Nex_Gen @FinneasGage @TVScout @seriously27 @N4L and the others who love us so much We'd even like to thank @pwny @Glen and others for their critical attitude because of the attention it brings to the great work MoL is doing @TLO The message of this gif is that the MoL is signing out until tomorrow (although we reserve the right to **** on anyone who questions our authority on these matters) My state looks to be killing it right now. Cuomo made some idiotic moves early on, but man- he's done a great job with reopening. Gives me hope we can be in at least phase-3 for the rest of the summer, which brings a sense of normality in all this madness. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 On 6/9/2020 at 5:36 AM, ET80 said: https://abc13.com/6238157/?ex_cid=TA_KTRK_FB&utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook There's been a lot of gatherings in Houston lately, and it looks as if we're seeing increases from that. https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2020/06/11/local-hospitals-seeing-spike-in-covid-19-cases/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=snd&utm_content=kprc2 Fort Bend County, represent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 (edited) Interesting news so I can't acknowledge my self-appointed title here that I am used to doing these days. Coronavirus vaccine developers have a ‘bizarre’ problem. There’s not enough sick people. Warning: Horrendous Ads https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/coronavirus-vaccine-trials-astrazeneca-moderna/2020/06/09/48f28fea-a414-11ea-898e-b21b9a83f792_story.html “"Now the problem we will all have, I think, is we are running against time a little bit, because we see already the disease in Europe is declining,” Soriot said. “Pretty soon, the disease’s intensity will be low and it will become difficult” to gauge efficacy in a vaccine trial." ---------------------------------------------------- I kinda don't know what to think about this. We're seeing a severe spike in the US in some states, Brazil and SA are hot spots, and I feel there's plenty of cases to provide the samples needed for studies. I'm extremely science illiterate though. I have always found it fascinating but could never really grasp it so maybe it's something really simple I'm just overlooking b/c I'm an idiot. I feel it's kinda click-baity so sorry if you feel it is as well since I shared it lol Edited June 11, 2020 by JTagg7754 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TVScout Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 Not much new today beyond the usual free https://www.washingtonpost.com/coronavirus/?itid=sn_coronavirus_title maybe free https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html Surgeons perform first known U.S. lung transplant for covid-19 patient https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/surgeons-perform-first-known-us-lung-transplant-for-covid-19-patient/2020/06/10/02a43dd6-ab62-11ea-a9d9-a81c1a491c52_story.html Masks, No Kissing and ‘a Little Kinky’: Dating and Sex in a Pandemic New York City public health officials have frank new advice for people who are looking for companionship and physical intimacy during the pandemic. Quote A number of public health agencies have offered tips for dating and sex during the pandemic, but the New York City health department has recently updated its Safer Sex and Covid-19 fact sheet with more-detailed and descriptive advice. The new guidelines still say “you are your safest sex partner,” and that the “next safest partner” is someone in your household. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/11/well/live/coronavirus-sex-dating-masks.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20200611&instance_id=19296&nl=the-morning®i_id=127802529&segment_id=30654&te=1&user_id=0ec3b530f45ff5c070e34ae9b6fc8ea1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 Good News Guy is back! Shoo doom and gloom! Like Lilly, another company is entering the clinical trials of it's treatment and prevention testing. This company has the most successful treatment for Ebola that is available right now so they're not dummies up there! "Regeneron starts testing COVID-19 antibody cocktail in humans" https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/regeneron-starts-testing-covid-19-antibody-cocktail-humans "One of the prophylactic studies will enroll healthcare workers and other uninfected people who are at high risk of exposure to the virus. The other prophylactic study will administer the antibodies to uninfected people who are closely exposed to COVID-19 patients, for example because they live with someone who is infected with SARS-CoV-2." ------------------------------ FTR I know a lot of companies are stating they're starting clinical trials of stuff but if you've noticed, I'm not posting every single one but instead, limiting myself to those that, IMO, warrant acknowledgement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted June 11, 2020 Share Posted June 11, 2020 https://www.forbes.com/sites/marlamilling/2020/06/06/bald-men-at-higher-risk-of-severe-coronavirus-symptoms/ Welp, I'm screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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