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in This aint sports talk!

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seriously27

seriously27

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, theJ said:

Right. Not arguing any of that. What I was getting at: Does this tell us anything about the herd immunity % given that they're not trying to curb the rate of spread yet it's dying off anyway? 

Unfortunately Sweden is giving out a number of 7% right now when they predicted it would be 20 to 30 at this point. So that experiment seems to be a failure. And by choosing that path, their failure meant the great loss of a lot of lives. 

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WizeGuy

WizeGuy

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, seriously27 said:

Unfortunately Sweden is giving out a number of 7% right now when they predicted it would be 20 to 30 at this point. So that experiment seems to be a failure. And by choosing that path, their failure meant the great loss of a lot of lives. 

It's important to note those numbers were from the middle-later April. Im not sure what the percentage is now. Regardless, extremely risky gamble to take when we have little knowledge of the virus. 

Although... going back to the Spanish flu there were a few areas that werent nearly as hard hit by a second wave since a much higher percentage of the population had developed immunity. It's going to be interesting to see what happens in the fall. 

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WizeGuy

WizeGuy

Posted
Posted (edited)
Over 80% of coronavirus patients on cruise ship had no symptoms, study says
 
Damn, this study has been peer-reviewed, too. I didnt read the actual study( only the article). Note that the researchers did clarify there were false negatives...
Edited by WizeGuy
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theJ

theJ

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, seriously27 said:

Unfortunately Sweden is giving out a number of 7% right now when they predicted it would be 20 to 30 at this point. So that experiment seems to be a failure. And by choosing that path, their failure meant the great loss of a lot of lives. 

Devil's advocate though: how are they at testing? We know there's a lot of asymptomatic cases out there. Is that 7% just way underreported?

Just trying to gain a better understanding. 

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TVScout

TVScout

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, WizeGuy said:
Over 80% of coronavirus patients on cruise ship had no symptoms, study says
 
Damn, this study has been peer-reviewed, too. I didnt read the actual study( only the article). Note that the researchers did clarify there were false negatives...

Seconded:

https://time.com/5842669/coronavirus-asymptomatic-transmission/

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Heimdallr

Heimdallr

Posted
Posted

Based off absolutely no evidence, I fully believe the number of cases are 5-10x higher than reported, and deaths are probably 2-3x. Low testing, unwillingness to report deaths, asymptomatic cases, fear of getting (paying for) treatment..... 

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bucsfan333

bucsfan333

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, Heimdallr said:

Based off absolutely no evidence, I fully believe the number of cases are 5-10x higher than reported, and deaths are probably 2-3x. Low testing, unwillingness to report deaths, asymptomatic cases, fear of getting (paying for) treatment..... 

Apparently there are members of congress that have gotten it and not reported it.

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Xenos

Xenos

Posted
Posted (edited)

The Hobbits are taking down not only Sauron and the One Ring, but also Covid:

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/05/23/861577367/messaging-from-leaders-who-have-tamed-their-countrys-coronavirus-outbreaks

Quote

New Zealand's triumph

Perhaps the greatest success story is New Zealand, which has stopped local transmission and has a plan to completely eliminate the virus from its territory.

"The lesson is that it can be done," says Siouxsie Wiles, an associate professor of microbiology in New Zealand. "Obviously, the longer you leave it, and the more cases there are, the harder it becomes. But that doesn't mean that we shouldn't try."

Wiles heads up the Bioluminescent Superbugs Lab at the University of Auckland. Much of her work focuses on antibiotic resistance and infectious diseases. When the coronavirus hit, she got involved in communication efforts in New Zealand to help explain the virus, including by using a popular cartoon.

But it wasn't just scientists who led the charge. Wiles — and many other New Zealanders — give much of the credit for their country's success to the swift and decisive leadership of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern in March.

"Our prime minister made the decision that she did not want what was happening in Italy to happen in New Zealand," Wiles says. In mid-March, as cases were exploding in Italy and Spain, Ardern ordered anyone entering New Zealand into quarantine. At that point, the country had confirmed just six cases. A few days later, on March 19, Ardern shut down travel to the country, essentially banning all foreigners from entering the island nation of 4.8 million.

She took to the national airwaves to explain a four-stage lockdown system that New Zealand would use to confront the health crisis. "I'm speaking to all New Zealanders today to give you as much certainty and clarity as we can as we fight COVID-19," she said in a nationally televised address on March 21.

Ardern called the threat "unprecedented," but she was calm and reassuring. "Here's how we'll know what to do and when," she said as she laid out plans to shut down schools, most businesses and domestic travel.

Wiles at the University of Auckland says that the prime minister did something quite interesting, "which was that unlike many other countries, she never put us on a war footing."

So Ardern's speeches weren't about attacking an invisible enemy — as many world leaders would say.

Instead she called on New Zealanders to confront this crisis by protecting their fellow citizens.

"She talked over and over about us being a team of 5 million and that we all do our part to break these chains of transmission and to eliminate the virus," Wiles says. "I think that has been one of the really crucial things — everybody knowing how they had to behave and that they were behaving for the good of everybody."

Wiles heard the prime minister's calls for everyone to come together so many times that she refers to it as Ardern doing her "united thing."

New Zealand is now reopening most businesses and is even talking about complete elimination of the coronavirus from its territory.

As of late May, New Zealand had had roughly 1,500 cases and fewer than two dozen deaths from COVID-19.

