Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Ty21]

3 hours ago, ET80 said:

*in... not on.

Nobody here is saying that, but a few are saying "listen to the geniuses, which ain't anyone in this thread - present company included".

 

Some people say I’m way ahead of my time actually. By some people I mean my grandma. She’s way behind her time. 

[Xenos]

Experts rate the risks of 14 Summer activities:

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/23/861325631/from-camping-to-dining-out-heres-how-experts-rate-the-risks-of-14-summer-activit

 

Quote

One big warning: Your personal risk depends on your age and health, the prevalence of the virus in your area, and the precautions you take during any of these activities. Also, many areas continue to restrict the activities described here, so check your local laws.

And there's no such thing as a zero-risk outing right now. As states begin allowing businesses and public areas to reopen, decisions about what's safe will be up to individuals. It can help to think through the risks the way the experts do.

"We can think of transmission risk with a simple phrase: time, space, people, place," explains Dr. William Miller, an epidemiologist at Ohio State University.

Here's his rule of thumb: The more time you spend and the closer in space you are to any infected people, the higher your risk. Interacting with more people raises your risk, and indoor places are riskier than outdoors.

Dr. Emily Landon, hospital epidemiologist and infectious diseases specialist at University of Chicago Medicine, has her own shorthand: "Always choose outdoors over indoor, always choose masking over or not masking, and always choose more space for fewer people over a smaller space."

 

 

[mistakey]

1 hour ago, mission27 said:

I think the issue is as @Outpost31 said people who take a strong stance that the death numbers are meaningfully over or under reported generally seem to be doing so with an agenda and a political bent 

I'm sure there were some deaths missed early on and other places that have classified some deaths they shouldn't have but ultimately what the exact death count is is totally irrelevant to what we do going forward and is basically just used to score political points in one direction or another

Except for you base your expert advice on case fatality rate which is obviously impacted by underreported deaths

[candyman93]

Powerful.

https://mobile.twitter.com/nytimes/status/1264312206914719745

[vikesfan89]

6 minutes ago, candyman93 said:

Powerful.

https://mobile.twitter.com/nytimes/status/1264312206914719745

What i got from that is that golfing is the problem

[TVScout]

The super spreader:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e6.htm

[Leader]

6 hours ago, CBears019 said:

A town near where I work (in law enforcement) had a murder earlier this month.  The victim was shot multiple times and obviously died as a result.  After the autopsy, the medical examiner ruled the cause of death as COVID19-related because he tested positive.  Not the multiple gun shot wounds. I'm not saying this is the case everywhere, but it has happened.

That's absolutely absurd.

Shot dead while carrying a virus that may or may not prove fatal....and some nitwit ME declares the cause of death as COVID19? That makes a total of zero sense.

[incognito_man]

46 minutes ago, Leader said:

That's absolutely absurd.

Shot dead while carrying a virus that may or may not prove fatal....and some nitwit ME declares the cause of death as COVID19? That makes a total of zero sense.

probably because it didn't happen lol

[mission27]

1 hour ago, TVScout said:

The super spreader:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e6.htm

Tbh I'm always a little skeptical of this stuff but realistically itd be very hard to determine that you didn't already have multiple people in the ground infected right?

[mission27]

1 hour ago, candyman93 said:

Powerful.

https://mobile.twitter.com/nytimes/status/1264312206914719745

Sad to think all of these people were alive and well 3 months ago

Of course you could make a similar list of those dead from cancer or auto accidents, but sad nonetheless.  Life's too short.  

[mission27]

2 hours ago, mistakey said:

Except for you base your expert advice on case fatality rate which is obviously impacted by underreported deaths

Eh I think the far bigger variable in the CFR calc is number of cases, not number of deaths.  Deaths could conceivably be off a bit in either direction but we know cases are off by somewhere between 10 and 20 times, and where that falls is going to tell us the CFR.

[acowboys62]

6 hours ago, ET80 said:

A bit late to the "why wear a mask" party but... This sort of sums it up to me.

If you're really that up in arms about wearing a mask in public, why stop there? Why wear pants? Just take 'em off, walk in all Winnie the Pooh style.

Show some commitment, people.

To play devils advocate here...I can’t go to the store wearing a sock over my twig & berries and electrical tape over my nipples.  
 