 

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mission27

mission27

Posted
Posted

5/27/2020 MoL Scores:

Methodology and disclaimer: MoL score is a simple metric for measuring rate of spread of the novel coronavirus within communities.  The metric was developed by mission and TLO and has not been subjected to academic peer review.  The MoL looks at a trailing average of daily new cases and compares this to trailing active cases within the community.  These rankings do not represent the opinion of anyone other than mission and TLO and should not be taken as advice of any kind.  Please note while the numbers themselves are objective calculations, smugness and Taylor Swift lyrics may factor into our commentary and decisions on tiers.  The MoL reserves the right to make changes to this methodology at any time.  Please follow all relevant governmental and/or WHO/CDC guidance.  We will defeat this virus.

"I forgot that you existed
And I thought that it would kill me, but it didn't
And it was so nice
So peaceful and quiet"

- Taylor Swift

Smugness is as smugness does.

Tier 1: Outbreak under control, safe to begin relaxing social distancing measures

giphy.gif

Tier 1 countries are pretty,... pretty... pretty good

How to safely open up in Tier 1? Take a look at the MoL method for proper easing, otherwise known as the MoL public health cost benefit matrix.

New Zealand: 0.0 (perfect score still!)

France: 0.2

Netherlands: 0.4

Israel: 0.6

Belgium: 0.7

Italy: 0.9

UK: 1.0

Japan: 1.1

Portugal: 1.1

Spain: 1.2

Australia: 1.6

Switzerland: 1.7

USA: 1.9

Czech Republic: 2.0

Sweden: 2.2

Philippines: 2.8

Singapore: 2.8

South Korea: 2.8

Global: 3.0

Turkey: 3.0

Germany: 3.6

Austria: 4.1

Ireland: 4.1

China: 4.6

Hong Kong: 6.0

Tier 2: New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1

source.gif

Tier 2 countries aren't  doing as well as Tier 1 countries, but eh, we'll give 'em a pass, why not!  Especially since Larry doesn't want to get fatwahed again.

Canada: 3.2 (big league, great job)

Russia: 4.0

Denmark: 5.0 

Tier 3: Countries in this group that are showing increased MoLs have the potential to go deep into the danger zones, but countries with falling MoLs may only be a couple of days from tier 2 status and may have already peaked in gross # of new cases

giphy.gif

These countries could really do a lot better if they followed common decency standards, like washing their hands or respecting wood 

Iran: 10.0

India: 10.4

Brazil: 11.0

Tier 4: Aggressive growth, still likely have not peaked in single day cases, and likely a week or two minimum from peak in deaths (however many of these countries are still slowing down)

source.gif

We feel very bad for the last Tier 4 country remaining on our list, the Mexico.  Its like that time Funkhauser became an orphan at 60 (RIP Funkhauser).

Mexico: 25.4

USA State Level MoLs

image.png

Great job everyone, very good numbers.

MoL Deaths

Slight uptick in deaths today, as expected due to the holiday weekend backlog, but we remain about 54% below the all-time high which is great.

image.png

Canada

image.png

Great job @JBURGE

New all-time low for Quebec, Ontario headed in the right direction, and the country just a few days away from Tier 1 as they start to open up.  Wonderful.

MoL.png

The MoL would like to thank everyone for their contributions to this important work including @ET80 @acowboys62 @dtait93 @Dome @naptownskinsfan @kingseanjohn @Malfatron @Shady Slim @malagabears @daboyle250 @vikesfan89 @ramssuperbowl99 @sdrawkcab321 @Nazgul @kingseanjohn  @TwoUpTwoDown @Xenos @Nex_Gen @FinneasGage @TVScout @seriously27 @N4L and the others who love us so much

We'd even like to thank @pwny @Glen and others for their critical attitude because of the attention it brings to the great work MoL is doing 

@TLO

source.gif

The message of this gif is that the MoL is signing out until tomorrow (although we reserve the right to **** on anyone who questions our authority on these matters)

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Slateman

Slateman

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Xenos said:

The Hobbits are taking down not only Sauron and the One Ring, but also Covid:

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/05/23/861577367/messaging-from-leaders-who-have-tamed-their-countrys-coronavirus-outbreaks

 

I mean, okay. It's a sparsely populated, very homogeneous island with moderate tourism.

Frankly, Vietnam's record with COVID is far more impressive. 

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seriously27

seriously27

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, WizeGuy said:

It's important to note those numbers were from the middle-later April. Im not sure what the percentage is now. Regardless, extremely risky gamble to take when we have little knowledge of the virus. 

Although... going back to the Spanish flu there were a few areas that werent nearly as hard hit by a second wave since a much higher percentage of the population had developed immunity. It's going to be interesting to see what happens in the fall. 

Those numbers were from last week. 

https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-press/nyhetsarkiv/2020/maj/forsta-resultaten-fran-pagaende-undersokning-av-antikroppar-for-covid-19-virus/

https://abcnews.go.com/International/sweden-stayed-open-coronavirus-pandemic-model-future/story?id=70666450

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seriously27

seriously27

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, theJ said:

Devil's advocate though: how are they at testing? We know there's a lot of asymptomatic cases out there. Is that 7% just way underreported?

Just trying to gain a better understanding. 

They are the worst at testing for all the nordic countries but they have certainly met the criteria for the percentage to be an accurate representation of the whole. 

Edited by seriously27
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