I can go with pants on though, we all have a pretty good idea of what constitutes pants. I think most sane and rational people (even if they don’t like it) wear masks right now, as mentioned earlier by myself and a few others wrapping a tshirt around your face isn’t a mask in the same way wrapping a scarf around my junk is going to land me in jail.

[acowboys62]

When they count flu deaths isn’t it an average every year because it is 100%
impossible to get a real number? 
 

Why can’t it be true that on one hand they over counted covid deaths for cases where someone was “presumed” and also under counted deaths of people who died at home and were never tested but very well could of had the virus...thus making the current count somewhat of an average? 

[acowboys62]

2 hours ago, candyman93 said:

Powerful.

https://mobile.twitter.com/nytimes/status/1264312206914719745

Now let’s let’s see them do that for cancer, flu, car accidents, gang violence, domestic abuse, etc. 

[mission27]

5/23/2020 MoL Scores:

Methodology and disclaimer: MoL score is a simple metric for measuring rate of spread of the novel coronavirus within communities.  The metric was developed by mission and TLO and has not been subjected to academic peer review.  The MoL looks at a trailing average of daily new cases and compares this to trailing active cases within the community.  These rankings do not represent the opinion of anyone other than mission and TLO and should not be taken as advice of any kind.  Please note while the numbers themselves are objective calculations, smugness and Taylor Swift lyrics may factor into our commentary and decisions on tiers.  The MoL reserves the right to make changes to this methodology at any time.  Please follow all relevant governmental and/or WHO/CDC guidance.  We will defeat this virus.

"There are not many who remember

They say a handful still survive."

- Taylor Swift

Smugness is as smugness does

Tier 1: Outbreak under control, safe to begin relaxing social distancing measures

Tier 1 countries are pretty,... pretty... pretty good

How to safely open up in Tier 1? Take a look at the MoL method for proper easing, otherwise known as the MoL public health cost benefit matrix.

Israel: 0.4

Netherlands: 0.4

France: 0.5

Belgium: 0.8

Japan: 0.8

Italy: 0.9

Portugal: 1.0

UK: 1.0

New Zealand: 1.2

Spain: 1.5

Switzerland: 1.7

Australia: 1.9

South Korea: 2.0

USA: 2.1 

Czech Republic: 2.3

Sweden: 2.4

Philippines: 2.4

Ireland: 2.5

Singapore: 2.8

Turkey: 3.0

Germany: 3.4

Austria: 3.9

China: 4.8

Hong Kong: 6.9

Tier 2: New case growth is minimal suggesting social distancing is working, likely a few weeks away from breaking into tier 1

Tier 2 countries aren't  doing as well as Tier 1 countries, but eh, we'll give 'em a pass, why not!  Especially since Larry doesn't want to get fatwahed again.

Global: 3.1

Canada: 3.4 (new all time low, great job!)

Russia: 4.4

Denmark: 5.1

Tier 3: Countries in this group that are showing increased MoLs have the potential to go deep into the danger zones, but countries with falling MoLs may only be a couple of days from tier 2 status and may have already peaked in gross # of new cases

These countries could really do a lot better if they followed common decency standards, like washing their hands or respecting wood 

India: 10.9

Iran: 11.8

Brazil: 12.8

Tier 4: Aggressive growth, still likely have not peaked in single day cases, and likely a week or two minimum from peak in deaths (however many of these countries are still slowing down)

We feel very bad for the last Tier 4 country remaining on our list, the Mexico.  Its like that time Funkhauser became an orphan at 60 (RIP Funkhauser).

Mexico: 25.5

USA State Level MoLs

Smug!

MoL Deaths

Another solid drop in the death rate which is now 44% below the all-time high of a month ago.  great job!

Canada

Great job @JBURGE

The MoL would like to thank everyone for their contributions to this important work including @ET80 @acowboys62 @dtait93 @Dome @naptownskinsfan @kingseanjohn @Malfatron @Shady Slim @malagabears @daboyle250 @vikesfan89 @ramssuperbowl99 @sdrawkcab321 @Nazgul @kingseanjohn  @TwoUpTwoDown @Xenos @Nex_Gen @FinneasGage @TVScout @seriously27 @N4L and the others who love us so much

We'd even like to thank @pwny @Glen and others for their critical attitude because of the attention it brings to the great work MoL is doing 

@TLO

The message of this gif is that the MoL is signing out until tomorrow (although we reserve the right to **** on anyone who questions our authority on these matters)